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How to Maximize the Impact off Adaptive Social Protection in Contexts of Fragility, Conflict, and Violence: Four Operational Lessons from Burkina Faso and Cameroon
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-14) Saidi, Mira
In recent years, violent conflict has spiked significantly, affecting low-income countries in particular, and shaping an increasingly complex fragility landscape. By 2030, over half of the world’s extreme poor are expected to live in countries experiencing fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). Conflict and poverty are strongly interconnected; not only does conflict compound experiences of poverty, but economic instability, resource scarcity, and state weakness also exacerbate conflict dynamics. In the Sahel, one of the poorest and most conflict affected regions in the world, countries additionally face high vulnerability to climate change and other shocks, and a growing influx of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) is placing further strain on limited services and resources.
CEMAC Economic Barometer, November 2024, Vol 7
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-03) World Bank
The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a semi-annual World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level. It includes a focused technical section on a theme of regional relevance. This edition’s special topic provides policy options for the CEMAC countries to address challenges in the forestry sector, such as effectively designing fiscal instruments, improving forest governance, and increasing financial and technical support from the international community. It highlights how fiscal instruments can incentivize sustainable forestry and generate government revenue.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Mounting Burdens on a Crisis-Ridden Country
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-10) World Bank
The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The Monitor places these developments, policies, and findings in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Lebanon.
Algeria Economic Update, Fall 2024: A Holistic Framework for Sustained Export Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-04) World Bank
This Algeria Economic Update reports on the main recent economic developments and policies. It places them in a global and longer term context and assesses the implications of these developments and policy changes for Algeria’s economic prospects. The report is intended for a broad audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals working in/on Algeria. The report is divided into three chapters. Chapter 1 presents macroeconomic developments in Algeria over the year 2023 and the first half of 2024, while Chapter 2 describes the short- and medium-term outlook for the Algerian economy, and Chapter 3 presents macroeconomic considerations in support of non-hydrocarbon export development. This report is based on data available on October 30, 2024.
Djibouti Country Climate and Development Report
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-19) World Bank Group
Climate change threatens Djibouti’s development goals and without effective adaptation, could generate economic losses equivalent to nearly four years of today’s output by mid[1]century. Climate change exposes Djibouti to more frequent extreme heat, drought, and floods. These events threaten the infrastructure and services that serve the vibrant trade sector and that could enable a more diversified economy. Other sectors prioritized for diversification, including fisheries, information and communications technology (ICT), and tourism, are also directly impacted by climate change. Unless Djibouti adapts, climate change will also have a particularly negative impact on the livelihoods of the poor, on workers’ productivity, and on water and food security. This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) estimates that even a limited set of priority adaptation actions may require 1.1 billion in additional funds, including an additional 77 million per year through 2035. Such investment can be consistent with Djibouti’s goal of achieving both growth and debt sustainability, but it needs to be accompanied by economic reform and additional adaptation resources provided on a concessional basis. International support is particularly warranted given the regional importance of the resilience of Djibouti’s economy.
Tunisia Economic Monitor: Equity and Efficiency of Tunisia Tax System - Fall 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-14) World Bank
The Tunisian economy experienced a modest growth of 0.6 percent in the first half of 2024, following zero growth in 2023. By the end of 2024, Tunisia is projected to be the only country in its region with a real GDP still below pre-pandemic levels. The limited recovery in agriculture, coupled with declines in the oil and gas, garments, and construction sectors, hindered economic growth. Below-average rainfall restricted agricultural growth, which only recovered a third of the significant losses from the first half of 2023. The garment sector suffered due to reduced demand from the European Union, Tunisia's main export market. Oil and gas production continued its decade-long decline due to a lack of new investments, and the construction sector was impacted by limited domestic demand and challenging external financing conditions.
