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G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-07-01) World Bank Group
The five countries of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger (the G5) in the Sahel region of Africa are among the least developed countries in the world. The now regular and growing climate shocks are causing large losses in outputs, reducing human capital accumulation, and leading to potentially devastating ecological and economic tipping points in the region. This World Bank country climate development report (CCDR) has examined the most critical actions and policy changes needed to accelerate the region's economic recovery, sustainable and inclusive development, and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. This report has three main messages. First, the opportunities for a resilient and lower-carbon development of the G5 countries are significant. They can reverse environmental degradation and maximize the benefits of climate action for the poor. Second, rapid, resilient, and inclusive growth is both the best form of adaptation to climate change and the best strategy for meeting development goals in an effective, sustainable, and productive manner. Third, the costs of inaction are far greater than the costs of action. Early and targeted action on policies and programs presented in this report can move the G5 Sahel countries towards a greener, more resilient, prosperous, and inclusive future.
Niger Spring 2021 Economic Update: Maximizing Public Expenditure Efficiency for Rebuilding Better
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-14) World Bank
The ongoing health and security crisis have partly undermined the benefits from past years of strengthening economic growth. Sustaining an upward trend over the recent years, real growth stood at 5.9 percent in 2019. However, it fell to 3.6 percent in 2020, because of the pandemic and increasingly violent terrorist attacks. Inflation increased to 3.4 percent in 2020, triggered by supply disruptions and speculative behaviors, combined with food shortages. The economy is projected to rebound in 2021, growing at 5.5 percent, with the reopening of the border with Nigeria and the resumption of large investment projects and a normalization of other supply chains. The large import content of these projects will cause the current account deficit to widen further while completion of the main oil pipeline by 2023 should boost revenue and exports over the medium term. However, GDP per capita in 2021 will be only 1 percent higher than in 2019. Addressing inefficient management of a universal fertilizer subsidy program could generate fiscal savings of 0.15 percent of GDP. Until September 2020 fertilizers were sold by Central Agricultural Input and Equipment Supply Agency (CAIMA) and were on average half universally subsidized without targeting specific farmers or crops. The system was characterized by large inefficiencies, including inefficient fertilizer acquisition cost, incapacity to meet the demand and rising operating expenses. After having removed the management of fertilizers from Caima’s mandate, it is important that the Government finalize the ongoing work with development partners for a fertilizers reform that allows a better targeting the subsidies and gives a greater role for the private sector in the fertilizers supply and distribution.
Mali Economic Update, Spring 2021: Protecting the Vulnerable during the Recovery
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-10) World Bank
The twin shocks of the pandemic and the coup pushed the economy into a recession in 2020. Real GDP is estimated to contract by 2.0 percent (4.9 percent in per capita terms) in 2020. The containment measures from mid-March to early May 2020 hampered economic activity in the sectors that source critical imports from abroad, depend on international traveling and those more reliant on face-to-face interactions for service delivery. On the demand side, private consumption declined, due to lower remittance inflows, households’ response to the health hazard, and containment measures. Non-priority public investment was curtailed to accommodate COVID-related expenditures, and donor disengagement after the military coup. Inflation picked up in May and continued to rise due to low cereal output and supply chain disruptions. The fiscal deficit increased to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2020. The pandemic’s economic toll and the slowdown in international trade slowed domestic revenues. Authorities responded with an ambitious COVID-19 emergency response plan (2.3 percent of GDP). Therefore, both the spending increases, and revenue shortfalls contributed to a higher fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, external support from international communities were delayed after the military coup. Public debt subsequently increased to 44.1 percent of GDP. Notwithstanding this increase, Mali remained at moderate risk of debt stress with some space toabsorb shocks (joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), February 2020). The crisis offers an opportunity to build back educational systems stronger and more equitable than before. As rules around social distancing are gradually relaxed, systems need to ensure that schools reopen safely, student dropout is minimized, and learning recovery starts. An immediate policy option to focus on is the development and implementation of remedial education, accelerated learning programs, and revision of the academic calendar and examination schedules to allow effective school continuity particularly in poor and conflict areas. Medium-term policies in the aftermath of the pandemic will be the: (i) enhancement of the immediately established remote learning platforms within the ministry of national education and (ii) development of digital teaching content for each education level in full alignment with the existing curricula. Longer term policies would be to establish a virtual library with an inventory of national and international teaching resources to be used for remote learning programs to be delivered through existing channels (radio, television, mobile phone, and internet). These policies would make the country resilient to future disruptions. Given limited resources, policy prioritization, effective implementation should be emphasized and in line with a general framework of medium-term fiscal consolidation. A COVID-19 response plan was put in place in April 2020, with an uneven level of implementation. Lessons should be learnt with improved oversight of COVID-19 fund execution. Meanwhile, the enduring structural deficit and increasing resort to domestic short-term financing add to the risks on fiscal sustainability, which is further aggravated by the 2020 twin crises. The broad direction for fiscal policy changes points to the need to mobilize more domestic revenue and reform public spending to increase the fiscal space for higher quality services and investments, while reducing the overall deficit.
