Transport Notes
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The goal of Transport Notes series is dissemination of recent experiences and innovations in the World Bank Group’s transport sector operations.
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Publication
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)One statement that can confidently be made about any transport project is that the costs and benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which surrounds the project the probability of a poor outcome can be assessed. In addition, it is often possible to identify ways in which the project can be made more robust, and to ensure that the risks that remain are well managed. Risk and uncertainty analysis is therefore a standard component in the project reporting requirements for Bank projects. Risk and uncertainty analysis also features other in Bank tools, such as the RED model (see Note Low Volume Rural Roads). This note reviews the general principles of risk and uncertainty analysis in transport (Section 1); and outlines the three principal methods which may be used- sensitivity analysis (Sectio -
Publication
Evaluation of Public Sector Contributions to Public-Private Partnership Projects
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)The Bank requires that any public sector contribution to a collaborative effort between the public sector and private enterprises in the transport sector be analyzed and justified in economic terms. This Note will set out the basis for making such an analysis. The general principles underlying this analysis are that: 1) public contributions to public-private partnership (PPP) projects should be justified on the basis of external benefits from the project, compared with the scenario where no public contribution is made. 2) these external benefits are benefits for the wider economy or society which will arise from the project, but which will not be appropriated by the private partner in the contract; 3) by implication, the social welfare gain must be greater than the amount of public money invested multiplied by the cost of public funds. In practice, a range of different reasons can be - and have been - put forward to explain public contributions to PPP projects, including the following: 1) to pay for positive externalities, such as decongestion or improvements in environmental quality; 2) to contribute to the cost of mitigating negative externalities, which private providers often have little incentive to take into account when designing the project; 3) to secure network improvements necessary for economic development or other planning benefits, for which users are in the short term unable to pay. These are considered one by one in Sections 2, 3, and 4. -
Publication
Notes on the Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)In response to many requests for help in the application of both conventional cost benefit analysis in transport and addressing of the newer topics of interest, we have prepared a series of Economic Evaluation Notes that provide guidance on some of issues that have proven more difficult to deal with. The Economic Evaluation Notes are arranged in three groups. The first group (TRN-6 to TRN-10) provides criteria for selection a particular evaluation technique or approach; the second (TRN-11 to TRN-17) addresses the selection of values of various inputs to the evaluation, and the third (TRN-18 to TRN-26) deals with specific problematic issues in economic evaluation. The Notes are preceded by a Framework (TRN-5), that provides the context within which we use economic evaluation in the transport sector. Economic evaluation involves the assessment of the net value of projects and policies. In the transport sector we value projects in terms of their net worth, the difference between the value of their benefits and their costs, both measured so far as is possible in terms of monetary units. This disarmingly simple statement leads to many questions; evaluation by whom, for whom, from what perspective, at what stage. One of the features of transport decisions is that they typically impact on many parties - transport operators, individual transport users, local residents and businesses, land and property owners, national and local taxpayers. -
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Treatment of Pedestrian and Non-Motorised Traffic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)Pedestrians and Non-Motorized Traffic vehicles (NMTs) are part of the complete transport scene and in some cases form a very important aspect of that scene. As with the motorized sector of the transport market, this sector will experience positive and negative impacts as a consequence of a transport investment and the sector therefore needs to be included within the appraisal of that investment. Wheeled NMTs (e.g. bicycles and rickshaws) can experience benefits as smoother roads reduce operating costs and journey times, whether that be in an urban or rural environment. New roads and smoother roads can also lead to mode switching from pedestrian modes to either wheeled NMTs or motorized vehicles, giving both journey time and operating cost savings. An increase in the speed of traffic on an upgraded road may result in an increase in the seriousness of road accidents (i.e. an increase in the average number of fatalities per accident), with pedestrians and NMTs being the vulnerable road user groups. In some situations increases in capacity of urban intersections or urban arterials (e.g. construction of an urban motorway or freeway) may reduce the amount of road space available for NMTs thereby imposing costs (both travel time and operating costs) on that road user group. As with motorized transport, pedestrians and NMTs may benefit from a transport investment through operating cost savings, travel time savings, and accident and safety impacts. The inclusion of benefits to pedestrians and NMTs can form a significant proportion of the total scheme benefits for investments such as low volume rural roads. -
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Evaluation Implications of Sub-Optimum Pricing
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)The note focuses on three specific ways in which sub-optimal pricing can impact on project benefits: 1) through congestion and overcrowding (Section 1); 2) through overpricing and loss of user benefits (Section 2); and 3) through financial deficits which have implications for the rest of the economy (Section 3). Sections 1-3 of the Note seek to give practical advice on each situation, including how to approach the economic analysis of the situation, and the key implications for project appraisal. If pricing policy is not known with certainty at the time of the appraisal, then alternative pricing policies must form part of the risk and uncertainty analysis. This is covered in Section 4. Conclusions are given in Section 5. -
