Armenian PDFs Available

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23700

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Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2024: Unleashing the Power of the Private Sector
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-11) World Bank
Economic activity in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is expected to remain resilient but slow this year as a weaker global economy, slowdown in China, and lower commodity prices weigh on the region’s growth outlook. Regional growth is likely to drop to 2.8 percent in 2024, following substantial strengthening to 3.3 percent last year because of a shift from contraction to expansion in the Russian Federation and war-hit Ukraine, and a more robust recovery in Central Asia. Regional output growth is projected to moderate further to 2.6 percent in 2025. The outlook faces multiple headwinds. A slower-than-expected recovery in key trading partners, restrictive monetary policies, and exacerbation of geopolitical developments could further dampen growth across the region. Weak productivity growth in ECA in the recent decade has resulted in a sharp slowdown in income convergence with advanced economies. Fundamental drivers of productivity growth, including progress in advancing institutional and market reforms, technology adoption, and innovation, are key for enabling private sector–led growth. Boosting business dynamism in ECA will require addressing several challenges, including upgrading the competitive environment, reducing state involvement in the economy, dramatically boosting the quality of education, and strengthening the availability of finance. While meeting these challenges will look different across countries, addressing them is an essential condition to achieve stronger economic growth and overcome the middle-income trap.
Armenia - The Second Systematic Country Diagnostic: Beyond Boundaries - Unlocking Potential for a Sustainable Tomorrow
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-22) World Bank
The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) provides an assessment of the constraints Armenia should address and the opportunities it can embrace to accelerate progress toward the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. The first-generation SCD in Armenia, published in 2017, highlighted the need for a new growth model grounded in greater productivity, and it identified four main related challenges: (1) poor external sector performance, (2) low private sector productivity, (3) insufficient labor productivity, and (4) key macroeconomic, environmental, and microeconomic vulnerabilities. This second-generation SCD looks into the future by reflecting on the five years that have transpired since 2017. It finds that the challenges identified in SCD remain valid, while it highlights new challenges related to fragility, conflict, and violence. It also finds that governance, institutional capacity, and investment in data are cross-sectoral constraints.
Armenia Public Expenditure Review: Improving Spending Efficiency
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-02) World Bank
Armenia’s fiscal performance has improved during the past two decades, supported by reforms. Revenue collection has converged with income and regional peers, overall spending levels have remained prudent, and debt levels remain sustainable. Fiscal policy has been counter-cyclical and progressive but has had a limited impact on economic growth. Spending efficiency is a key area of concern. Expenditure efficiency in areas such as infrastructure, road transport, health, and education are significantly behind the global efficiency frontier. The fiscal implications associated with the policy proposals in the 2021-2026 government program are significant. How can fiscal policy support the implementation of the government’s key policy proposals while ensuring the sustainability of public finances This is the main question for this Public Expenditure Review (PER). To answer it, this PER will (i) analyze past fiscal performance; (ii) assess the medium-term fiscal impacts of selected policy proposals that are currently being considered such as increase in pensions, changes to social assistance, increased health expenditures, and increased capital expenditure; and (iii) propose options to improve spending efficiency in select areas to provide options for the government to use the available fiscal space to effectively implement these policy proposals.
Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2021: Competition and Firm Recovery Post-COVID-19
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-10-05) World Bank
Although global economic activity is recovering and output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to grow in 2021, containing COVID-19 remains a challenge in the region. Enterprise survey data for the emerging and developing countries in the region show that COVID-19 had a profound and heterogeneous impact on firms. Smaller, younger, and female-run businesses were hit harder and had greater difficulty recovering. But the crisis also played a cleansing role and economic activity in ECA appears to have been reallocated toward more productive firms during the crisis, particularly in countries with more competitive markets. Firms with high pre-crisis labor productivity experienced significantly smaller drops in sales and employment than firms with low pre-crisis labor productivity and were also more likely to adapt to the crisis by increasing online activity and remote work. Many governments in ECA implemented broad policy support schemes to address the initial economic fallout from the crisis. Overall, this government support was more likely to go to less productive and larger firms, regardless of the level of their pre-crisis innovation. As economies enter the economic recovery phase, it will be important for policy makers in all countries to phase out broad policy support measures as soon as appropriate and focus on fostering a competitive business environment, which is key to a strong recovery, resilience to future crises, and sustainable, long-term economic growth.
Macroeconomic Effects of Financing Universal Health Coverage in Armenia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-08) Dudu, Hasan; Chukwuma, Adanna; Manookian, Armineh; Aghazaryan, Anastas; Zeshan, Muhammad
Armenia has made significant progress in improving population health outcomes over the past two decades. However, essential health care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is underutilized in part due to the cost of access. Armenia has also committed as a signatory to the Sustainable Development Goals, to making progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This commitment involves guaranteeing access to essential health care for all its citizens. The Ministry of Health (MoH) has developed a concept note for the introduction for Universal Health Insurance that proposes to mobilize additional revenue through payroll taxes or higher budgetary allocations to the sector. However, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has noted that revenue mobilization options should ideally demonstrate positive returns in terms of economic growth and employment. Therefore, at the request of the MoH, the World Bank has modeled the macroeconomic impacts of options to increase domestic resource mobilization to finance universal access to essential health services in the basic benefits package. The analysis assumes that through UHC reforms that mobilize additional public spending, the government would cover the cost of ninety-five percent of household needs for health care from 2021 to 2050, and that the increase in the demand for care will be supported by improvements in supply-side efficiency. The results suggest that increasing direct taxes is better than increasing indirect taxes as the former are less distortionary and cause smaller allocative inefficiencies.
