World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update

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The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update is the World Bank's comprehensive, twice-yearly review of the region's economies prepared by the East Asia and Pacific regional unit of the World Bank.

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East Asia and Pacific Update, April 2009 : Battling the Forces of Global Recession

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-04) World Bank

Developing East Asia is battling the forces of global recession. The impact of the crisis in the advanced countries was transmitted to the economies of the region with unusual speed. In the region, the initial global financial turbulence was marked by sudden reversals of capital flows in the middle-income economies, rapidly declining equity market prices, a sharp increase in the price of external private capital, a shortage of dollar liquidity, and in some cases, a depreciating currency. Now with aggregate global demand falling precipitously, region-wide declines in exports and industrial production are triggering widespread factory closures, rising unemployment, and lower real wages, with disproportionate effects on the poor and near-poor. Authorities in many countries are implementing social programs and cash transfers to assist those most in need. Where possible, policymakers have responded quickly with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, including fiscal stimulus packages, although in most cases these measures will only mitigate, not overcome, the contraction forces operating on their economies.
East Asia and Pacific Update, December 2008: East Asia - Navigating the Perfect Storm

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-12) World Bank

As the global economy finds itself in the worst financial crisis since the great depression, the East Asia and Pacific region has not been spared the full fury of the economic storm. The surge and subsequent drop in food and fuel prices was followed by the intensification in the financial crisis that began in mid- 2007 in the U.S., deepened through the first half of 2008, and took a sharp turn for the worse after September 15. Even as East Asian policymakers were battling the previous crisis in late 2007 and early 2008 - the rise in inflation following the steep increases in food and fuel prices they were confronted by sudden falls in equity prices and exchange rates, sharp increases in short-term interest rates, and an abrupt deceleration in export growth. The epicenter of the storm was in the developed countries, but its reach spread quickly across the globe. The failure of important financial institutions in the major financial systems froze interbank and credit markets around the world and revised the price of risk upward, triggering a global liquidity shortage. The ensuing search for liquidity worldwide prompted, among other things, the sale of equity and debt securities and the withdrawal of capital from emerging markets, destabilizing banking systems far from the center of the crisis. Boosts to liquidity and injections of capital in financial institutions by developed country authorities may avert a systemic meltdown of financial markets, but heightened risk aversion and an ongoing deleveraging across the world is causing capital to retreat from developing countries and the cost of financing to rise. The loss of trust, breakdown in financial markets, and curtailment of bank loans have hit investment, production, and trade, causing global growth to slow rapidly. Japan and Europe are already in recession, and the US is expected to follow soon. All three are expected to contract further in 2009, dampening import demand and resulting in the first decline in world trade volumes in a quarter century.
East Asia and Pacific Update, April 2008: East Asia - Testing Times Ahead

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-04) World Bank

Last year Developing East Asia recorded its highest growth rate in over a decade (10.2 percent), capping a decade of improvements following its home-grown financial crisis in 1998. Yet this is hardly a time for celebration, but rather one for concern. The global economy is once again facing a testing time, with soaring fuel and food prices, on the one hand, and, on the other, an unfolding sub-prime crisis emanating in the United States and spreading to other countries and asset classes, bringing in its wake a plunging dollar and a slowdown in global trade and growth. Despite falling growth in exports to the US, rising volatility in global financial markets, high and volatile international commodity prices, and an increasingly clouded outlook for the world economy, economic activity in most East Asian economies continued at strong rates through the end of 2007 and into early 2008. Fortunately, the countries of East Asia are generally better prepared than ever to deal with the vicissitudes of the global economy in this more uncertain time. Reflecting lessons learned from the East Asian financial crisis of a decade ago, today most economies in the region have strong external payments positions and large international reserves, prudent fiscal and monetary policies, better regulated banking systems, and profitable and competitive corporations. East Asia's trade and financial relations with the rest of the world have become steadily more diverse. The region is becoming more of a growth pole in the world economy, proving to be a force for stability at a time when the industrial economies are slowing.
East Asia and Pacific Update, November 2007: Will Resilience Overcome Risk?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-11) World Bank

Growth in Emerging East Asia is expected to exceed 8 percent in 2007 for a second year in succession and to moderate only slightly in 2008. Our projections for regional growth in 2007 and 2008 have been substantially increased compared to six months ago, mainly due to the unexpected and large domestic demand-led acceleration of growth in China. Growth also picked up in most of the other larger economies of the region, again a result of more buoyant investment and consumption spending. Concerns about the impact of the US sub-prime crisis and the renewed surge in oil prices have clearly increased downside risks. Nevertheless we expect that the stronger growth momentum in the region will carry through 2008. There are as yet few signs of a significant pick-up in underlying core inflation pressures or of other domestic constraints or imbalances that would require a marked slowing of growth.
East Asia and Pacific Update, April 2007: Ten Years After the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-04) World Bank

