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São Tomé and Príncipe - Unpacking Migration Dynamics: Critical Issues and Policy Recommendations
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) Monsalve Montiel, Emma Mercedes; Kroll, Guillaume; Barros Barbosa, Barbara; Mawete, Delfim Mampassi E. Martins; Boly, Mohamed
São Tomé and Príncipe (STP), a lower-middle-income small island nation, is undergoing a significant wave of emigration, primarily driven by limited job opportunities and economic prospects, particularly among younger generations. This paper explores migration's drivers, dynamics, and impacts on the country’s economy and social fabric, drawing on a combination of primary and secondary data sources. These include local emigration records, the national social registry, the latest household budget survey, global estimates of migrant stocks and remittance flows, and focus group discussions with migrant families. The findings reveal that at least 18 percent of STP’s population now resides abroad, with numbers growing rapidly. Migration is increasingly dominated by young individuals moving to Portugal, attracted by shared linguistic and cultural ties and facilitated by a recent Community of Portuguese Language Countries mobility agreement. However, migration currently delivers limited economic benefits to STP, as remittances are low, irregular, and constrained by high transfer costs, inadequate financial infrastructure, and migrants’ precarious employment abroad. Socially, migration may also disrupt family structures, particularly affecting children who face challenges in care and emotional wellbeing. Policy recommendations include enhancing migrants’ employability, exploring bilateral migration partnerships, strengthening migration management systems, improving remittance services, and supporting families who remain in the country through social assistance.
World Bank Annual Report 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) World Bank
This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
Poverty, Shared Prosperity, and Equity Update - Guinea Bissau
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-05) World Bank
Poverty increased by 2.8 percentage points between 2018 and 2021 in Guinea Bissau. Trends in poverty between 2018 and 2021 have largely gone in the same direction in urban and rural areas but remain higher in rural areas. Although overall consumption growth contracted in both rural and urban areas, rural households experienced a slightly larger contraction than urban areas. However, growth in consumption is observed among the poorest households especially in urban areas - with annualized growth rates of up to 6 percent for households in the ninth centile of the distribution. In rural areas on the other hand, annualized consumption growth is negative across most of the distribution- but more (less) pronounced for the richest (poorest) households. As a result, Guinea Bissau recorded a slight decline in consumption inequality during the period - driven by larger reduction in inequality in urban areas, mainly Bissau.
Guinea-Bissau Economic Update, Spring 2024: Retiring the Fiscal Risk
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-13) World Bank
The Guinea-Bissau Economic Update monitors significant recent economic developments in the country, highlighting the key structural challenges Guinea-Bissau faces in its pursuit of inclusive and sustained growth.
Distributional Impacts of Brazil’s Tax Reform: scenarios regarding Cesta Básica exemption
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-31) Vale, Ricardo; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Fleury, Eduardo; Trzcinski, Kajetan
A consumption tax reform in Brazil has been recently approved by the House of Representatives, providing a full tax exemption for the yet undefined ‘National Basic Basket’ of goods (cesta basica nacional), alongside a cashback scheme that is yet to be determined. This note simulates the distributional impacts of different fiscally neutral scenarios of reduced rates and exemptions. The authors show that the exemption of taxes for food and personal care goods (such as those suggested by Law 10,925) would benefit the most vulnerable. Nonetheless, overall expenditures on certain items that are being considered for inclusion in the cesta are relatively concentrated on households in the top decile of the income distribution. Thus, a blanket exemption on Cesta Basica items may benefit the richest more in absolute terms. If the list of items in the exempted Cesta Basica is shortened and the equivalent resources of the potential forgone revenues are returned into a targeted cashback scheme, a far less regressive indirect tax system could be achieved.