Survive, Learn, Thrive: Strategic Human Capital Investments Toward a More Prosperous and Inclusive Armenia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09) World Bank
Human capital – the knowledge, skills, and health that people accumulate over their lives and that enable them to realize their potential as productive members of society – is an important contributor to the wealth of all nations regardless of their income status. A child born in Armenia today will be 57 percent as productive when she grows up as she could be if she received a full education and was completely healthy. This reflects the existence in Armenia of deficiencies in its schooling, student performance on harmonized tests, and the protection from non-fatal health risks that it provides beyond childhood. These gaps in human capital formation have negative implications for the economy. The 2013-2014 National Competitiveness Report of Armenia highlighted that insufficient human capital is a binding constraint to the country’s growth. If Armenia ensured full education and complete health in the long run, the per capita Gross Domestic Product could be 1.75 times higher.
Work for a Better Future in Armenia: An Analysis of Jobs Dynamics
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10) Honorati, Maddalena; Johansson de Silva, Sara; Millan, Natalia
This report aims to provide a comprehensive package of timely and relevant input to the Government’s initiatives. In doing so, it brings together into one coherent framework and story-line both new analysis and previous work undertaken for the World Bank’s policy dialogue – in particular the Armenia Systematic Country Diagnostic and Drivers of Dynamism on constraints to growth, international integration, and poverty reduction, and the Skills Towards Employment and Productivity (STEP) surveys on the demand and supply of skills for the Armenian labor market.2 New analysis includes an updated view of the labor supply situation, labor productivity developments, and the links with recent overall macro and global trends. Because of data limitations, the demand side of the jobs agenda remains insufficiently explored, including analysis of the characteristics of job creating firms, the drivers of firm level productivity, and the constraints to firm growth, and hence to job creation. Ongoing data collection initiatives will help close these gaps over the short-to-medium term.
Armenia: Better Understanding International Labor Mobility
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Kerschbaumer, Florentin; Honorati, Maddalena; Yi, Soonhwa
Armenia has experienced massive outflows of its people over years. Emigrants’ share of the Armenian population stood at approximately thirty-two percent in 2017, according to migration data from the United Nations (UN). Half of Armenian emigrants reside in Russia. Other key destinations include Azerbaijan, the United States and Ukraine. Recent migration is primarily temporary labor migration, unlike the permanent emigration that occurred in the 1990s. Remittances resulting from migration constitute important support to the welfare of households and the domestic economy. Nevertheless, the effects of remittances and migration on labor markets are not fully understood. As migration is likely to continue, such questions are still timely and relevant. The Russian-Armenian University (RAU) survey data indicate that about as many people would like to migrate as are current first-time migrants. This policy brief aims to explore and address the two questions about migration and its effects on the labor market in Armenia. It uses data from the household migration surveys conducted by the RAU over the three-year period of 2015-2017. The brief describes the general landscape of temporary labor migration and presents relevant policy recommendations.
Country Partnership Framework for the Republic of Armenia for the Period FY19-FY23
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-02-28) World Bank Group
The country partnership framework (CPF) for FY19-FY23 outlines a program of support to the Government of Armenia’s vision for a just, inclusive, and citizen-centric Armenia. The World Bank Group (WBG) strategy will capitalize on the new momentum for deeper reforms and commitment to good governance brought about by recent political changes in Armenia to support a rebalancing of the economy toward a new growth model. The CPF presents to focus on: (i) boosting export enablers and firm competitiveness; (ii) enhancing human capital and equity; and (iii) sustainably managing environmental and natural resources. The CPF will seek opportunities under each focus area to incorporate key elements of good governance and inclusion: public accountability and transparency, citizen engagement, gender equity, spatial equity, and digital connectivity. The CPF focus areas were informed by extensive stakeholder consultations with the government, development partners, the private sector, and civil society; by the development challenges and opportunities highlighted in the government program and the WBG’s systematic country diagnostic (SCD) for Armenia.
Republic of Armenia Leveling the STEM Playing Field for Women: Differences in Opportunity and Outcomes in Fields of Study and the Labor Market
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05) World Bank
This report summarizes the challenges facing Armenian women at school and in the workplace with a special focus on STEM-related employment. As the world transitions to an increasingly digital economy, jobs in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) will become a powerful driver of economic growth in the twenty-first century. Changes in economic productivity brought through technological innovation require countries to focus on STEM; these high-productivity fields are increasingly in demand in the global economy, and are the key to competitiveness and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.Parity between men and women was one of the major achievements of socialist regimes in Eastern Europe and Central Cultural stereotypes about the types of work women should engage in and their responsibilities at home present the strongest barrier to equality between women and men in Armenia Asia. Although access, enrolment, and achievement rates are gender-equal in Armenia, women and girls tend to self-select out of STEM education tracks and career fields. At the level of education institutions, policy actions can address issues of access, information, biases, and system-wide changes to promote gender neutrality. In the short term, schools can engage teachers and students in discussions about the benefits of STEM fields of study and careers, encourage girls to embrace their interest in math and science, and provide positive role models of women who work in STEM careers. Policy action can help women make the school-to-work transition and promote their career advancement once they are working. At a national level, policy and regulatory actions can address systemic issues of bias, market failure, and information. Even at this level, some quick wins are feasible. The government may consider whether public information campaigns are needed to promote positive aspects of STEM careers to students in middle school and above, such as greater income, flexibility, and status, as well as launch a media campaign to promote and celebrate positive female role models in STEM. STEM sectors are an important source of growth for Armenia given the country’s geography and closed borders. Also, considering Armenia’s adverse demographic trends, lifting women’s participation in key growth potential sectors, including STEM, is increasingly critical.