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Publication Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021: Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-20) World BankThe Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia’s slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery.Publication Niger Spring 2021 Economic Update: Maximizing Public Expenditure Efficiency for Rebuilding Better(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-14) World BankThe ongoing health and security crisis have partly undermined the benefits from past years of strengthening economic growth. Sustaining an upward trend over the recent years, real growth stood at 5.9 percent in 2019. However, it fell to 3.6 percent in 2020, because of the pandemic and increasingly violent terrorist attacks. Inflation increased to 3.4 percent in 2020, triggered by supply disruptions and speculative behaviors, combined with food shortages. The economy is projected to rebound in 2021, growing at 5.5 percent, with the reopening of the border with Nigeria and the resumption of large investment projects and a normalization of other supply chains. The large import content of these projects will cause the current account deficit to widen further while completion of the main oil pipeline by 2023 should boost revenue and exports over the medium term. However, GDP per capita in 2021 will be only 1 percent higher than in 2019. Addressing inefficient management of a universal fertilizer subsidy program could generate fiscal savings of 0.15 percent of GDP. Until September 2020 fertilizers were sold by Central Agricultural Input and Equipment Supply Agency (CAIMA) and were on average half universally subsidized without targeting specific farmers or crops. The system was characterized by large inefficiencies, including inefficient fertilizer acquisition cost, incapacity to meet the demand and rising operating expenses. After having removed the management of fertilizers from Caima’s mandate, it is important that the Government finalize the ongoing work with development partners for a fertilizers reform that allows a better targeting the subsidies and gives a greater role for the private sector in the fertilizers supply and distribution.Publication Central African Republic Economic Update, July 2021: Investing in Human Capital to Protect the Future(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07) World BankThe economy of the Central African Republic (CAR) decelerated in 2020 compared to 2019. Despite a relatively contained health impact, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on the country’s economy, with the disruption in global value chains, low external demand, and domestic containment measures that significantly affected trade, transport, and tourism. Nevertheless, CAR’s GDP growth of 0.8 percent has outpaced the average of regional peers (−2.9 percent) and countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) (−1.7 percent). On the supply side, the positive dynamic of the agriculture sector prevented the economy from entering a recession, and the forestry and telecommunications sectors were more resilient than expected. On the demand side, private consumption contracted in 2020, reflecting a decline in household income owing to the pandemic. As a result, the extreme poverty rate increased from 70.7 percent in 2019 to 71.4 percent, affecting a total of more than 3.4 million people, in 2020. CAR’s current account balance (CAD) deteriorated in 2020. The current account deficit widened from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2019 to 8.7 percent of GDP in 2020, driven by weak external demand and private transfers as well as an increased deficit of the balance on goods. With the COVID-19 pandemic, goods exports declined while non-oil imports were boosted by donor-funded investments. CAR’s current account deficit is not expected to be as severe as that of comparator FCV, CEMAC, and Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The capital account balance improved significantly in 2020 due to the rise in external grants, while the financial account surplus shifted into a deficit. The improvement in the capital account has helped narrow the balance of payments deficit and increasing foreign reserves, which reached a level equivalent to about 3.5 months imports at end-2020.Publication Mali Economic Update, Spring 2021: Protecting the Vulnerable during the Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-10) World BankThe twin shocks of the pandemic and the coup pushed the economy into a recession in 2020. Real GDP is estimated to contract by 2.0 percent (4.9 percent in per capita terms) in 2020. The containment measures from mid-March to early May 2020 hampered economic activity in the sectors that source critical imports from abroad, depend on international traveling and those more reliant on face-to-face interactions for service delivery. On the demand side, private consumption declined, due to lower remittance inflows, households’ response to the health hazard, and containment measures. Non-priority public investment was curtailed to accommodate COVID-related expenditures, and donor disengagement after the military coup. Inflation picked up in May and continued to rise due to low cereal output and supply chain disruptions. The fiscal deficit increased to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2020. The pandemic’s economic toll and the slowdown in international trade slowed domestic revenues. Authorities responded with an ambitious COVID-19 emergency response plan (2.3 percent of GDP). Therefore, both the spending increases, and revenue shortfalls contributed to a higher fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, external support from international communities were delayed after the military coup. Public debt subsequently increased to 44.1 percent of GDP. Notwithstanding this increase, Mali remained at moderate risk of debt stress with some space toabsorb shocks (joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), February 2020). The crisis offers an opportunity