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Notes on the Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)Experience has shown that money compensation payments to individual citizens are ineffective when used alone as a means to achieve the Bank's aims and World Bank for evidence on the Bank's experience]. Instead, the Bank's advice is that compensation payments should be a part of a wider, coordinated package of development assistance. It is not the purpose of this Note to describe how such a package should be developed, or indeed how the package as a whole should be evaluated. Rather, the question addressed in this Note is the narrower one: How should money compensation payments be evaluated? Section 2 begins by asking what costs the payments are intended to compensate for, and on what basis the value of compensation should be estimated. Section 3 continues to consider how institutional arrangements affect the way compensation payments are designed and channeled in practice. Section 4 turns to the benefits of resettlement compensation and Section 5 brings these strands together to consider how compensation payments should be evaluated within the economic evaluation of World Bank transport projects. -
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When and How to Use NPV, IRR, and Modified IRR
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)The Economic Evaluation Notes are arranged in three groups. The first group (TRN-6 to TRN-10) provides criteria for selection a particular evaluation technique or approach; the second (TRN-11 to TRN-17) addresses the selection of values of various inputs to the evaluation, and the third (TRN-18 to TRN-26) deals with specific problematic issues in economic evaluation. The Notes are preceded by a Framework (TRN-5), that provides the context within which we use economic evaluation in the transport sector. All three NPV, IRR, and modified IRR are summary measures of project performance. Each one provides a single figure summarizing the impact of the project on economic welfare. Each of the three measures does, however, give subtly different information: 1) NPV focuses on the total welfare gain over the whole life of the project; and, 2) IRR and Modified IRR focus on the rate at which benefits are realized following an initial transport investment. -
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Treatment of Maintenance
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)Maintenance is an often overlooked aspect of appraisal. The effective treatment of maintenance within an appraisal is, however, fundamental to informing the decision regarding the optimum investment strategy. This is because the nature of the maintenance strategy can have direct implications on operating costs and other benefits (e.g. travel time savings). As such the impact of maintenance within an appraisal extends far beyond a simple consideration of its financial cost. The first Section of this Note introduces the importance the correct treatment of maintenance has with respect to an economic appraisal. Following Sections present the primary components of maintenance costs, and introduce the notion of whole life costing and the fact that there is a risk that maintenance may not occur. Next, the Note discusses the issues associated with deriving future maintenance costs, and further discuss the need for inclusion within the appraisal of, first, delays to transport users during maintenance works, and second, of the amount of induced and re-assigned traffic. The final Section presents a summary of the key points that should be borne in mind with respect to the treatment of maintenance within an economic appraisal. -
Publication
Where to Use Cost Effectiveness Techniques Rather Than Cost Benefit Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)Cost Benefit Analysis, and the measures of economic performance that can be derived from it (see Note 6: When and How to Use NPV, IRR and Adjusted IRR), is the preferred method for demonstrating the economic justification of transport investments. Such an approach, however, relies on the ability to be able to measure costs and benefits in monetary terms (see Note 5: Framework), which renders it problematic for projects where the majority of benefits cannot be readily monetised. Such a project could be a Low Volume Rural Road (see Note 21: Low Volume Rural Roads). In such situations consideration should be given to the use of measures derived from cost effectiveness or weighted cost effectiveness (also known as Multi Criteria Analysis) techniques as the basis for the decision regarding whether to invest or not. Cost effectiveness techniques are also a very useful tool for project screening or ranking. Such a screening process ensures that projects that are subjected to a more detailed analysis (including cost benefit analysis) are those that best fit with the objectives of the investment (e.g. poverty alleviation). Section 1 of this note outlines the situations in which cost effectiveness techniques should be used, whilst Section 2 describes the two main types of approaches. Section 3 discusses the issue of economic viability and cost effectiveness whilst Section 4 presents a summary of recommendations. -
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Treatment of Induced Traffic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)Induced traffic can be an important part of the economic appraisal particularly when the objective of the investment is to stimulate economic development; it's importance, however, is not restricted to such situations. The omission of induced traffic from the economic appraisal, or its incorrect treatment, may lead to either over or underestimations in the user benefits (consumer surplus) of an investment. In addressing this issues, this note, considers: the importance of induced traffic for the economic appraisal (Section 1); what constitutes induced traffic (Section 2); the situations in which induced traffic is likely to be relevant (Section 3) and the manner in which it can be modeled (Section 4) and user benefits calculated when it is present (Section 5). The annexes show the relative importance of including the benefits of induced traffic in the evaluation of an urban transport project; where the standard "rule of one half" breaks down in some situations that are often present in Bank projects, while another shows a numeric integration technique that can be used as a valid alternative to the rule of one half in many of these situations (and coincidently, provides a more precise evaluation even where the "rule of one half" gives an acceptable estimation).