Burkina Faso, 2021 April Economic Update: Protecting the Poor During the Recovery and Beyond
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04) World Bank
According to latest estimates, the economy grew by 2.0 percent in 2020, 4 percentage points less than projected before the onset of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The primary sector grew by 5.2 percent, supported by strong performances of subsistence crops and cotton.. The tertiary sector, the largest component of the economy, contracted by 4.9 percent on account of COVID-19 social distancing measures. Inflation returned to positive territory in 2020 and closed the year above 4 percent. The pandemic had a positive impact on the external sector and a negative impact on the fiscal accounts. In 2020, the trade balance improved by 1.0 percentage point of GDP supported by historically high gold prices and low oil prices. The structurally negative services balance improved by 0.3 percentage points of GDP on account of cheaper electricity imports from neighboring countries. The fiscal deficit as a share of GDP reached 5.2 percent in 2020, an increase from 3.2 percent in 2019. Public debt stood at 47.6 percent of GDP by end-2020. Although many impacts of the COVID-19 shock persist, the economy is projected to continue its recovery in 2021. On the demand side, the recovery is supported by consumption and private investment. With security, humanitarian, health, and social challenges persistingthroughout the year, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain elevated at 5.2 percent of GDP. As concessional funding is finite and no other funding options are available, the Government will have to resort to more expensive borrowing in the regional market, which will shift the composition of the public debt stock towards a majority share of domestic debt.
Chad Economic and Poverty Update under COVID-19, Spring 2020
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03) Tchana Tchana, Fulbert; Kassim, Olanrewaju; Savadogo, Aboudrahyme; Ouedraogo, Aissatou; Coulibaly, Mohamed
Up to February 2020, Chad’s economy continued its gradual, but mild recovery, supported by a substantial increase in oil and agriculture production. Since March 2020, like in the rest of the world, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically changed Chad’s macroeconomic outlook. Chad’s economic prospects have not only been clouded, but they remain subject to considerable downside risks. To mitigate the negative impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Chad, the authorities announced economic and social measures to support households and private companies in recent months. The authorities are to continue to strengthen some measures already taken while introducing new measures to protect lives, livelihoods, and the future.
Leveraging Export Diversification in Fragile Countries: The Emerging Value Chains of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Guinea
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01-30) Lopez-Calix, Jose R.
Despite multiple past efforts, fragile Sub-Saharan African economies such as those of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Guinea still rank among the least diversified worldwide, with natural resources constituting a high share of their gross domestic product or exports. Large-scale production of gold for Mali, oil for Chad, uranium for Niger, and bauxite for Guinea offers substantial opportunities, but also has major shortcomings. Conclusive evidence shows poor economic performance by resource-rich but fragile Sub-Saharan African countries. The primary reason is not only their high vulnerability to external shocks, but the greed or grievances that typically lead to rents appropriation by a small group of elites in countries that are prone to conflict. Leveraging Export Diversifi cation in Fragile Countries explores the following questions: What are Mali’s, Chad’s, Niger’s, and Guinea’s main constraints to export diversification as perceived by key exporting firms? How it could be beneficial for these countries to target certain emerging export products? Are their current interventions to promote global value chain (GVC) adequate? What lessons can be extracted from specific cases? How can trade and logistic policies favor (or hamper) export diversification–led growth? The book lays the groundwork for effective step-by-step multidimensional policies to propel export diversification in fragile economies that are hindered not only by poor governance and weak institutions, but also by their landlocked position (except Guinea), small domestic markets, and business-unfriendly environments. Recognizing that traditional project interventions in these countries have had limited success, mainly due to their unidimensional focus on single components of an agricultural value chain, the book proposes a GVC 2.0 cluster-based approach to export diversification, in which complementary efforts attract foreign firms and public investment in support of agribusiness. Promising pilot examples of joint implementation plans among multiple donors, risk-sharing facilities, and agribusiness clusters provide valuable insights into recent global value chain developer interventions.
