World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update

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The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update is the World Bank's comprehensive, twice-yearly review of the region's economies prepared by the East Asia and Pacific regional unit of the World Bank.

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  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2020: From Containment to Recovery
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-09-28) World Bank
    COVID-19 has delivered a triple shock to the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region: the pandemic itself, the economic impact of containment measures, and reverberations from the global recession. Without action on multiple fronts, the pandemic could reduce regional growth over the next decade by 1 percentage point per year, with the greatest impacts being felt by poor households, because of lower levels of access to healthcare, education, jobs, and finance. Why were many economies in the region able to contain the disease while some others still struggle? How have these shocks affected economic activity and poverty in different countries? What are the prospects for recovery and how will longer term growth be affected across the region? Is there a tension between containing the disease and providing relief today and promoting recovery and growth tomorrow? These key questions are addressed in the World Bank’s October 2020 EAP Economic Update.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2019: Weathering Growing Risks
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-09) World Bank
    Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed in the first half of 2019 given weakening global demand and heightened policy uncertainty amid ongoing trade tensions. Steady consumption growth helped to partly offset the effects of weakening exports and investment on growth. The region’s growth prospects face intensified downside risks, including further escalation of trade disputes, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, the United States and the Euro Area, along with a disorderly Brexit, and an abrupt change in global financing conditions. In some countries, rising indebtedness and other vulnerabilities, such as the constrained capacity for foreign debt rollover, could amplify the negative effects of external shocks. The regional growth moderation underscores the need to address key vulnerabilities and preserve economic dynamism among developing East Asia and Pacific economies. In the short run, countries with sufficient policy space should use available policy tools to stimulate domestic activities. Better quality spending, together with prudent debt management, is needed to safeguard fiscal sustainability. Deepening regional integration would help offset the negative impact of global protectionism. In the medium to long term, pursuing structural reforms that raise competitiveness, support trade and investment, and encourage innovation is critical to boosting productivity and growth.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2019: Managing Headwinds
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-23) World Bank
    Despite global economic volatility, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilient during 2018, and in the first quarter of 2019. The growth outlook for developing EAP is expected to soften in 2019, as China's economic expansion continues to moderate. Downside risks remain, including expected moderated global demand, continued trade tensions, the risk of a faster-thanexpected financial tightening in developed economies, the risk of weaker-than-expected growth in China, and continued financial market volatility. Also, or in combination, these risks could weigh on the· region's growth prospects in the short-to-medium term. To manage global and regional headwinds, developing EAP economies should reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-based international trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economic integration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need to continue to enhance economic security by investing in human capital and strengthen social assistance.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2017: Balancing Act
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-10-03) World Bank
    The economic outlook for the developing EAP region remains positive, and will benefit from an improved external environment as well as strong domestic demand. The growth of regional GDP excluding China is forecast to accelerate in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to decline in 2018 and 2019, although remain higher than most countries in the region. Poverty is projected to continue its long-term decline. Major downside risks include financial sector vulnerabilities, large fiscal imbalances, and the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions. The improved outlook for global growth provides a window of opportunity for developing EAP to continue to reduce key vulnerabilities and strengthen the foundations for sustained and inclusive growth in the medium term. The region could also benefit from further developing tourism sectors and deepening of regional integration, to offset the emerging global protectionism. And policies to ensure inclusive growth should involve ensuring economic mobility and security for all, going beyond the primary focus on reducing poverty.
  • Publication
    East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2017: Sustaining Resilience
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04-13) World Bank
    The region's growth outlook for 2017-19 remains broadly positive. China's growth moderation and rebalancing are expected to continue. In the region's other large developing economies, growth is projected to pick up slightly. Poverty has continued to decline in most countries and is projected to fall further. Global and regional vulnerabilities place a premium on macroeconomic prudence. Mobilizing additional revenues will create space for measures to support growth and foster inclusion. Some smaller commodity-exporting economies need to focus on lowering threats to fiscal solvency. Much of the region may need to adjust accommodative monetary policies. In China, reforms of the corporate sector, including restructuring of SOEs, and measures to bring credit growth under control are critical to reducing vulnerabilities. Elsewhere in the region, improvements in financial supervision and prudential regulation will be required. Developing EAP economies could benefit significantly from improving the quality of public spending, deepening regional integration, and reducing the agricultural sector's increasingly adverse environmental footprint.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2013 : Rebuilding Policy Buffers, Reinvigorating Growth
    (Washington, DC, 2013-10-31) World Bank
    Global growth momentum accelerated during the second and third quarters of 2013, while many downside risks lingered in the background. Strengthening of global growth momentum will help developing East Asia maintain a growth rate in excess of 7 percent, retaining its status as the global growth leader. Domestic demand, which has been the main driver of growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region in the post-global financial crisis period, is slowing. The decision by the United States (U.S.) Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay tapering of quantitative easing (QE) has restored capital flows to emerging markets, giving the authorities a second opportunity to take measures to lower risks from future volatility. As the global growth cycle undergoes change, adjustments to fiscal and monetary policy are warranted in many EAP countries. With growth running at or above potential for most countries in the region, progress at upgrading growth and reducing poverty depends crucially on structural reforms. While the balance of risks to base case regional forecast lies on the downside, several upside risks have recently emerged. The three immediate headline risks include a less orderly tapering of the U.S.'s unconventional monetary policies, prolonged fiscal deadlock in the U.S., and a sharper than expected slowdown of the Chinese economy. In this context, the report is divided into following three parts: part one is recent developments and outlook; part two is selected emerging issues; and part three is the medium-term development agenda.