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Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank GroupClimate change is already affecting people’s lives and livelihoods in Angola, as well as the Angolan economy. The country is experiencing increasingly severe and frequent climate hazards, including the South’s worst prolonged droughts in decades. Climate change impacts also come with a heavy price tag: climate-related disasters (floods, storms, droughts) cost Angola nearly US1.2 billion dollars between 2005 and 2017, and on average droughts alone affect about a million Angolans every year. Impacts of climate variability on Angola’s water resources are expected to be particularly severe and will affect food and energy production, as well as hydropower, on which Angola relies for most of its electricity. The future does not look much brighter: climate models predict a rise in temperatures, with most of Angola becoming 1–1.5 degree Celsius warmer in 2020-2040 relative to the 1981–2010 period, with a 1.4-degree Celsius increase in the annual average temperature already recorded. The imperative to adapt and transition to a proactive model for climate risk management is urgent. Against this backdrop, and the equally urgent priority to diversify away from a highly oil-based economy, the Angola Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) provides options for the country to adapt to a fast-warming and decarbonizing world and adopt measures for more diversified and climate-resilient development that will underpin sustainable and inclusive growth. Angola has significant renewable capital, including agricultural land, forests, water resources, and, above all, its people, who can facilitate this process. But climate change also threatens these renewable assets, and necessary investments in climate resilience will be critical to realize their potential. This report identifies five pathways to achieve a vision of a future Angolan economy that is both diversified and climate-resilient, with opportunities for all. Tailored to the national context, these approaches were identified in dialogue with the Government of Angola and build on national development priorities. Angola is rich in natural capital, not only oil, gas, and diamonds, but also abundant water resources, renewable energy potential, and fertile arable land. Therefore, to shift away from an economy driven by oil and gas extraction and toward a sustainable and diversified economy based on renewable natural capital, this CCDR recommends investing in and building the resilience of key sectors, notably 1) water resources, 2) agriculture and fisheries, and 3) renewable energy. Delivering the vision of a climate-resilient and diversified economy also entails 4) enabling green and resilient cities with economic opportunities for all Angolans; and leveraging Angola’s young population by 5) boosting human capital, through expanded, climate-resilient access to basic services and by fostering a culture of climate preparedness.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-02) World BankThe global pandemic has taken a heavy toll on Mozambique’s economy. In 2020, the country experienced its first economic contraction in nearly three decades. COVID-19 (coronavirus) hit the economy as it was attempting to recover from the slowdown triggered by the hidden debt crisis and the tropical cyclones in 2019. Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 1.3 percent in 2020, compared to a pre-Covid estimate of 4.3 percent, as external demand declined, domestic lockdown measures disrupted supply chains and depressed domestic demand, and liquified natural gas (LNG) investments were delayed. COVID-19 has caused a sudden income loss for enterprises and households, worsening living conditions, especially for the urban poor largely engaged in the informal sector. According to the National Institute of Statistics, as of June 2020, about 120,000 jobs were lost and 63,000 employment contracts suspended, with women being the most affected. Around 3 percent of the firms affected were forced to cease their activity. Services activities are the hardest hit. The tourism and hospitality industries have particularly suffered a steep decline in revenues. COVID-19 has jeopardized years of hard-won development gains, with about one million people estimated to have slipped into poverty in 2020 (as measured by the international poverty line of 1.90 US Dollars per day). While there is great uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, the economy is expected to gradually recover from 2021 as aggregate demand rebounds and LNG investments and extractive production gain momentum. Despite the expected recovery, the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines will be at the core of a resilient recovery. This Economic Update explores the implications of COVID-19 for the economy, businesses and households. It makes recommendations for moving forward—in the short-term relief phase, as well as over the medium and longer term in order to 'build back better'.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-08-16) Lachler, Ulrich ; Walker, IanThis report focuses on the challenge of Mozambique's jobs transition: how to accelerate the shift into higher value-added activities and better livelihoods. As Mozambique enters the next phase of the demographic transition, the working-age population (WAP) is growing rapidly. Education levels are also steadily improving. However, good jobs are not expanding fast enough to absorb the growing, better educated labor force. The risk is that many young people will end up doing the same jobs as their parents—and in similar levels of poverty. In this context, the challenge is to help the labor force (particularly young people entering the labor market) increase their earnings by creating opportunities for more productive work. Regardless of whether they are engaged in self-employment or in wage jobs, it is necessary to link them to sources of capital, technology and markets, and to give them access to scale and agglomeration economies. Otherwise, the demographic dividend will be squandered.