Commodities Study
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Publication Rapid Fishery and Aquaculture Sector Diagnosis Using Fishery Performance Indicators in the Gaza Strip(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) World BankThis report is prepared with the objective of conducting a rapid diagnosis of the fisheries sector and establishing an overview of it in the Gaza Strip (GS). The fisheries and aquaculture sector in the GS have many challenges, including institutional structure, movement constraints of people and goods, degraded infrastructure, and deteriorating vessels. Despite various challenges, the sector has some promising characteristics. These include: (i) a relatively well-organized fishing industry, (ii) existing and emerging entrepreneurship in aquaculture, and (iii) a local knowledge base within the academic community in the GS. A rapid diagnosis and understanding of the current state of the fisheries sector is a first step towards potential future engagement. The fishery performance indicators (FPIs) were selected as the rapid sector assessment instrument for economic, community, and ecological outcomes of fisheries. The FPIs have been applied to different fisheries in different countries. In this report, the instrument was applied to overall fisheries, as opposed to specific fisheries, in the GS. As a prerequisite to applying FPI scoring, a descriptive fishery profile was developed.Publication South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Private Enterprises in the Forest Sector - A Survey of the Private Sector in Wood Production and Processing(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01-14) World BankIn all three countries of the South Caucasus region - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia forests are a key natural resource and source of wealth for the nation and the global community. Different resource endowments have created variation in wood utilization patterns across the countries. While fuelwood production remains by far the most common type of forest use in all three countries, production forestry and wood processing differ. This study aimed to generate regional knowledge on the private sector’s role in the forest sector and to enhance opportunities for public-private collaboration to improve forest-based job creation and economic development. In the medium to long-term, this knowledge is expected to inform the countries, the World Bank, and other development partners when they develop interventions and policies that help to exploit forest resources sustainably for national development. The report focuses on wood production, harvesting, and processing but not on other forest-based direct and indirect economic activities such as tourism.Publication Central Asia’s Horticulture Sector: Capitalizing on New Export Opportunities in Chinese and Russian Markets(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020) World BankIn China, changing demographics, rising incomes and shifting consumer preferences have resulted in an ever-growing demand for food that is more varied, healthier and of higher quality and this demand is set to persist well into the future. According to International Monetary Fund projections (2019), by 2024, Chinese per capita gross domestic product (GDP, in current prices) will increase to dollar 28,450, from dollar 13,130 in 2019, and the population will increase to 1.5 billion people (United Nations, 2019). The projected urbanization rate will reach 67 percent by 2030, compared to 56 percent in 2015 (Goh et al., 2014). The growing number of consumers in China, that are increasingly more affluent and educated, will continue shifting their dietary preferences to include more protein, fruits and vegetables. Central Asian countries are well placed to be more competitive in satisfying fruit import demand in the growing Chinese markets and will reap economic and social development benefits along the way. For centuries, Central Asia has occupied a position of strategic importance in trade between the East and the West. The region’s geographic location, natural resources, untapped yield potential, and the possibility of greater private sector investment through policy reform create the necessary preconditions for the Central Asian countries to increase their agricultural exports to China. As China places an important role on meeting its growing food needs on dynamic agricultural trade and investment cooperation with the Central Asian countries, this results in significant opportunities for the region to increase its presence in the Chinese fruit markets brought by improved infrastructure and higher cross-border investment. For example, according to the recent World Bank report (World Bank, 2019), Belt and Road Initiative transport projects are estimated to increase trade by up to 9.7 percent. Countries that have a comparative advantage in time-sensitive sectors, such as fresh fruits and vegetables, are expected to be the biggest winners.Publication Beyond Arrivals: Emerging Opportunities for Georgian Firms in Tourism Value Chains(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-02) World BankGeorgia’s current tourism offering is oriented toward low-spending neighboring markets and,although there is growth in high-spend global markets, the share is still very small. The majority of international visitor trips are from Georgia’s neighboring countries—Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. This strong regional footprint is partly attributable to Georgia’s reputation during Soviet times as a recreational destination. Proximity, low prices, familiarity and language have contributed to this strong position. However, of