Senegal Country Climate and Development Report
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-05) World Bank Group
Climate action offers an opportunity to safeguard development gains and accompany the ambitious transformation Senegal is embarking on to achieve its objective of reaching middle income status in the next decade. While the country was among the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), poverty reduction was slow, vulnerabilities persisted, and inequalities increased. In addition, overall productivity remained low, with lagging structural transformation, high informality, and low job creation. To attain its middle-income goal, Senegal must initiate a series of reforms for a productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth model, with climate considerations at the center given the country’s high vulnerability. Senegal’s high climate vulnerability is caused by the country’s coastal exposure and reliance on natural resources for food, jobs, and growth (partly a consequence of its slow structural transformation). With temperatures soaring, precipitation expected to decrease, and erosion threatening 75 percent of the coastline at term, Senegal’s population and assets are under high risk. The poorest are particularly vulnerable, with 55 percent of total households teetering on the edge of poverty because of recurrent shocks. Without action, annual economic losses could reach 3-4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as soon as 2030 and further increase to 9.4 percent by 2050, wiping years of per capita income growth and eroding any potential human capital accumulation. Overall, climate change could push two more million Senegalese in poverty by mid-century. Building resilience and leveraging the low-carbon economy will help Senegal realizing its growth ambitions, contributing to a more productive, sustainable, and inclusive development pathway. The macro-economic analysis for this CCDR finds that adaptation measures in selected sectors could bring GDP gains of about 2 percent by 2030, and between 0.5 and 1 percent afterwards (for climate financing needs of about 0.9 percent of GDP in the period to 2030 and 0.1 percent afterwards). Adaptation could also reduce poverty headcount, with 40 percent less people pushed into poverty by climate change compared to no adaptation action. In addition, emission reductions could reach 20MtCO2e per year over the period to 2050, from interventions in forestry, improved cooking services, urban transport, waste management, and energy production. The energy transition provides an opportunity to meet both development and climate objectives, exceeding NDC targets and putting the country well on track for net zero by 2050, but significant downside risks remain, linked to delays in the deployment and financing availability for renewable generation and domestic gas. Senegal’s formidable renewable energy potential (chiefly around solar) offers the lowest cost generation option to meet rising energy demand while accelerating decarbonization. At term, the country could play a leading role in decarbonizing the region though export opportunities and bolster resilience across the regional grid. In the short term, given constraints to the fast deployment of renewables, the transitional use of domestic gas will help phase out expensive and high-emitting coal and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) generation, while balancing the electricity system and lowering the cost of electricity. Climate action will require a financing of US$8.2 billion over 2025-30 (in present value, at 6 percent per year), or 4.5 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period, and US$10.6 billion over 2031-50 (in present value terms), or 2.0 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period. Water security, sustainable (urban) transport, and the energy transition account for the largest share. Importantly, climate action is expected to bring significant benefits over time, beyond climate adaptation and mitigation – including health or jobs, (as in the primary sector, with 155,000 jobs created, of which 80 percent in agriculture). Many benefits could not be properly estimated, implying that the returns from climate action might well be underestimated.
Gabon Economic Update: Designing Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Forestry
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-29) World Bank
The Gabon Economic Update is an annual World Bank publication that presents an overview of the evolving macroeconomic position in Gabon, followed by a detailed exploration of a specific topic in each edition. The first chapter analyzes recent economic developments, key development challenges, as well as the macroeconomic outlook and risks for Gabon’s future growth. It presents policy actions that could help strengthen fiscal and debt sustainability, contain food inflation, promote job creation, and sustain a resilient growth path. The second chapter of this year’s economic update has a special focus dedicated to fiscal policies for the forestry sector. This chapter analyzes how fiscal policy reforms for forestry can contribute to generating more fiscal revenues, creating more jobs, and promoting sustainable production methods. This report is based on data available as of May 2024.
Central African Republic Country Climate and Development Report
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23) World Bank Group
The Central African Republic (CAR) Climate Change and Development Report (CCDR) provides an in-depth analysis of the country’s vulnerability to climate change and its implications for sustainable development. The report identifies key challenges, including frequent extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, deforestation, and weak institutional capacity. These challenges threaten the livelihoods of rural populations, exacerbate food insecurity, and hinder economic development. However, the CCDR also highlights significant opportunities for CAR to transition toward a more resilient and sustainable future. By promoting climate-smart agriculture, sustainable forest management, and renewable energy development, the country can mitigate the effects of climate change while unlocking new economic growth avenues. The report provides strategic recommendations to strengthen institutional capacities, integrate climate action into national development plans, and mobilize climate finance to support resilience-building initiatives. The CCDR serves as a roadmap for operationalizing climate action in CAR, calling for stronger governance, enhanced stakeholder engagement, and innovative financing mechanisms to help the country adapt to climate challenges while promoting sustainable development.
Djibouti Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Strengthening the Sustainability and Equity of Public Finances
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22) World Bank
This edition of the Djibouti Economic Monitor (DEM) is part of a program of biannual reports analyzing Djibouti’s development trends and constraints. The aim of each issue is to present the country’s recent economic developments (chapter 1), as well as the medium-term economic outlook and the main risks that accompany it (chapter 2). This edition also includes two thematic chapters of interest to the public. The first deals with the redistributive effects and potential efficiency gains of Djibouti’s budgetary system (chapter 3). The second deals with the efficiency of public spending in the road sector (chapter 4). The ECB aims to share information and stimulate debate among those interested in and working to improve Djibouti’s economic management. It seeks to be accessible to non-specialists to be useful to a wide range of stakeholders.