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Publication
Macroeconomic Effects of Financing Universal Health Coverage in Armenia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-08)Armenia has made significant progress in improving population health outcomes over the past two decades. However, essential health care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is underutilized in part due to the cost of access. Armenia has also committed as a signatory to the Sustainable Development Goals, to making progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This commitment involves guaranteeing access to essential health care for all its citizens. The Ministry of Health (MoH) has developed a concept note for the introduction for Universal Health Insurance that proposes to mobilize additional revenue through payroll taxes or higher budgetary allocations to the sector. However, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has noted that revenue mobilization options should ideally demonstrate positive returns in terms of economic growth and employment. Therefore, at the request of the MoH, the World Bank has modeled the macroeconomic impacts of options to increase domestic resource mobilization to finance universal access to essential health services in the basic benefits package. The analysis assumes that through UHC reforms that mobilize additional public spending, the government would cover the cost of ninety-five percent of household needs for health care from 2021 to 2050, and that the increase in the demand for care will be supported by improvements in supply-side efficiency. The results suggest that increasing direct taxes is better than increasing indirect taxes as the former are less distortionary and cause smaller allocative inefficiencies. -
Publication
Survive, Learn, Thrive: Strategic Human Capital Investments Toward a More Prosperous and Inclusive Armenia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09)Human capital – the knowledge, skills, and health that people accumulate over their lives and that enable them to realize their potential as productive members of society – is an important contributor to the wealth of all nations regardless of their income status. A child born in Armenia today will be 57 percent as productive when she grows up as she could be if she received a full education and was completely healthy. This reflects the existence in Armenia of deficiencies in its schooling, student performance on harmonized tests, and the protection from non-fatal health risks that it provides beyond childhood. These gaps in human capital formation have negative implications for the economy. The 2013-2014 National Competitiveness Report of Armenia highlighted that insufficient human capital is a binding constraint to the country’s growth. If Armenia ensured full education and complete health in the long run, the per capita Gross Domestic Product could be 1.75 times higher. -
Publication
Work for a Better Future in Armenia: An Analysis of Jobs Dynamics
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10)This report aims to provide a comprehensive package of timely and relevant input to the Government’s initiatives. In doing so, it brings together into one coherent framework and story-line both new analysis and previous work undertaken for the World Bank’s policy dialogue – in particular the Armenia Systematic Country Diagnostic and Drivers of Dynamism on constraints to growth, international integration, and poverty reduction, and the Skills Towards Employment and Productivity (STEP) surveys on the demand and supply of skills for the Armenian labor market.2 New analysis includes an updated view of the labor supply situation, labor productivity developments, and the links with recent overall macro and global trends. Because of data limitations, the demand side of the jobs agenda remains insufficiently explored, including analysis of the characteristics of job creating firms, the drivers of firm level productivity, and the constraints to firm growth, and hence to job creation. Ongoing data collection initiatives will help close these gaps over the short-to-medium term. -
Publication
Armenia: Better Understanding International Labor Mobility
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06)Armenia has experienced massive outflows of its people over years. Emigrants’ share of the Armenian population stood at approximately thirty-two percent in 2017, according to migration data from the United Nations (UN). Half of Armenian emigrants reside in Russia. Other key destinations include Azerbaijan, the United States and Ukraine. Recent migration is primarily temporary labor migration, unlike the permanent emigration that occurred in the 1990s. Remittances resulting from migration constitute important support to the welfare of households and the domestic economy. Nevertheless, the effects of remittances and migration on labor markets are not fully understood. As migration is likely to continue, such questions are still timely and relevant. The Russian-Armenian University (RAU) survey data indicate that about as many people would like to migrate as are current first-time migrants. This policy brief aims to explore and address the two questions about migration and its effects on the labor market in Armenia. It uses data from the household migration surveys conducted by the RAU over the three-year period of 2015-2017. The brief describes the general landscape of temporary labor migration and presents relevant policy recommendations. -
Publication
Republic of Armenia Leveling the STEM Playing Field for Women: Differences in Opportunity and Outcomes in Fields of Study and the Labor Market
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05)This report summarizes the challenges facing Armenian women at school and in the workplace with a special focus on STEM-related employment. As the world transitions to an increasingly digital economy, jobs in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) will become a powerful driver of economic growth in the twenty-first century. Changes in economic productivity brought through technological innovation require countries to focus on STEM; these high-productivity fields are increasingly in demand in the global economy, and are the key to competitiveness and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.Parity between men and women was one of the major achievements of socialist regimes in Eastern Europe and Central Cultural stereotypes about the types of work women should engage in and their responsibilities at home present the strongest barrier to equality between women and men in Armenia Asia. Although access, enrolment, and achievement rates are gender-equal in Armenia, women and girls tend to self-select out of STEM education tracks and career fields. At the level of education institutions, policy actions can address issues of access, information, biases, and system-wide changes to promote gender neutrality. In the short term, schools can engage teachers and students in discussions about the benefits of STEM fields of study and careers, encourage girls to embrace their interest in math and science, and provide positive role models of women who work in STEM careers. Policy action can help women make the school-to-work transition and promote their career advancement once they are working. At a national level, policy and regulatory actions can address systemic issues of bias, market failure, and information. Even at this level, some quick wins are feasible. The government may consider whether public information campaigns are needed to promote positive aspects of STEM careers to students in middle school and above, such as greater income, flexibility, and status, as well as launch a media campaign to promote and celebrate positive female role models in STEM. STEM sectors are an important source of growth for Armenia given the country’s geography and closed borders. Also, considering Armenia’s adverse demographic trends, lifting women’s participation in key growth potential sectors, including STEM, is increasingly critical. -
Publication
How the Crisis Changed the Pace of Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity: Armenia Poverty Assessment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06)This report examines Armenia’s experience in reducing poverty and raising the welfare of the least well-off in the country in the years since 2009. What households spend on consumption is an indicator of their welfare. As the economy recovered from crisis, the least well-off enjoyed some growth in consumption spending, but not as much as in the years up to 2009. Moreover, growth has become less pro-poor in relative terms because the less well-off enjoyed lower growth in consumption than the better-off. As a result, although consumption did translate into a reduction in poverty, inequality is now higher than before 2009. In 2013, 32 percent of Armenia’s population lived below the national poverty line, a poverty rate higher than in pre-crisis years but down from the high of 35.8 percent in 2010. In fact, between 2012 and 2013, poverty reduction seems to have stalled. This report looks at the micro and macro aspects of Armenia’s poverty reduction experience to: (a) describe the key features of post-crisis poverty, inequality, and consumption growth; (b) examine the drivers of poverty reduction in this period; and (c) explore reasons why future growth might not be as pro-poor as in the past.