Growth in Emerging East Asia accelerated to reach 8.1 percent in 2006. This was the strongest pace of economic expansion in the last ten years and a fitting commemoration of the decade that has passed since the start of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The region's accomplishments in grappling with and overcoming the crisis and in returning to solid growth are varied and impressive -- a doubling in the dollar value of regional output from pre-crisis levels, the emergence of China into the front rank of global economic powers, a halving in poverty rates, accumulation of over 2 trillion dollars in foreign reserves. But even as the region celebrates recovery, new challenges are arising, which could slow or even derail growth if not properly handled. The report looks at these issues in a section on Ten years after the crisis. Another challenge of staggering proportions that lies ahead is East Asian urbanization: The region's population will rise by around 17 percent between 2000 and 2025 but its urban population will jump by 65 percent or 500 million. The Special Focus in this report on Sustainable Development in East Asia's Urban Fringe looks at the issues.
East Asia Update, November 2006: Managing Through a Global Downturn

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-11) World Bank

Growth in Emerging East Asia is expected to reach close to 8 percent in 2006, the second strongest pace in the five year long economic expansion underway in the region since 2001. Emerging East Asia comprises Developing East Asia (China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and some smaller economies) and four Newly Industrialized Economies or NIEs (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, China). The rest of this summary provides further information on the main cross-country trends and policy issues discussed in this report. Developments at the country level are discussed in the Country Sections at the back of the report, while fuller Country Briefs are available at the website associated with this report. The Special Focus in this report is on Investing in Young People in East Asia and the Pacific, a study of the lessons for East Asia from the World Bank's recent World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Generation.
East Asia Update, March 2006: Solid Growth, New Challenges

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-03) World Bank

The report stipulates growth in Emerging East Asian countries eased modestly from 7.5 percent in 2004 to 6.8 percent in 2005. The slower pace of activity was most clear in the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs), and in some of the middle income economies of South East Asia. But it was not universal. Growth accelerated in Indonesia and Vietnam, and continued at very high rates in China. In addition, while the moderation in activity in the NIEs and South East Asia occurred in the first part of 2005, activity was generally rebounding in the latter part of the year. Indeed growth for 2005 as a whole, generally turned out higher than we had expected six months ago. The prospects for 2006 also look reasonably firm, with aggregate regional growth expected to exceed 6.5 percent for a third year in a row. Global high tech demand slowed in late 2004 and early 2005, causing a downturn in tech-reliant East Asian export growth, but then rebounded strongly in the second half of the year. High oil prices clearly played a large role in moderating growth in 2005. While the report assumes that oil prices have now peaked, they are still expected to average 10 percent higher in 2006 than in 2005, so that some of the adverse impact is still likely to be playing out in 2006. Nevertheless, the real surprise has been that the highest real oil prices in more than 25 years did not inflict more serious economic damage, with growth not falling below 4 percent in any of the main economies of the region.
East Asia Update, April 2005: East Asia's Dollar Influx - Signal for Change

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-04) World Bank

Economic growth in Emerging East Asia reached a cyclical peak of 7.2 percent in 2004 from which it is expected to slow only moderately to about 6 percent in 2005 and 2006. The tragic tsunami disaster, while it had a horrendous impact in terms of loss of life, is expected to have only a limited impact on overall economic growth in the two most seriously affected East Asian economies, Indonesia and Thailand. Among the developing economies in the region growth is expected to ease from over 8 percent - the highest since before the financial crisis - to around 7 percent in the coming period.
East Asia Update, November 2004: Steering a Steady Course

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2004-11) World Bank

This report discusses the number of cross-currents and risks within and without the East Asia region. One of the concerns discussed is the steep spike in world oil prices, which will reduce incomes among the majority of economies in the region that are net energy importers, as well as among the developed nations which comprise Emerging East Asias major extra-regional export markets - the United States, Japan and Europe. The report also reviews the affects of oil prices, as well as a variety of domestic factors and the fact that growth in the developed world shifted to a lower pace in the second quarter of 2004, most notably in Japan and to a lesser extent in the U.S., while monthly indicators suggested softening activity in Europe in the third quarter. Also discussed is the growth pause in the developed world and the likelihood of another cyclical downturn in the global high tech industry, a concern for East Asia which is now the leading location for manufacturing and assembly in this industry. The study notes that East Asian decision makers are also giving much attention to the outlook for China.
East Asia Update, April 2004: Strong Fundamentals to the Fore

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2004-04) World Bank

This report looks at three sets of issues underlying the present cyclical moment and the outlook for East Asia. First, the evolution of the world economy is always relevant in as open and globally integrated a region as East Asia. Japan's economy seems to have finally returned to broad-based and sustainable growth, while the U.S. economy is growing at 4-5 percent. Global high technology industries appear to have returned to a phase of multi-year expansion (no doubt with quarter to quarter fluctuations). Rising world demand has helped pull primary commodity prices sharply higher, a boon to some of the low-income, commodity exporters in the region, if not to their more industrially developed, commodity importing neighbors. The second set of issues centers on the emergence of China as the economic powerhouse of the region, its rapid integration with other Asian economies and the region wide opportunities, risks and policy challenges that are coming up as a result. Over the last decade the structure of intra-East Asian trade with China has been transformed by the emergence of intricate and sophisticated production networks between countries. For two years now the boom in the Chinese economy has contributed around half the export growth in many other East Asian economies. A third set of issues in this report are the policy efforts undertaken by countries to address domestic challenges as well as international and regional ones. While domestic and foreign direct investment is booming in economies like China and Vietnam, it has only just begun to recover in Thailand, and remains weak in several of the other economies hit by the 1997-98 financial crisis.