Other Public Sector Study

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Time to Quit: The Tobacco Tax Increase and Household Welfare in Bosnia and Herzegovina

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-01) Fuchs, Alan ; Orlic, Edvard ; Cancho, Cesar

This paper uses an extended cost-benefit analysis to estimate the distributional effect of tobacco tax increases in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The analysis considers the effect on household income of an increase in tobacco prices, changes in medical expenses, and the prolongation of working years under various scenarios, based on data in three waves of the national Household Budget Survey. One critical contribution is a quantification of the impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. The results indicate that a rise in tobacco prices generates positive income variations across the lowest income groups in the population (the bottom 20 percent). At the same time, tobacco price increases have negative income effects among middle-income and upper-income groups. These effects are larger, the higher the income level. If benefits through lower medical expenses and an expansion in working years are considered, the positive effect is acerbated among the lowest income groups. The middle of the distribution sees the income effect turn from negative to positive, and the top 40 percent, although continuing to experience a negative effect, see the magnitude of this effect diminish. Altogether, these effects mean that increases in tobacco prices have a pro-poor, progressive effect in Bosnia and Herzegovina. These results also hold within entities and across urban and rural areas.
Stimulating Business Angels in the Czech Republic

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10) World Bank Group

This report provides a systematic assessment of business angel activities, and the ecosystem surrounding innovation finance, in the Czech Republic. Based on literature reviews, published data sources and local stakeholder interviews, the report distills findings related to the demand for and supply of risk investments, and offers policy recommendations for stimulating business angels. The report characterizes the Angel ecosystem as emerging with potential for growth. It is small both in terms of the number of investors and the amount invested. There appears to be a general lack of syndication of investments and concentration of investments in the capital (Prague) and in the information, communication, and technology (ICT) sector. On the demand side, a credible deal flow does exist, although it falls short of constituting a critical mass needed to support the development of the market. While issues in the local environment may affect the flow of angel investments, these are not insurmountable, based on the country’s competitive ranking on relevant global and European indicators. Finally, the report proposes a number of policy recommendations for enhancing business angel awareness and investments, including data collection and mapping of early stage market activities (short-term), creation of Czech National Angel Association (medium-term), and implementation of incentivization measures such as co-investment funds and tax incentives (long-term).
Reducing Tobacco Use Through Taxation in the Russian Federation: A Modelled Assessment of Two Policy Options

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01) World Bank Group

This report presents results of the modelling exercise in terms of excise tax increases for the period 2018–2021, including average excise tax and revenue mobilization options; it also compares the tobacco excise tax already included in the country's current tax code with that necessary to achieve proposed EU minimum rates by 2021 (Minimum EU excise tax rates scenario).
Re-Mapping Opportunity: Making Best Use of the Economic Potential of Russia's Regions

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03-01) World Bank

In order to understand a country as large and diverse as Russia, it is extremely important to consider spatial patterns of economic development. As Russia looks for new drivers of economic growth, it is important to understand the structural conditions that have defined economic development in Russia’s regions. This report uses the Economic Potential Index (EPI) methodology to identify the conditions that drive regional development. Economic potential is the level of productivity that is possible for a region to achieve given its structural endowments, which are characteristics that are hard to alter in the short run. The methodology used in this report combines quantitative analysis of drivers of productivity across regions with in-depth case studies that focus on the role of regional governments and institutions in converting endowments into economic outcomes. This methodology generates insights that are relevant for both national and regional governments. The first chapter of this report provides an overview of regional development in Russia over the last 25 years and identifies “Russia-specific” national structural conditions that may affect regional development. The second chapter discusses the results of an assessment of economic potential at the regional level and the factors that shape it in Russia. The third chapter focuses on the role of national and regional governance, policy, and institutions in promoting economic development of the regions. The final chapter proposes policy priorities for both regional and national authorities.
Assessment of Tax Compliance Costs for Businesses in the Kyrgyz Republic

