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Opportunities for All: Brazil Policy Notes 2022

(Washington, DC, 2022-12) World Bank

This package of Public Policy Notes is directed to Brazilian policy makers and society to present the World Bank Group’s overview of key challenges facing the country at this juncture, and possible ways forward to address them. We present an agenda prioritized around four issues of core relevance to Brazil’s recovery and its future resilience. First is the goal of financing development sustainably given the immediate challenge of situating the country’s enormous growth, inclusion and climate action needs within a credible macroeconomic framework and efficient and effective fiscal policies. The second theme addressed in this note is building opportunities through productivity-led growth. With the growing reliance of Brazilians on social assistance policies, it is critical to keep sight of growth and jobs as the most important vehicles for the dignity and upward mobility of the poor. Third is increasing the capabilities and economic inclusion of the poor so that they are better able to capture the opportunities that come with growth. Thefourth theme we address in this note is meeting Brazil’s potential as a as a leader in green and climate friendly development. This document is accompanied by a package of six policy presentations and an underlying set of more detailed policy reports that can be accesses here: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/brazil.
New Approaches to Closing the Fiscal Gap

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10-04) World Bank

As the COVID‐19 crisis recedes, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is back to work and looking forward. Reported deaths related to the pandemic are low and have plausibly converged to global levels. Yet low vaccination rates in some countries leave them vulnerable to new variants. In most countries, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment have fully recovered their 2019 levels, although forecasted growth rates might be said to be “resiliently mediocre”: banking systems appear sound, and rising debt burdens are manageable so far, but growth is not expected to exceed the low levels of the 2010 decade. Poverty in terms of income (monetary poverty) has largely receded with the economic recovery, but the longer‐term scars of the pandemic in terms of education and health have planted deep seeds of future inequality. Redressing these problems and undertaking the structural reforms needed to reach higher levels of growth and reduce poverty remain central on the policy agenda. The new and unwelcome entrant in the policy space is inflation. While comparable to advanced country levels and well managed by regional monetary authorities, inflation nonetheless is being propelled by forces that may give it more staying power than originally hoped. Finally, public deficits induced by the pandemic and the need to finance critical government programs and directions have opened a fiscal gap and led to constrained fiscal space. The need to close the fiscal gap, put debt on a sustainable footing, and generate fiscal space to finance necessary physical and social investments has led to a search for new revenues and in particular to pressure to increase income taxes. In looking at any tax hike, concerns center on the possible depressive effects on growth, overall progressivity, and possible incentives for informality. This report presents new evidence on these effects for value added taxes (VAT) and income taxes. It also advocates for steps to cut wasteful government spending and increase government efficiency - both to generate substantial resources and as an entry point to a broader agenda of state modernization and generating public trust.
Internet Access and Use in Latin America and the Caribbean: From the LAC High Frequency Phone Surveys 2021

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) World Bank ; United Nations Development Programme

While most households in Latin America and the Caribbean use mobile broadband via smartphones, expensive fees and poor service quality pose major obstacles for potential users. In addition, power outages are a challenge for nearly 40 percent of existing mobile broadband users. Addressing the region’s need for faster, cheaper, and more reliable internet connections is thus a policy and investment priority. There are persistent and significant gaps in digital infrastructure between countries in the region, as well as weighty rural-urban gaps within some countries. Bridging these digital divides will be key to inclusive digital transformation. Households with tertiary education are on average more connected (with better quality service and higher expenditures on data) compared to the rest of the population. As education level is correlated with income, digital inequalities mirror and may amplify existing social inequalities – underscoring the critical need to address them. Over two-thirds of connected households in the region are concerned about privacy and security when using the internet. However, households on average across Latin America and the Caribbean still reported increasing their use of the internet amid the pandemic, suggesting that neither issue poses a barrier to their internet use at present.
All Drops in the Bucket for Universalization: Public Expenditure Review of Water and Sanitation in Brazil

(Washington, DC, 2022-03) World Bank

Brazil has a pressing need for better water supply and sanitation services (WSS), but in recent years public investment in the sector has been declining both in real terms and as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) and is often spent behind schedule and inefficiently. WSS budgets are allocated to states with higher populations, leaving behind rural areas. Federal and state resources must be aligned to incentive inclusion through WSS investments and improvements in service providers’ operational efficiency.
World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable Recovery

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-15) World Bank

World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable Recovery examines the central role of finance in the economic recovery from COVID-19. Based on an in-depth look at the consequences of the crisis most likely to affect low- and middle-income economies, it advocates a set of policies and measures to mitigate the interconnected economic risks stemming from the pandemic—risks that may become more acute as stimulus measures are withdrawn at both the domestic and global levels. Those policies include the efficient and transparent management of nonperforming loans to mitigate threats to financial stability, insolvency reforms to allow for the orderly reduction of unsustainable debts, innovations in risk management and lending models to ensure continued access to credit for households and businesses, and improvements in sovereign debt management to preserve the ability of governments to support an equitable recovery.
The World Bank Annual Report 2022: Helping Countries Adapt to a Changing World

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022) World Bank

The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submit the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
A Roadmap for Climate Action in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021-2025

