Trade and Development
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The Trade and Development Series seeks to provide objective, accessible information about the new trade agenda. Titles in the series cover a wide range of topics, from regional trade agreements and customs reform to agriculture, intellectual property rights, services, and other key issues currently being discussed in World Trade Organization negotiations. Contributors to the series represent some of the world’s leading thinkers and specialists on international trade issues. Titles in this series undergo internal and external review under the management of the Trade Group's Advisory Board in the World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network.
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Effects of a Deeper Central European Free Trade Agreement
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-03-01)This paper studies the economic effects of ‘deepening’ the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA). It combines new information on the content of trade agreements with gravity model estimates of the impact of deep trade agreements, agreements that go beyond the elimination of tariffs and other border restrictions. The analysis suggests that CEFTA is a relatively shallow trade agreement as it covers mostly policy areas under the current WTO mandate. The estimated trade impacts of CEFTA on member countries are relatively modest, varying between 0.02 and 7.4 percent. CEFTA’s members would gain from simultaneously deepening their integration reciprocally and vis-a-vis the EU. In particular, a trade agreement with the EU similar to the EU-Norway agreement could increase total exports by CEFTA members between 4 and 27 percent.