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The Brazil of the Future: Towards Productivity, Inclusion, and Sustainability

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-13) World Bank Group

In 2022, Brazil celebrated its 200th anniversary. What will Brazil celebrate at its 220th anniversary, in 2042? Following the recent elections there is a window of opportunity for reforms that will shape Brazil’s development over the next decades. “The Brazil of the Future: Towards Productivity, Inclusion, and Sustainability” takes a long-term perspective on Brazil’s development, exploring how prudent actions today can generate opportunities for a more prosperous, inclusive, and sustainable society over the next 20 years. The report aims to stimulate public debate about a virtuous cycle for 2042, illustrated by four alternative future scenarios. With the right reforms Brazil can become an economic powerhouse that offers opportunities for all. A more inclusive social contract can facilitate critical reforms.
Adaptation of the Calculator of Social and Environmental Impacts from Small-Scale Gold Mining in the Amazon: Application in Frontier Regions between Brazil, Colombia and Peru

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-09) World Bank

Over the past decade, illegal gold extraction has increased significantly in the Amazon region, partly due to the high international prices of this mineral, the less stringent attitude of some countries in relation to the environment and the pursuit of immediate economic opportunities. Furthermore, this illicit activity is closely intertwined with other illegal practices, such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, and the trafficking of endangered species. This has repercussions not just for the region's ecological wealth, but also for the physical well-being of those safeguarding their lands and the health of communities living in proximity to the extraction zones due to the contamination of their rivers and, consequently, their primary sources of food, such as fish. Despite the international effort to recognize the socio-environmental repercussions of this activity, there are still gaps on this issue, mainly due to the economic losses that this activity represents.
Distributional Impacts of Brazil’s Tax Reform: scenarios regarding Cesta Básica exemption

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-31) Vale, Ricardo ; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel ; Fleury, Eduardo ; Trzcinski, Kajetan

A consumption tax reform in Brazil has been recently approved by the House of Representatives, providing a full tax exemption for the yet undefined ‘National Basic Basket’ of goods (cesta basica nacional), alongside a cashback scheme that is yet to be determined. This note simulates the distributional impacts of different fiscally neutral scenarios of reduced rates and exemptions. The authors show that the exemption of taxes for food and personal care goods (such as those suggested by Law 10,925) would benefit the most vulnerable. Nonetheless, overall expenditures on certain items that are being considered for inclusion in the cesta are relatively concentrated on households in the top decile of the income distribution. Thus, a blanket exemption on Cesta Basica items may benefit the richest more in absolute terms. If the list of items in the exempted Cesta Basica is shortened and the equivalent resources of the potential forgone revenues are returned into a targeted cashback scheme, a far less regressive indirect tax system could be achieved.
Brazil Systematic Country Diagnostic: Update

(Washington, D.C., 2023-10-11) World Bank

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) update argues that development challenges identified in SCD1 remain relevant. Moreover, there is a renewed urgency to build the capacity of individuals to generate income and a reinforced need for timely action in a transition to a greener economy. The update builds on the evidence collected in a long series of recently published analytical reports to review the challenges identified in SCD1 and inform the definition of the update’s challenges. The first constraint is complemented by the definition of another challenge so that not only the need to have productive jobs is highlighted, but also the poverty‐reduction prerequisite of building the income‐generating capacity of all individuals (through human, natural, and financial capital) is explicitly stated. The third constraint is also expanded to underscore Brazil’s need to address increased exposure to climate change risks in a timely manner. The update identified four development challenges that must be overcome, which are linked to three desired high‐level outcomes (HLOs). These outcomes, reflecting transformative changes that are critical to achieving the twin goals, are defined as long‐term sustained improvements in the well‐being of the poorest and most vulnerable. The HLOs are: (i) increased access to high quality job opportunities; (ii) improved households’ accumulation and use of productive assets; and (iii) reduced vulnerability to climate shocks.
The Value of Data: An Estimate of the Cost of (Not) Updating Brazil’s Consumer Price Index

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-01) Vale, Ricardo ; Conceicao, Otavio ; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel

Consumer price indices are central to monitoring, guiding, and defining a country's economic development path. By capturing how prices change over time, consumer price indices provide a measure of the evolution of the cost of living for households. The impact of price indices on the economy is very broad, affecting everything from the adjustment of pensions to the monetary policy of the Central Bank, from cash transfer programs to private sector contracts. The measurement of inflation has, therefore, real consequences for the country's evolution. In this note, authors study the Brazilian case and focus on the potential fiscal implications of the unavailability of a household budget survey in a timely manner. The note presents two hypothetical exercises that vary the timing at which the national statistical office incorporates updated information from a household budget survey into the CPI. Varying the timing of adoption of the expenditure information allows to create a counterfactual price index that can be compared to the true CPI at different points in time. Finally, using the actual and counterfactual CPI we answer the following question: what would have been the government expenditures should the CPI update have been delayed The note focuses on expenditures on pensions (aposentadorias) due to data availability. Recognizing that there are many other government policies that depend on inflation estimates, the estimates presented can be interpreted as a lower bound of the effect of interest.
Opportunities for All: Brazil Policy Notes 2022