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022) World Bank Group

In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the rapidly changing climate is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather‑related events. The year 2020 saw the most catastrophic fire season over the Pantanal region and a record number of storms during the Atlantic cyclone season. Eta and Iota, two category 4 hurricanes, affected more than 8 million people in Central America, causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. In Honduras, annual average losses due to climate‑related shocks are estimated at 2.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In rankings of the impacts of extreme weather events from 2000 to 2019, five Caribbean nations figure among the top 20 globally in terms of fatalities per capita, while in terms of economic losses as a share of GDP eight of the top 20 countries are in the Caribbean. Extreme precipitation events, which result in floods and landslides, are projected to intensify in magnitude and frequency due to climate change, with a 1.5°C increase in mean global temperature projected to result in an increase of up to 200 percent in the population affected by floods in Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina; 300 percent in Ecuador; and 400 percent in Peru. Climate shocks reduce the income of the poorest 40 percent by more than double the average of the LAC population and could push an estimated 2.4–5.8 million people in the region into extreme poverty by 2030.
The Science of Reading in Practice: An Analysis of Instructional Materials for Literacy in Selected States and Municipalities in Brazil

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

The goal of this study is to assess if literacy practices in the highest-performing education systems in Brazil are aligned with the Science of Reading evidence. By doing so, the study aims to provide practical examples of evidence-based literacy instruction that can be helpful for low and middle-income countries. This report is guided by the following questions: What is the degree of structure and detail of skills in the curricula? What skills should be taught and in which order? How do these skills compare with the World Bank’s Early Grade Reading Rainbow model 20? What is the level of guidance offered to teachers on what to teach and how does this guidance appear in the teaching material? How aligned are the curriculum, textbooks, teacher materials, and monitoring tools? The intended audience for this report includes education actors responsible for designing and implementing literacy policies in a governmental position or supporting governments. The report mainly focuses on the structure and alignment of literacy instruction. An evaluation of specific curricular content or the quality of pedagogical resources is beyond the scope of the paper. As previously mentioned, other World Bank reports provide more guidance on the content and high-quality teaching practices. The current report is deliberately descriptive, as it is primarily focused on the structure of literacy instruction, assessing the presence of key elements mentioned in the literature on the science of reading and how different resources are connected in the literacy practices analyzed. It does not quantify how well a certain system is working or make any assessments on how positive or negative a certain practice is. An assessment of the relationship between specific content and structural effectiveness can be better addressed by another type of analysis.
Angola Country Climate and Development Report

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank Group

Climate change is already affecting people’s lives and livelihoods in Angola, as well as the Angolan economy. The country is experiencing increasingly severe and frequent climate hazards, including the South’s worst prolonged droughts in decades. Climate change impacts also come with a heavy price tag: climate-related disasters (floods, storms, droughts) cost Angola nearly US1.2 billion dollars between 2005 and 2017, and on average droughts alone affect about a million Angolans every year. Impacts of climate variability on Angola’s water resources are expected to be particularly severe and will affect food and energy production, as well as hydropower, on which Angola relies for most of its electricity. The future does not look much brighter: climate models predict a rise in temperatures, with most of Angola becoming 1–1.5 degree Celsius warmer in 2020-2040 relative to the 1981–2010 period, with a 1.4-degree Celsius increase in the annual average temperature already recorded. The imperative to adapt and transition to a proactive model for climate risk management is urgent. Against this backdrop, and the equally urgent priority to diversify away from a highly oil-based economy, the Angola Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) provides options for the country to adapt to a fast-warming and decarbonizing world and adopt measures for more diversified and climate-resilient development that will underpin sustainable and inclusive growth. Angola has significant renewable capital, including agricultural land, forests, water resources, and, above all, its people, who can facilitate this process. But climate change also threatens these renewable assets, and necessary investments in climate resilience will be critical to realize their potential. This report identifies five pathways to achieve a vision of a future Angolan economy that is both diversified and climate-resilient, with opportunities for all. Tailored to the national context, these approaches were identified in dialogue with the Government of Angola and build on national development priorities. Angola is rich in natural capital, not only oil, gas, and diamonds, but also abundant water resources, renewable energy potential, and fertile arable land. Therefore, to shift away from an economy driven by oil and gas extraction and toward a sustainable and diversified economy based on renewable natural capital, this CCDR recommends investing in and building the resilience of key sectors, notably 1) water resources, 2) agriculture and fisheries, and 3) renewable energy. Delivering the vision of a climate-resilient and diversified economy also entails 4) enabling green and resilient cities with economic opportunities for all Angolans; and leveraging Angola’s young population by 5) boosting human capital, through expanded, climate-resilient access to basic services and by fostering a culture of climate preparedness.
The State of the Global Education Crisis: A Path to Recovery

(UNESCO, Paris, UNICEF, New York, and World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-10) UNESCO ; UNICEF ; World Bank

Even before Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hit, the world was already experiencing a learning crisis. 258 million primary- and secondary-school age children and youth were out of school. Many children who were in school were learning very little: 53 percent of all ten-year-old children in low- and middle-income countries were experiencing learning poverty, meaning that they were unable to read and understand a simple age-appropriate text at age 10. This report spotlights how COVID-19 has deepened the education crisis and charts a course for creating more resilient education systems for the future. Section one gives introduction. Section two documents COVID-19’s impacts on learning levels by presenting updated simulations and bringing together the latest documented evidence on learning loss from over 28 countries. Section three explores how the crisis has widened inequality and had greater impacts on already disadvantaged children and youth. Section four reviews evidence on learning recovery from past crises and highlights current policy responses that appear most likely to have succeeded in stemming learning losses, while recognizing that the evidence is still in a nascent stage. The final section discusses how to build on the investments made and the lessons learned during the pandemic to accelerate learning recovery and emerge from the crisis with increased education quality, resilience, and equity in the longer term.