(World Bank, Bishkek, 2017-12) World Bank Group

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, is the largest global development institute focused on supporting the private sector in emerging economies. Through its work with more than 2,000 companies worldwide, IFC mobilizes capital, expertise, and influence to create markets and opportunities for developing countries. The objective of the IFC Central Asia Tax Project is to improve compliance with mandatory requirements of tax legislation through increased transparency and simplification of tax administration procedures. Simplification of tax accounting procedures will reduce costs of tax compliance, lessen the administrative burden on small and medium businesses, reduce barriers to entry into the formal economy, and serve as a driver for economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic. The key element of reforms is an immediate assessment of their efficiency and possibility for adjustments based on assessment results. With this view, IFC, through its technical assistance tax reforms projects, has conducted a series of studies, which help monitor the tax system reforming processes in the Kyrgyz Republic. The main goal of the studies was a periodic assessment of time and costs to taxpayers in the Kyrgyz Republic in complying with the mandatory requirements of the tax legislation. Equitable intervals of measurements allowed an immediate assessment of the impact of implemented tax reforms on the cost of taxpayers to comply with tax legislation. In addition, actual data on the tax system status helped elaborate concise recommendations for the Government with the focus on elimination of identified issues and reduction of the tax administration costs to businesses. This report outlines the results of all three rounds of business environment surveys in the area of tax regulation; it includes the estimates of tax accounting costs of taxpayers in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2012, 2014, and 2016.
Assessment of Tax Compliance Costs for Businesses in the Republic of Tajikistan

(Washington, DC, 2017-12) International Finance Corporation

The principal outcome of the tax reform implemented in recent years in the Republic of Tajikistan is the reduction of administrative burden on the private sector associated with compliance with tax legislation through simplified tax procedures and less time required to pass these procedures. The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, is the largest global development institute, which is focused on support to the private sector in emerging economies. The objective of the IFC Central Asia Tax Project is to improve compliance with mandatory requirements of tax legislation through better transparency and simplification of tax administration procedures. IFC through its technical assistance tax reforms projects, has conducted a series of studies, which allow to monitor the tax system reforming processes in Tajikistan. The main goal of the studies was a periodic assessment of time and costs of taxpayers in Tajikistan to comply with the mandatory requirements of the tax legislation. As part of the study, three rounds of measurements were performed, where the tax administration costs of the Tajik taxpayers were assessed at a regular time span - in 2012, 2014, and 2016. This report presents the results of all three rounds of business environment surveys in the area of tax regulation. It includes the estimates of tax accounting costs of taxpayers in Tajikistan in 2012, 2014, and 2016.
Kazakhstan: Enhancing the Fiscal Framework to Support Economic Transformation

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-11-27) World Bank

Kazakhstan benefited from the oil boom of 2000–14 that led to income growth and poverty reduction and helped build a fiscal cushion to stabilize the economy during downturns. During this period, nominal GDP per capita increased ten-fold, from US$1,229 in 2000 to US$12,807 in 2014, mainly due to price effects from currency appreciation that followed an expansion of the oil sector. Income growth led to a substantial decline in the poverty rate, from 77 percent in 2001 to 16 percent in 2014. As oil output more than doubled and the oil price super-cycle emerged, the Government of Kazakhstan (GoK) accumulated substantial fiscal savings in its oil fund, the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK).2 Fiscal savings in the NFRK peaked at US$73 billion (33 percent of GDP) at end-2014. A portion of these funds was used for anti-crisis programs in 2007-10, during which time the fiscal stimulus program totaled US$18 billion (about 15 percent of GDP). The authorities must urgently adopt and start implementing a fiscal consolidation strategy and refocus macro-fiscal policy on promoting diversified growth and high-quality job creation. The countercyclical fiscal stance adopted in 2014 led to an increase in the nonoil fiscal deficit (NOD), which is too high to ensure medium-term fiscal sustainability and threatens the long-term growth potential of the nonoil tradable economy. Successful fiscal consolidation would require: (i) reducing inefficient expenditure that distorts private incentives while redirecting savings toward productivity-enhancing spending; and (ii) eliminating inefficient tax benefits that result in an uneven playing field for investment. While pursuing a fiscal consolidation effort over the medium term, there are potential benefits to reviewing Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy framework and institutions with the goal of strengthening their coherence, credibility, and flexibility. This Public Finance Review (PFR) aims to help the authorities identify areas for fiscal consolidation that will bring about fiscal sustainability in the medium term and support economic transformation in the long run. While developing a fiscal consolidation strategy, the authorities should address four policy areas to enhance fiscal sustainability and support economic transformation. These are discussed in the following four policy focus chapters: (i) enhancing the credibility of the fiscal policy framework; (ii) improving public spending efficiency and effectiveness; (iii) mobilizing nonoil revenue and optimizing the tax system; and (iv) strengthening fiscal policy institutions.
Ukraine Fiscal Incentives for Science, Technology and Innovation Activities: Good Practice Review Report

