This series on commodity risk management aims to disseminate the results of World Bank research that describes the feasibility of developing countries’ ability to utilize market-based tools to mitigate risks associated with commodity price volatility and weather.
This note for India is based on the
paper Scenario Planning to guide long-term investments in
Agricultural Science and Technology (report no. 37066).
Scenarios are an important and useful tool, providing a
neutral space for discussion, and helping to build consensus
among various stakeholders. The objective is to examine
possible future developments that could impact individuals,
organizations, or societies to find directions for decisions
will most benefit any future environment. Useful in strategy
formulation, scenarios can be used in policy development,
conflict resolution, group learning, and rehearsing
management decisions. The note analyzed results of workshops
organized to define the way forward relative to the Indian
Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). The lessons learned
include: (a) applying the analysis on larger, global issues
may be far more challenging; (b) it is recommended the
scenario process be implemented ahead of project
preparation; (c) it is essential to allocate sufficient time
and resources for creating client ownership and
understanding; (d) it is of paramount importance to compose
a multidisciplinary scenario team led by experienced
scenario leaders; and (e) it is also very important to
include participants of the groups the process aims to influence.