(Washington, DC, 2022-12) World Bank

This package of Public Policy Notes is directed to Brazilian policy makers and society to present the World Bank Group’s overview of key challenges facing the country at this juncture, and possible ways forward to address them. We present an agenda prioritized around four issues of core relevance to Brazil’s recovery and its future resilience. First is the goal of financing development sustainably given the immediate challenge of situating the country’s enormous growth, inclusion and climate action needs within a credible macroeconomic framework and efficient and effective fiscal policies. The second theme addressed in this note is building opportunities through productivity-led growth. With the growing reliance of Brazilians on social assistance policies, it is critical to keep sight of growth and jobs as the most important vehicles for the dignity and upward mobility of the poor. Third is increasing the capabilities and economic inclusion of the poor so that they are better able to capture the opportunities that come with growth. Thefourth theme we address in this note is meeting Brazil’s potential as a as a leader in green and climate friendly development. This document is accompanied by a package of six policy presentations and an underlying set of more detailed policy reports that can be accesses here: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/brazil.
All Drops in the Bucket for Universalization: Public Expenditure Review of Water and Sanitation in Brazil

(Washington, DC, 2022-03) World Bank

Brazil has a pressing need for better water supply and sanitation services (WSS), but in recent years public investment in the sector has been declining both in real terms and as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) and is often spent behind schedule and inefficiently. WSS budgets are allocated to states with higher populations, leaving behind rural areas. Federal and state resources must be aligned to incentive inclusion through WSS investments and improvements in service providers’ operational efficiency.
The Science of Reading in Practice: An Analysis of Instructional Materials for Literacy in Selected States and Municipalities in Brazil

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

The goal of this study is to assess if literacy practices in the highest-performing education systems in Brazil are aligned with the Science of Reading evidence. By doing so, the study aims to provide practical examples of evidence-based literacy instruction that can be helpful for low and middle-income countries. This report is guided by the following questions: What is the degree of structure and detail of skills in the curricula? What skills should be taught and in which order? How do these skills compare with the World Bank’s Early Grade Reading Rainbow model 20? What is the level of guidance offered to teachers on what to teach and how does this guidance appear in the teaching material? How aligned are the curriculum, textbooks, teacher materials, and monitoring tools? The intended audience for this report includes education actors responsible for designing and implementing literacy policies in a governmental position or supporting governments. The report mainly focuses on the structure and alignment of literacy instruction. An evaluation of specific curricular content or the quality of pedagogical resources is beyond the scope of the paper. As previously mentioned, other World Bank reports provide more guidance on the content and high-quality teaching practices. The current report is deliberately descriptive, as it is primarily focused on the structure of literacy instruction, assessing the presence of key elements mentioned in the literature on the science of reading and how different resources are connected in the literacy practices analyzed. It does not quantify how well a certain system is working or make any assessments on how positive or negative a certain practice is. An assessment of the relationship between specific content and structural effectiveness can be better addressed by another type of analysis.
Nature-Related Financial Risks in Brazil

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08) Calice, Pietro ; Diaz Kalan, Federico ; Miguel, Faruk

Biodiversity loss and associated economic costs are increasingly recognized as a source of financial risks. This paper explores how and to what extent Brazilian banks are exposed to the loss of biodiversity through their lending to non-financial corporates. The results suggest that such exposures are material. Forty-six percent of Brazilian banks’ non-financial corporate loan portfolio is concentrated in sectors highly or very highly dependent on one or more ecosystem services. Output losses associated with the collapse in ecosystem services could translate into a cumulative long-term increase in corporate nonperforming loans of 9 percentage points. Moreover, 15 percent of Brazilian banks’ corporate loan portfolio is to firms potentially operating in protected areas, which could increase to 25 percent should conservation gaps close, and 38 percent should all priority areas become protected. Finally, 7 percent of corporate loans are to firms for which environmental controversies have been recorded. While preliminary, the results have important policy implications for both Brazilian banks and Banco Central do Brasil.
Enrollment and Eligibility Process of Brazil’s Auxílio Emergencial: Data Processing and Use of Administrative Registries

(Washington, DC, 2021-01) World Bank

In order to support the systematization of institutional learning processes provided by the implementation of Auxílio Emergencial in Brazil and disseminate the best practices derived from the Brazilian experience to social policy operators and administrators in other developing countries, the World Bank headed up a study on the social protection response to the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil. Financed by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), which is linked to the Foreign Secretary of the Government of the United Kingdom, this study was conducted at the request and with the cooperation of the Brazilian Government. This project encompasses the preparation of a main Report covering the stages of the Auxílio Emergencial, together with four Technical Notes exploring specific implementation aspects in greater depth. One of them addresses registration and eligibility verification strategies, which form the subject of this text.