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Distributional Impacts of Brazil’s Tax Reform: scenarios regarding Cesta Básica exemption

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-31) Vale, Ricardo ; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel ; Fleury, Eduardo ; Trzcinski, Kajetan

A consumption tax reform in Brazil has been recently approved by the House of Representatives, providing a full tax exemption for the yet undefined ‘National Basic Basket’ of goods (cesta basica nacional), alongside a cashback scheme that is yet to be determined. This note simulates the distributional impacts of different fiscally neutral scenarios of reduced rates and exemptions. The authors show that the exemption of taxes for food and personal care goods (such as those suggested by Law 10,925) would benefit the most vulnerable. Nonetheless, overall expenditures on certain items that are being considered for inclusion in the cesta are relatively concentrated on households in the top decile of the income distribution. Thus, a blanket exemption on Cesta Basica items may benefit the richest more in absolute terms. If the list of items in the exempted Cesta Basica is shortened and the equivalent resources of the potential forgone revenues are returned into a targeted cashback scheme, a far less regressive indirect tax system could be achieved.
Brazil Systematic Country Diagnostic: Update

(Washington, D.C., 2023-10-11) World Bank

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) update argues that development challenges identified in SCD1 remain relevant. Moreover, there is a renewed urgency to build the capacity of individuals to generate income and a reinforced need for timely action in a transition to a greener economy. The update builds on the evidence collected in a long series of recently published analytical reports to review the challenges identified in SCD1 and inform the definition of the update’s challenges. The first constraint is complemented by the definition of another challenge so that not only the need to have productive jobs is highlighted, but also the poverty‐reduction prerequisite of building the income‐generating capacity of all individuals (through human, natural, and financial capital) is explicitly stated. The third constraint is also expanded to underscore Brazil’s need to address increased exposure to climate change risks in a timely manner. The update identified four development challenges that must be overcome, which are linked to three desired high‐level outcomes (HLOs). These outcomes, reflecting transformative changes that are critical to achieving the twin goals, are defined as long‐term sustained improvements in the well‐being of the poorest and most vulnerable. The HLOs are: (i) increased access to high quality job opportunities; (ii) improved households’ accumulation and use of productive assets; and (iii) reduced vulnerability to climate shocks.
The World Bank Annual Report 2022: Helping Countries Adapt to a Changing World

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022) World Bank

The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submit the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
Mozambique - Country Economic Memorandum: Reigniting Growth for All

(Washington, DC, 2021-10) World Bank

Mozambique has experienced rapid growth for over two decades. Growth accelerated remarkably following the end of the civil war, averaging 7.9 percent over 1993-2015, among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, growth decelerated sharply following the hidden debt crisis in 2016, which led to a crisis of economic governance and a protracted economic slowdown, with growth falling to 3 percent in 2016-2019. The growth slowdown has been further exacerbated by the natural disasters in 2019, the insurgency in Northern Mozambique, escalating since 2017, and the global pandemic since 2020. Mozambique’s existing growth strategy has been limited in its capacity to generate productive jobs and support accelerated poverty reduction. However, the discovery of some of the largest natural gas (LNG) reserves in the world is expected to provide Mozambique with a transformative opportunity for sustained and inclusive growth. The Mozambique Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) assesses Mozambique’s current growth model and presents a set of recommendations to: (i) make the best use of the non-renewable natural resource revenues, which includes putting in place an adequate policy and institutional framework well ahead of the revenue windfalls from the LNG sector; and (ii) promote growth in non-extractive sectors, accompanied by spatial transformation, and improved agricultural productivity. The report consists of five chapters. Chapter one provides an overview of Mozambique’s current growth model, asking what’s driving growth and outlining why this model needs rethinking. Chapter two provides analysis of the potential impact of Mozambique’s resource boom on GDP, exports, revenue, and employment, and discusses how to make good use of the opportunities and manage the associated risks. Chapter three tells Mozambique’s growth story from a spatial perspective. It constructs a unique district-by-district sectoral GDP database to identify the main growth nodes in Mozambique and understand why there is a weak link between growth and poverty reduction. The services sector is the subject of chapter four, exploring how to overcome bottlenecks to deliver on its potential to drive growth in Mozambique. Chapter five continues this theme, examining the challenges posed to private sector growth by weak governance and rising corruption. All five chapters make policy recommendations for the way forward.
Mozambique Economic Update, February 2021: Setting the Stage for Recovery