to build back educational systems stronger and more equitable than before. As rules around social distancing are gradually relaxed, systems need to ensure that schools reopen safely, student dropout is minimized, and learning recovery starts. An immediate policy option to focus on is the development and implementation of remedial education, accelerated learning programs, and revision of the academic calendar and examination schedules to allow effective school continuity particularly in poor and conflict areas. Medium-term policies in the aftermath of the pandemic will be the: (i) enhancement of the immediately established remote learning platforms within the ministry of national education and (ii) development of digital teaching content for each education level in full alignment with the existing curricula. Longer term policies would be to establish a virtual library with an inventory of national and international teaching resources to be used for remote learning programs to be delivered through existing channels (radio, television, mobile phone, and internet). These policies would make the country resilient to future disruptions. Given limited resources, policy prioritization, effective implementation should be emphasized and in line with a general framework of medium-term fiscal consolidation. A COVID-19 response plan was put in place in April 2020, with an uneven level of implementation. Lessons should be learnt with improved oversight of COVID-19 fund execution. Meanwhile, the enduring structural deficit and increasing resort to domestic short-term financing add to the risks on fiscal sustainability, which is further aggravated by the 2020 twin crises. The broad direction for fiscal policy changes points to the need to mobilize more domestic revenue and reform public spending to increase the fiscal space for higher quality services and investments, while reducing the overall deficit.Publication Burkina Faso, 2021 April Economic Update: Protecting the Poor During the Recovery and Beyond(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04) World BankAccording to latest estimates, the economy grew by 2.0 percent in 2020, 4 percentage points less than projected before the onset of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The primary sector grew by 5.2 percent, supported by strong performances of subsistence crops and cotton.. The tertiary sector, the largest component of the economy, contracted by 4.9 percent on account of COVID-19 social distancing measures. Inflation returned to positive territory in 2020 and closed the year above 4 percent. The pandemic had a positive impact on the external sector and a negative impact on the fiscal accounts. In 2020, the trade balance improved by 1.0 percentage point of GDP supported by historically high gold prices and low oil prices. The structurally negative services balance improved by 0.3 percentage points of GDP on account of cheaper electricity imports from neighboring countries. The fiscal deficit as a share of GDP reached 5.2 percent in 2020, an increase from 3.2 percent in 2019. Public debt stood at 47.6 percent of GDP by end-2020. Although many impacts of the COVID-19 shock persist, the economy is projected to continue its recovery in 2021. On the demand side, the recovery is supported by consumption and private investment. With security, humanitarian, health, and social challenges persistingthroughout the year, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain elevated at 5.2 percent of GDP. As concessional funding is finite and no other funding options are available, the Government will have to resort to more expensive borrowing in the regional market, which will shift the composition of the public debt stock towards a majority share of domestic debt.Publication The Gendered Impacts of COVID-19 on Labor Markets in Latin America and the Caribbean(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Cucagna, Emilia; Romero, JavierHigh-frequency phone surveys conducted in 13 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) show that women were 44 percent more likely than men to lose their jobs at the onset of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As the crisis evolved, temporarily unemployed workers started to go back to work. But the difference in job losses among women and men persisted. Also, highly female-intensive sectors - trade, personal services, education, and hospitality - explain 56 percent of all job losses. And the presence of school-age children at home is linked with a rise in job losses among women, but not among men.Publication Madagascar Economic Update, December 2020: Setting a Course for Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) World BankPrior to the pandemic, Madagascar was on sustained recovery path and achieved progress in poverty reduction. The economic revival in the period leading up to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis was supported by political and economic stability, renewed investor confidence, rising integration in key export markets, growing flows of concessional financing and structural reforms. Activity continued to gain strength up until 2019, as public and private sector investments accelerated, while moderate inflation helped support real income and consumer spending. At the same time, budget and current account deficits remained moderate and the currency stabilized in real effective terms. In this context, growth reached 4.4 percent in 2019, its fastest pace in over a decade, with export-oriented sectors such as textiles, mining, and tourism performing particularly well in the run-up to the crisis. Tourism revenues were bolstered by a 19 percent increase in visitor arrivals, reaching a decade high of 375.000. In the primary sector, favorable weather conditions have contributed to a bumper rice harvest and significant gains in agricultural production more generally. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sudden and deep recession, reversing nearly a decade of prior income per capita gains. The combined impact of global trade disruptions and domestic containment measures is estimated to have resulted in a GDP contraction of -4.2 percent in 2020, similar to that observed during the devastating 2009 constitutional crisis. Considering a pre-crisis projection of 5.2 percent in 2020, this means that income per capita would be 9.4 percent lower than expected at the start of the year, erasing all gains achieved since the return to constitutional order in 2013. On the demand side, a sharp drop in exports was the key driver of the decline in activity, while public consumption and investment played a buffeting role. The COVID-19 crisis was an external shock of unprecedented magnitude. The contraction in global activity in 2020, currently estimated at -4.4 percent, would be by far the most severe and broad-based on records, with output shrinking in more than 90 percent of countries around the world, against 83 percent during the great depression in 1930, and 60 percent during the great recession 2009. In the Euro Area—Madagascar’s largest export destination—output is estimated to contract by 7.4 percent. As the global toll of the pandemic continues to increase, millions of people are suffering from diminished prospects and disrupted livelihoods. In the developing world, falling income per capita in the vast majority of countries will interrupt poverty reduction trends and could tip over more than 100 million people into extreme poverty.Publication Guidance Note on Using Learning Assessment in the Process of School Reopening(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-21) Levin, Victoria; Luna Bazaldua, Diego; Liberman, JuliaAs countries consider how to reopen schools safely in the context of COVID-19 (coronavirus), one key question is how to assess students' learning to support learning recovery. The expected magnitude of learning losses, particularly among students with the highest needs, makes it essential for key stakeholders in the education process — policymakers, teachers, school principals, students, and their parents — to determine where students are in their learning trajectory relative to what had been expected prior to the pandemic, so they can adjust instruction and allocate resources accordingly. To collect this information, stakeholders can rely on student learning assessment, which is an essential feedback mechanism in the education system. This note provides key steps that countries with different availability of resources should consider in developing their plans for learning assessment activities to support learning recovery in the context of school reopening. Throughout this note, assessment of student learning is defined as gathering and evaluating information on what students know, understand, and can do to make informed decisions about the next steps in the educational process. In addition, some considerations and country examples for the implementation of high-stakes examinations are discussed. This note concludes with examples of learning assessment activities that countries around the world are planning or implementing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, this note highlights important lessons that can support resilience to future emergencies and crises.Publication CPIA Africa, August 2020: Safeguarding Human Capital during and beyond COVID-19(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-12) World BankThe 2020 Africa Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) report covers the period from January to December 2019. The addition of Somalia brought the number of the region’s International Development Association (IDA)–eligible countries to 39. The overall CPIA score for the region’s 39 IDA-eligible countries came in at 3.1, the same as in the previous three years, in a context of moderating per capita growth. The average scores for most of the CPIA clusters trended down in 2019. While the average score for the economic management cluster was unchanged from last year’s assessment, the average scores for the other three clusters—structural policies, social inclusion, and public management and institutions—declined, indicating that the quality of policies and institutions in the region’s IDA countries weakened in 2019. The weakening of structural policies was reflected in the decline in the quality of trade policy, uneven improvements in the regulations affecting factor and product markets, and further deterioration of the financial sector performance. In the area of social inclusion, many countries experienced a decrease in the quality of service delivery that affects access to and quality of health and education services. In the broader area of governance, limited progress was made in strengthening property rights, and transparency and accountability. In addition, the quality of public administration declined, and financial management systems and revenue mobilization capacity weakened in many countries.Publication Morocco Economic Monitor, July 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) World BankThis report presents the current outlook for Morocco given the recent Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) developments. The COVID-19 shock is, however, abruptly pushing the economy into a severe recession, the first one since 1995. The labor market is facing a shock of historical proportion, with vulnerable workers, including those in the informal sector being particularly affected. The government’s response to date has been swift and decisive. The proactive response has enabled the country to avoid a massive outbreak, thus saving lives. The post-pandemic economic recovery is projected - with unusually large uncertainty - to be a protracted one, with growth only returning to the pre-pandemic trend by 2022. Faced with the risk of a protracted pandemic, moving from mitigation to an adaptation phase is key to ensuring a resilient, inclusive, and growing Moroccan economy. Despite potential volatility in the economic recovery phase, Morocco has an opportunity to build a more sustainable and resilient economy by developing a strategy to adapt, similar to its approach to the environment front.