Georgia’s top 15 source markets, tourists from Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey have the lowest average total trip expenditure and make the shortest trips. Although Georgia has seen very strong growth from China and India, arrivals to Georgia from the top global tourism source markets1 in 2018 represented only 7.3 percent of arrivals to the country. Georgia’s government is targeting high-growth, high-spend source markets. In 2015, the Government of Georgia (GoG) launched “Georgia Tourism 2025”; a 10-year vision and strategic plan for increasing the value and importance of tourism for the benefit of the country’s economy and ultimately its citizens. The plan—developed with support from the World Bank Group—included infrastructure development, country promotion, service quality improvement and tourism product diversification. Building on this plan, in 2018, GoG developed a marketing, branding and promotional strategy to communicate Georgia’s brand positioning, visual and verbal identity guidelines, and promotional objectives and target high growth, high-spend source markets. As Georgia’s source markets evolve, new GVC structures necessary to serve those markets will alsoemerge. GoG has identified 26 key source markets based on accessibility, economic factors, culturalrelations, and other factors such as the size of diaspora, historical ties and language barriers. A shift towards these new markets will also correspond to changes in consumer behavioral trends and tastes. This, coupled with global industry trends will see new value chain structures emerge, emphasizing activities with differing competitive forces, and presenting differing opportunities to create and retain value. Georgian firms may need support to respond to changes in emerging tourism GVCs and compete for higher-value-added activities. The report asks and answers two questions: i) How are emerging trends changing the structure of Tourism GVCs and how can Georgian firms benefit from these changes? ii) What policy reforms, capital investment or skills development is needed to increase Georgia’s value chain competitiveness in each of these key tourism offerings?Publication Strengthening Regional Agriculture Exports from APEI+ Countries to Mauritius and Seychelles(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-20) World Bank GroupAPEI member countries and Madagascar (APEI ) identified enhanced regional agricultural trade as a key priority. The matter was referred to the World Bank for further analysis which is presented in this report. Potential for increased agricultural exports from APEI+ countries to Mauritius and Seychelles does exist but is smaller than headline numbers suggest. Approximately US$100 million in untapped potential is hampered by high regional transport cost and unlikely to materialize soon. An additional US$35 million of untapped trade potential is in products with high sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) risks, which pose a serious, though not insurmountable obstacle to regional trade. Among the remaining US$110 million in untapped potential are products such as pulses, nuts and seeds, honey, and dried chili pepper that are less affected by high transport costs and SPS risks.Publication Myanmar Rice and Pulses: Farm Production Economics and Value Chain Dynamics(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) World BankAgriculture continues to play a very important role in Myanmar’s economy. For many years, understanding the dynamics and performance of Myanmar’s agriculture has been difficult due to the absence of reliable, up-to-date data, at sectoral, sub-sectoral, or microeconomic level. During the past five years, significant changes have occurred in Myanmar’s demographics, economy, and public spending and in its integration into world and regional markets for agro-food products. While Myanmar’s agriculture has experienced some considerable diversification over the past decade, rice, and bean or pulses remain core elements of the sector. Rice remains an important crop and commodity for the economy and welfare of Myanmar. Myanmar’s paddy production has realized modest gains, yet it continues to under-perform, relative to peers and to its potential. One positive development at the production level has been a significant increase in labor productivity. One potentially disturbing trend has been a significant increase in agro-chemicals use in paddy production. Elsewhere in the rice value chain, many functions are characterized by low levels of operational efficiency and/or inadequate quality management. Myanmar is the world’s third largest producer of pulses, after India and Canada. Myanmar is also a major exporter of pulses globally and the largest in the ASEAN region. After several years of promising trade results, the pulses sub-sector experienced major problems in 2017 following India’s imposition of import restrictions on back gram, chick peas and other commodities. While the trade restrictions have exposed the vulnerability of the pulses sector due to its heavy reliance on a single market for some products, there are additional challenges faced by the sector. Elsewhere in the pulses value chain, there has been limited investment or value addition.Publication Maximizing Finance for Development in Agriculture and Food Systems in Ethiopia: An Analysis of Beef, Coffee, and Maize(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) World Bank; International Finance CorporationThe World Bank Group has developed a new diagnostic approach called Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD). This study pilots the use of the World Bank’s MFD approach to identify areas along