Mali Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11-27) World Bank Group
This document provides an investment plan for climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in Mali, developed with support of the AAA Initiative and the World Bank, and technical assistanceof the International Center for Tropical Agriculture, the World Agroforestry Centre and the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture, Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS). It identifies specific interventions that define on-the-ground action that are consistent with Mali’s NDC and national agricultural strategy, which can be funded by public and private sector partners. CSA interventions are designed to increase agricultural productivity, to help farmers, livestock keepers and fisher-people adapt and build resilience to climate risks, and, where appropriate, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.This plan includes a set of 12 key CSA investments for Mali that were developed with strong stakeholder engagement, expert input and scientific evidence. This plan is not intended to be comprehensive but can further include additional projects when more funds will be available. The plan presents a situation analysis of Mali’s national policies, plans and programs in relation to key climate risks, which form the context for key prioritized interventions. Designed project concepts are developed for each of these key investments, including the main project objectives, components and implementation arrangements. These provide a tangible set of project concepts for potential investors and donors to consider for funding. Finally, a general framing for developing a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework for the CSA investment plan (CSAIP) is provided, showing how CSA outcomes relate to other M&E frameworks and other monitoring activities for national-level development priorities.The CSAIP provides the context and evidence for the importance of these projects, and details how they can be economically beneficial and provide food security to the people of Mali. This can help spur investment and funding for CSA to help Mali deliver on its NDC and other national targets.
The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank; and Agence Française de Développement, 2015-06-19) Marc, Alexandre; Verjee, Neelam; Mogaka, Stephen
This book seeks to critically examine the challenges of fragility and security in West Africa, along with the factors of resilience. It seeks to investigate key drivers of conflict and violence, and the way in which they impact the countries of the subregion. Along with emerging threats and challenges, these include the challenge of youth inclusion; migration; regional imbalances; extractives; the fragility of political institutions and managing the competition for power; security; and land. The book explores how the subregion, under the auspices of the regional organization ECOWAS has become a pioneer on the continent in terms of addressing regional challenges. This book also seeks to identify key lessons in the dynamics of resilience against political violence and civil war, drawn from countries such as Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Cote d’Ivoire that can be useful for countries around the world in the midst of similar situations. Finally, it draws on knowledge and findings from a series background papers written by leading experts, and provides insights from the perspectives of academics and development practitioners.
Land Delivery Systems in West African Cities : The Example of Bamako, Mali: L’exemple de Bamako
(Washington, DC: World Bank; and Agence Française de Développement, 2015-03-18) Durand-Lasserve, Alain; Durand-Lasserve, Maÿlis; Selod, Harris
Urban and peri-urban land markets in rapidly expanding West African cities operate within and across different coexisting tenure regimes and involve complex procedures to obtain or make land available for housing. Because a structured framework lacks for the analysis of such systems, this book proposes a systemic approach and applies it to Bamako and its surrounding areas. The framework revolves around the description of land delivery channels: starting from the status of tenure when the land is first placed in circulation for residential use, it identifies the processes whereby tenure can be improved, the types of transactions that take place along the way, and interactions between land delivery channels.
Private Health Sector Assessment in Mali : The Post-Bamako Initiative Reality
(World Bank, 2011) Lamiaux, Mathieu; Rouzaud, François; Woods, Wendy
This country assessment of the private health sector in Mali is part of a series of studies designed to deepen understanding of ways to enhance the health policy framework, business environment, and investment climate in which the private health sector operates in African countries. The Malian health system has evolved dramatically since the middle of the 1980s. A large part of the analysis in this report relies on the reprocessing and the mining of existing databases, the financial and macroeconomic models based on those data, and elements reconstructed through triangulation. Those calculations proved indispensable for assessing the main demographic trends in the private sector, for estimating the growth of community centers (CSCOMs) and private mutual insurance, and identifying how to reinforce them. The growth of the private sector is further held back by insufficient educational preparation for practice in the private sector and in rural areas. For-profit and not-for-profit health care providers, pharmacies, and schools should be given beefier access to funding during start-up. Other financial engineering strategies (participation, etc.) could also be devised. The government of Mali has an opportunity to take advantage the large and dynamic private health sector in contributing to its national health care objectives and outcomes. The study describes the various instruments of stewardship towards the private sector that could be used such as information, regulations, financing and direct provision of public services in areas of significant market failure.