Global Development Horizons
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This annual report serves as a vehicle for stimulating new thinking and research on anticipated structural changes in the global economic landscape. To retain this forward-looking orientation and serve the World Bank Group's mandate of development and poverty alleviation, this series focuses on themes of importance to the emerging development agenda and global economic governance. This corporate flagship undergoes extensive internal and external review and is one of the key outputs of the World Bank's Development Economics unit.
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Global Development Horizons : Capital for the Future - Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World
(Washington, DC, 2013-05-15)The gradual acceleration of growth in developing countries is a defining feature of the past two decades. This acceleration came with major shifts in patterns of investment, saving, and capital flows. This second volume in the Global Development Horizons series analyzes these shifts and explores how they may evolve through 2030. Average domestic saving in developing countries stood at 34 percent of their GDP in 2010, up from 24 percent in 1990, while their investment was around 33 percent of their GDP in 2012, up from 26 percent. These trends in saving and investment, along with higher growth rates in developing countries, have resulted in developing countries’ share of global savings now standing at 46 percent, nearly double the level of the 1990s. The presence of developing countries on the global stage will continue to expand over the next two decades. Analysis presented in this report projects that by 2030, China will account for 30 percent of global investment activity, far and away the largest share of any single country, while India and Brazil (at 7 percent and 3 percent, respectively) will account for shares comparable to the United States and Japan (11 percent and 5 percent, respectively). The complex interaction among aging, growth, and financial deepening can be expected to result in a world where developing countries will contribute 62 of every 100 dollars of world saving in 2030, up from 45 dollars in 2010, and where they account for between $6.2 trillion and $13 trillion (47 percent to 60 percent) of global gross capital flows, rising from $1.3 trillion (23 percent) in 2010. Trends in investment, saving, and capital flows through 2030 will affect economic conditions from the household level to the global macroeconomic level, with implications not only for national policy makers but also for international institutions and policy coordination. Policy makers preparing for this change will benefit from a better understanding of the unfolding dynamics of global capital and wealth in the future. This book is accompanied by a website, http://www.worldbank.org/CapitalForTheFuture, that includes a host of related electronic resources: data sets underlying the two main scenarios presented in the report, background papers, technical appendixes, interactive widgets that allow the interested reader to explore variations to some of the assumptions used in the projections, and related audio and video resources. -
Publication
Global Development Horizons 2011 : Multipolarity - The New Global Economy
(World Bank, 2011-06-13)The world economy is in the midst of a transformative change. One of the most visible outcomes of this transformation is the rise of a number of dynamic emerging-market countries to the helm of the global economy. It is likely that, by 2025, emerging economies, such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and the Russian Federation, will be major contributors to global growth, alongside the advanced economies. As they pursue growth opportunities abroad and encouraged by improved policies at home, corporations based in emerging markets are playing an increasingly prominent role in global business and cross border investment. The international monetary system is likely to cease being dominated by a single currency. Emerging-market countries, where three-fourths of official foreign exchange reserves are currently held and whose sovereign wealth funds and other pools of capital are increasingly important sources of international investment, will become key players in financial markets. In short, a new world order with a more diff use distribution of economic power is emerging, thus the shift toward multipolarity. The new report serves as a vehicle for stimulating new thinking and research on anticipated structural changes in the global economic landscape. To retain this forward looking orientation and to serve the World Bank Group's mandate of development and poverty alleviation, it is envisaged that future editions of Global Development Horizon (GDH) will be dedicated to themes of importance to the emerging development agenda and global economic governance, including changing global income inequality, increasing economic insecurity, global population aging, and the future shape of development finance.