value chains (VCs) where the private sector is involved. More important may be the identification of where the private sector is currently not involved or only involved peripherially. The results provide a range of opportunities to consider, with the purpose of crowding in more private sector investment and sustainable solutions to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and meet the highest environmental, social, and fiscal responsibility standards. Under each function, the underlying causes of market failure are assessed, helping inform a range of possible opportunities for private sector to participation. The ouputs of this report can be used for further stakeholder engagement to prioritize issues and assess solutions. The focus is on the three VCs of beef, coffee, and maize. These commodities account for over 50 percent of Agricultural GDP and over 80 percent of foreign exchange revenue for the country and possess the potential for greater development impact through enhanced private sector activity. The nature of these commodities differs in terms of commercialization. Coffee, a pure cash crop, has close to 95 percent of its product sold by the farmer. In contrast, maize is primarily a food crop and 89 percent of maize produced is consumed by farming households. Cattle, on the other hand, are sold by pastoralists when cash is needed, cattle are no longer serve a productive purpose or meeting social obligations. In highland areas, the commercialization aspect of cattle is much greater. This has implications for private sector engagement in the respective value chains. This report identifies the issues and constraints in these three selected VCs and suggests opportunities for: (a) the public sector to amend policy, regulations, and provide inducements for greater private sector activity; and (b) the private sector to take on a greater level of responsible agricultural investment aligned with global good practice.Publication Mongolia Central Economic Corridor Assessment: A Value Chain Analysis of Wool-Cashmere, Meat and Leather Industries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05) World Bank GroupMongolia has a comparative advantage in agribusiness, especially downstream industries using livestock products. Yet its share in worldwide exports of agribusiness commodities is insignificant. Enhancing the efficiency of the central economic corridor (CEC) is vital to Mongolia’s effort to improve trade competitiveness and diversify exports. The role of Mongolia’s economic corridors is best understood when seen as an integral part of the country’s supply chain. The report analyzes the performance gap of the CEC through an examination of three sectors: (a) cashmere and wool sector, (b) meat, and (c) leather. These sectors highlight the major challenges that Mongolian producers face in a world where agribusiness depends on a demanding retail sector characterized by tight delivery schedules and high-quality standards, which are more important than tariffs. The report diagnoses the challenges that these industries face, identifies opportunities for the growth of these sectors, leveraging the potential of the CEC, and shares policy recommendations on how to seize these opportunities. The analysis shows that Mongolia’s comparative advantage has been significantly diluted by weaknesses associated with its economic corridors.Publication The Union of the Comoros: Jumpstarting Agricultural Transformation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019) World Bank GroupThis report is the World Bank’s first Agriculture Sector Review (ASR) for the Union of the Comoros, the first analytic product in the Bank’s reengagement with the sector after a gap of two decades. This review is a stocktaking exercise that aims to provide the Government of Comoros with the evidence base necessary for strategic policymaking and smart investments critical to jumpstarting agricultural transformation in the country. In the short-term, the findings from this ASR are intended to launch an evidence-based, participatory, and inclusive consultation process that feeds into an updated sector strategy and investment plan that charts the path towards agricultural transformation.Publication Linking Smallholders to Markets: A Supplier Development Program for Vegetable Farmers in Lesotho(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019) Reva, AnnaAgriculture plays a significant role in Lesotho's economy. Lesotho is among the poorest countries in Southern Africa, with fifty-seven percent of the population living below the poverty line. About seventy percent of the population lives in rural areas and depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. Most farmers are involved in subsistence cultivation of cereals, where the country does not have a competitive advantage due to the agroclimatic conditions, small farm size, and lack of mechanization. This contributes to widespread poverty in rural areas, which account for eighty-seven percent of the poor. The objectives of this study are to: (1) assess the demand for vegetables from formal buyers in Lesotho; (2) examine the current production and marketing strategies of commercial vegetable farmers; and (3) suggest the design of the pilot supplier development program (SDP) to improve formal market access for smallholder farmers. The focus of this study is on Maseru, as it is the main center of demand in the country. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Part 1 describes the demand for fresh produce and sourcing strategies of buyers in Maseru. Part 2 discusses the production and marketing practices of commercial vegetable farmers. Part 3 outlines the design of the pilot SDP.