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PublicationThe World Bank Annual Report 2019: Ending Poverty, Investing in Opportunity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-02) World BankThe Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submits the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors. PublicationDoing Business in Mozambique 2019: Comparing Business Regulation for Domestic Firms in 10 Provinces with 189 Other Economies(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-05) World Bank GroupDoing Business in Mozambique 2019—the first subnational Doing Business study for Mozambique—assesses the regulatory environment for small and medium-size enterprises in the country. It measures ten provinces in the areas of starting a business, registering property and enforcing contracts: Cabo Delgado, Gaza, Inhambane, Manica, Maputo City, Niassa, Nampula, Sofala, Tete and Zambezia. It also measures trading across borders in three major seaports, Beira port, Maputo port and Nacala port, as well as one land border crossing, Ressano Garcia. PublicationEffects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Dreams Meet Reality(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-04) Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Puig, Jorge; Camarena, José Andrée; Galeano, Luciana; Morano, Luis; Venturi, Lucila; Vuletin, GuillermoAfter mediocre growth in 2018 of 0.7 percent. LAC is expected to perform only marginally better in 2019 (growth of 0.9 percent) followed by a much more solid growth of 2.1 percent in 2020. LAC will face both internal and external challenges during 2019. On the domestic front. the recession in Argentina; a slower than expected recovery in Brazil from the 2014-2015 recession, anemic growth in Mexico. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. present the biggest challenges. On the external front. the sharp drop in net capital inflows to the region since early 2018 and the monetary policy normalization in the United States stand among the greatest perils. Furthermore, the recent increase in poverty in Brazil because of the recession points to the large effects that the business cycle may have on poverty. The core of this report argues that social indicators that are very sensitive to the business cycle may yield a highly misleading picture of permanent social gains in the region. PublicationWomen, Business and the Law 2019: A Decade of Reform(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-02-27) World Bank GroupThe World Bank Group’s Women, Business and the Law examines laws and regulations affecting women’s prospects as entrepreneurs and employees across 187 economies. Its goal is to inform policy discussions on how to remove legal restrictions on women and promote research on how to improve women’s economic inclusion. Women, Business and the Law 2019: A Decade of Reform introduces a new index measuring legal rights for women throughout their working lives in 187 economies. The index is composed of 35 data points grouped into eight indicators. The data covers a 10-year period not only to understand the current situation but to see how laws affecting women’s equality of opportunity have evolved over time. The index assesses economic rights at milestones spanning the arc of a woman’s working life: the ability to move freely; starting a job; getting paid; legal capacity within marriage; having children; running a business; managing assets; and getting a pension. PublicationWorld Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019) World BankWork is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence. PublicationFrom Known Unknowns to Black Swans: How to Manage Risk in Latin America and the Caribbean(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10-05) Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Medina, Juan Pablo; Friedheim, Diego; Morano, Luis; Venturi, Lucila; Vuletin, GuillermoAfter a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region’s recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April, the growth slowdown in Brazil, and the continuing economic, social, and humanitarian collapse in Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk, develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice. The overall message of the report is that there are different types of risk: (i) those that follow standard probabilistic distributions that can be easily insured by the market; and (ii) those that exhibit fat-tails (i.e., non-negligible probabilities of extreme events) that are much harder to ensure by the market (like earthquakes). Finally, there are “black swans” that, by definition, are unpredictable events that cannot be insured and force countries to rely exclusively on ex-post aid and/or broad preventive measures. In other words, the fatter are the tails of a distribution, the less market insurance is available, and the more countries will have to rely on ex-post aid. Yet progress in managing risk continues to be made (the Catastrophe Bond for earthquakes in the Pacific Alliance, recently sponsored by the World Bank, being an outstanding example). This would have been unthinkable some time ago. New knowledge and insurance schemes, all supported by institutions such as the World Bank, will undoubtedly make LAC a safer region to live and prosper. PublicationThe World Bank Annual Report 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-09-28) World BankThe Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submits the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors. PublicationAfro-descendants in Latin America: Toward a Framework of Inclusion(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-08-28) Freire, German; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Schwartz Orellana, Steven; Soler Lopez, Jorge; Carbonari, FlaviaAbout one in four Latin Americans self-identify as Afro-descendants today. They comprise a highly heterogeneous population and are unevenly distributed across the region, but share a common history of displacement and exclusion. Despite significant gains over the past decade, Afro-descendants still are overrepresented among the poor and are underrepresented in decision-making positions, both in the private and the public sector. The extent to which Latin America will be able to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity will therefore depend, to a very large degree, on the social inclusion of Afro-descendants. The objective of this study is to deepen the region's empirical understanding of the drivers behind the persistent exclusion of the afro-descendants, as a first step to design appropriate solutions. The report proposes a framework to organize and think of the myriad options available to address their situations, based on the experience accumulated by the region and the data available. PublicationMozambique Jobs Diagnostic: Volume 1. Analytics(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-08-16) Lachler, Ulrich; Walker, IanThis report focuses on the challenge of Mozambique's jobs transition: how to accelerate the shift into higher value-added activities and better livelihoods. As Mozambique enters the next phase of the demographic transition, the working-age population (WAP) is growing rapidly. Education levels are also steadily improving. However, good jobs are not expanding fast enough to absorb the growing, better educated labor force. The risk is that many young people will end up doing the same jobs as their parents—and in similar levels of poverty. In this context, the challenge is to help the labor force (particularly young people entering the labor market) increase their earnings by creating opportunities for more productive work. Regardless of whether they are engaged in self-employment or in wage jobs, it is necessary to link them to sources of capital, technology and markets, and to give them access to scale and agglomeration economies. Otherwise, the demographic dividend will be squandered. PublicationJobs and Growth: Brazil's Productivity Agenda(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-06-22) Dutz, Mark A.Brazil approaches its 2018 election with an economy that is gradually recovering from the deepest recession in its recent economic history. However, for many Brazilians, the recovery has not yet translated into new and better jobs, or rising incomes. This book explores the drivers of future employment and income growth. Its key finding: Brazil needs to dramatically improve its performance across all industries in terms of productivity if the country is to provide better jobs for its citizens and generate lasting gains in incomes growth for all. This is particularly important as Brazil is aging rapidly and the boost the country has enjoyed thanks to its young and growing labor force in the past decades will disappear in just a few years’ time. The book recommends a change in the relationship between the state and business, from rewarding privileged incumbents to fostering competition and innovation—together with supporting workers and firms to adjust to the demands of the market. The book is addressed to all scholars and students of Brazil’s economy, especially those interested in why the country’s economic performance has not kept up with earlier achievements since the reintroduction of democracy in the mid-1980s. Its conclusions are urgent and pertinent but also optimistic. With the right policy mix, Brazil could enter the third century of its independence in 2022 well on track to join the ranks of high income countries.