Brazil Systematic Country Diagnostic: Update
(Washington, D.C., 2023-10-11) World Bank
This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) update argues that development challenges identified in SCD1 remain relevant. Moreover, there is a renewed urgency to build the capacity of individuals to generate income and a reinforced need for timely action in a transition to a greener economy. The update builds on the evidence collected in a long series of recently published analytical reports to review the challenges identified in SCD1 and inform the definition of the update’s challenges. The first constraint is complemented by the definition of another challenge so that not only the need to have productive jobs is highlighted, but also the poverty‐reduction prerequisite of building the income‐generating capacity of all individuals (through human, natural, and financial capital) is explicitly stated. The third constraint is also expanded to underscore Brazil’s need to address increased exposure to climate change risks in a timely manner. The update identified four development challenges that must be overcome, which are linked to three desired high‐level outcomes (HLOs). These outcomes, reflecting transformative changes that are critical to achieving the twin goals, are defined as long‐term sustained improvements in the well‐being of the poorest and most vulnerable. The HLOs are: (i) increased access to high quality job opportunities; (ii) improved households’ accumulation and use of productive assets; and (iii) reduced vulnerability to climate shocks.
The World Bank Annual Report 2022: Helping Countries Adapt to a Changing World
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022) World Bank
The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submit the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
Recovering Growth: Rebuilding Dynamic Post‐COVID-19 Economies amid Fiscal Constraints
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-10-06) World Bank
After its worst economic crisis in 100 years, Latin America and the Caribbean countries are emerging from the COVID‐19 pandemic. The need to recover dynamic, inclusive, and sustainable growth to redress both the legacy of the pandemic and long‐standing social needs has never been more acute. However, despite progress in some areas, the region is facing a weaker recovery than expected given the favorable international tailwinds and is likely return to the low growth rates of the 2010s. Moreover, growth could be further slowed by both internal and external factors: the emergence of a new variant of the virus, a rise in international interest rates to combat global inflation, and high levels of debt in both the private and public sector. Beyond offering the current macroeconomic outlook of the region and the near‐term challenges it faces, this report explores three broad areas where growth‐advancing policies and reforms could be undertaken within a constrained fiscal context: mobilizing sources of revenue that appear to be growth-neutral; improving public spending efficiency to free up resources for other purposes; and reallocating spending to areas with highest growth and social impact.
Mozambique - Country Economic Memorandum: Reigniting Growth for All
(Washington, DC, 2021-10) World Bank
Mozambique has experienced rapid growth for over two decades. Growth accelerated remarkably following the end of the civil war, averaging 7.9 percent over 1993-2015, among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, growth decelerated sharply following the hidden debt crisis in 2016, which led to a crisis of economic governance and a protracted economic slowdown, with growth falling to 3 percent in 2016-2019. The growth slowdown has been further exacerbated by the natural disasters in 2019, the insurgency in Northern Mozambique, escalating since 2017, and the global pandemic since 2020. Mozambique’s existing growth strategy has been limited in its capacity to generate productive jobs and support accelerated poverty reduction. However, the discovery of some of the largest natural gas (LNG) reserves in the world is expected to provide Mozambique with a transformative opportunity for sustained and inclusive growth. The Mozambique Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) assesses Mozambique’s current growth model and presents a set of recommendations to: (i) make the best use of the non-renewable natural resource revenues, which includes putting in place an adequate policy and institutional framework well ahead of the revenue windfalls from the LNG sector; and (ii) promote growth in non-extractive sectors, accompanied by spatial transformation, and improved agricultural productivity. The report consists of five chapters. Chapter one provides an overview of Mozambique’s current growth model, asking what’s driving growth and outlining why this model needs rethinking. Chapter two provides analysis of the potential impact of Mozambique’s resource boom on GDP, exports, revenue, and employment, and discusses how to make good use of the opportunities and manage the associated risks. Chapter three tells Mozambique’s growth story from a spatial perspective. It constructs a unique district-by-district sectoral GDP database to identify the main growth nodes in Mozambique and understand why there is a weak link between growth and poverty reduction. The services sector is the subject of chapter four, exploring how to overcome bottlenecks to deliver on its potential to drive growth in Mozambique. Chapter five continues this theme, examining the challenges posed to private sector growth by weak governance and rising corruption. All five chapters make policy recommendations for the way forward.
The World Bank Annual Report 2021: From Crisis to Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Recovery
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-10-01) World Bank
The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submits the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.