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-02) World Bank

The global pandemic has taken a heavy toll on Mozambique’s economy. In 2020, the country experienced its first economic contraction in nearly three decades. COVID-19 (coronavirus) hit the economy as it was attempting to recover from the slowdown triggered by the hidden debt crisis and the tropical cyclones in 2019. Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 1.3 percent in 2020, compared to a pre-Covid estimate of 4.3 percent, as external demand declined, domestic lockdown measures disrupted supply chains and depressed domestic demand, and liquified natural gas (LNG) investments were delayed. COVID-19 has caused a sudden income loss for enterprises and households, worsening living conditions, especially for the urban poor largely engaged in the informal sector. According to the National Institute of Statistics, as of June 2020, about 120,000 jobs were lost and 63,000 employment contracts suspended, with women being the most affected. Around 3 percent of the firms affected were forced to cease their activity. Services activities are the hardest hit. The tourism and hospitality industries have particularly suffered a steep decline in revenues. COVID-19 has jeopardized years of hard-won development gains, with about one million people estimated to have slipped into poverty in 2020 (as measured by the international poverty line of 1.90 US Dollars per day). While there is great uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, the economy is expected to gradually recover from 2021 as aggregate demand rebounds and LNG investments and extractive production gain momentum. Despite the expected recovery, the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines will be at the core of a resilient recovery. This Economic Update explores the implications of COVID-19 for the economy, businesses and households. It makes recommendations for moving forward—in the short-term relief phase, as well as over the medium and longer term in order to 'build back better'.
Loud and Clear: Effective Language of Instruction Policies for Learning

(Washington, DC, 2021) World Bank

Part 1 addresses why we should care about LoI (Language of Instruction) issues and the major challenges involved. Its four sections are entitled: (i) why should we care (ii) how big is the problem (iii) the role of political economy; and (iv) diverse LoI contexts. Part 2 presents existing solutions (in section 5) and proposes a detailed way forward for the WB Education Global Practice (section 6). It should be noted that the paper does not claim to possess or propose a complete set of technical solutions for the myriad of difficult policy issues involved. By enhancing engagement and devoting adequate resources to the problem, existing solutions will be deployed, and new solutions devised. Increased partnership and knowledge sharing will be part of this, as will be the testing of innovative approaches. The new approach will involve learning at the individual and institutional level, with an intensity of engagement commensurate with the urgency of the issue.
Afro-descendants in Latin America: Toward a Framework of Inclusion

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-08-28) Freire, German ; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina ; Schwartz Orellana, Steven ; Soler Lopez, Jorge ; Carbonari, Flavia

About one in four Latin Americans self-identify as Afro-descendants today. They comprise a highly heterogeneous population and are unevenly distributed across the region, but share a common history of displacement and exclusion. Despite significant gains over the past decade, Afro-descendants still are overrepresented among the poor and are underrepresented in decision-making positions, both in the private and the public sector. The extent to which Latin America will be able to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity will therefore depend, to a very large degree, on the social inclusion of Afro-descendants. The objective of this study is to deepen the region's empirical understanding of the drivers behind the persistent exclusion of the afro-descendants, as a first step to design appropriate solutions. The report proposes a framework to organize and think of the myriad options available to address their situations, based on the experience accumulated by the region and the data available.
Republic of Cabo Verde: Adjusting the Development Model to Revive Growth and Strengthen Social Inclusion

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018) World Bank Group

Cabo Verde’s economic achievements over the last thirty years have been spectacular and are unprecedented on the African continent. These achievements are remarkable given the unique challenges the country faces due to its small size, lack of scale for production of goods and delivery of economic and social services, remoteness, geographical dispersion, environmental fragility, and high exposure to shocks. This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) presents an assessment of the main opportunities and constraints for achieving the World Bank’s twin goals in Cabo Verde. It assesses the pathways for reducing extreme poverty and raising the welfare of the poorest forty percent of the population in a sustainable manner, and identifies the main constraints for operationalizing these. The SCD is based on a review of existing documents, analysis of available data, and in-country discussions and expert interviews that took place during 2016 and 2017. The SCD focuses on the country’s development potential and challenges to meeting the objectives of poverty reduction and shared posterity. It lays the ground for the program of collaboration between Cabo Verde and the World Bank Group, namely the 2018–2021 country partnership framework.
Country Partnership Framework for the Federative Republic of Brazil for the Period FY18-FY23

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05-16) World Bank ; International Finance Corporation ; Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency

The country partnership framework (CPF) for Brazil covers the six-year period from FY18 to FY23.1 The CPF is aligned with the objectives of the country’s development strategy as outlined in the Brazil growth strategy presented by the authorities and is rooted in the findings and recommendations of the World Bank Group (WBG) systematic country diagnostic (SCD) for Brazil, which contains an analysis of key constraints for inclusive and sustainable growth. The CPF supports the country in making further progress on the WBG twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity through a program that focuses on creating the conditions for faster job growth. The CPF reflects the priorities of the Brazilian authorities and the resources and capacity of the WBG to deliver against these priorities. The CPF is built around three focus areas: (i) fiscal consolidation and government effectiveness; (ii) private sector investment and productivity; and (iii) equitable and sustainable development. The CPF continues the strong focus on improved service delivery that was at the center of the previous strategy, including through the implementation of the large existing portfolio, but with a growing emphasis on new management models that promise to increase the efficiency and efficacy of the public sector in addition to safeguarding access for the poor.