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-11-01) World Bank

This report is one of four analytical pieces on Ukraine’s innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystem developed by the World Bank’s Ukraine Technical Assistance on Innovation, supported by the Swedish Ukraine Financial and Enterprise Sector Recovery and Growth Trust Fund. This report reviews different international good practices in introducing and implementing fiscal incentives for supporting science, technology, and innovation (STI) and provides policy recommendations relevant to the implementation of such incentives in Ukraine. It focuses on tax incentives as an indirect financial support mechanism for the private sector’s research and development (R&D) and innovation activity. It identifies the costs and benefits of a variety of fiscal incentives (six different regimes) to support STI that have been widely used worldwide. It is important to note that the good practice examples outlined in this report have all been implemented as part of a broader agenda for strengthening the science and technology base of the countries in which they were put in place. Each of the policies, in isolation, would not have been sufficient to achieve the objectives of the government. The report describes the Ukrainian context, focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of Ukraine’s science and technology base, followed by a discussion of the recent
Regressive or Progressive?: The Effect of Tobacco Taxes in Ukraine

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-09-27) Fuchs, Alan ; Meneses, Francisco

Tobacco taxes are usually considered regressive as the poorest individuals allocate larger shares of their budget towards the purchase of tobacco related products. However, because these taxes also discourage tobacco use, some of the most adverse effects and their economic costs are reduced, including lower life expectancy at birth, higher medical expenses, increased years of disability among smokers, and the effects of secondhand smoke. This paper projects the effects of an increase in the tobacco tax on household welfare in Ukraine. It considers three price-elasticity scenarios among income deciles of the population. Results show that although tobacco taxes are often criticized for being regressive in the short-run, a more comprehensive scenario that includes medical expenses and working years, the benefits of tobacco taxes far exceed the increase in tax liability, benefitting in large measure lower income households. Our results also indicate that lower health expenditure seems to be the main driver because of the reduction in tobacco-related diseases that require expensive treatments. Tobacco taxes are also associated with positive distributional effects related to the higher long-term price elasticities of tobacco consumption.
Latvia Tax Review

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-06-28) World Bank

Latvia’s Ministry of Finance requested the World Bank to collaborate on a review of the country’s tax system as input for the design a medium-term tax strategy. The motivation behind the tax review is to find options to increase tax revenues by three percentage points of GDP to reach a target tax-to-GDP ratio of 33 percent in the medium term.1 In Latvia, tax revenues are lower than predicted for its income level and institutional development. Latvia’s tax policy needs to be restructured to support economic development and raise living standards. The speed of convergence in Latvia to average income levels in the European Union (EU) was impressive until the 2008-2009 crisis, but since then output recovery has been fast but not rapid enough for real GDP to return to pre-crisis level. A critical challenge then is to boost productivity growth in the economy: the level of productivity is low relative to OECD economies and its growth has slowed notably since the crisis. Increasing labor productivity is particularly important if overall productivity is to rise: informality and inactivity reduce both labor activity and productivity. Increased investment in skills and good health are an important part of the labor productivity and participation story—particularly as Latvia rapidly ages. But reducing the reliance of the tax system on low-skilled labor is also a key policy challenge. Latvia’s tax system puts substantially more of a burden on labor compared to capital or consumption. This is all the more concerning given that wages for much of the population are low and so the current flat income tax structure has implications for social inclusion and poverty. Inequality of (after-tax) disposable income in Latvia is one of the highest in the EU, with only Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania having higher inequality. The tax system entails distributional choices and one of the objectives of the review is to look at options to improve the equity of the system. Here both vertical equity, i.e. taxing less those of lower income, and horizontal equity, i.e. taxing the same those in economically similar situations, are of importance. Governments are inevitably confronted with an equity-efficiency trade-off: higher taxes on the richer parts of the population, to raise revenue and to finance benefits for poorer groups, can distort the economic incentives for work, entrepreneurship, saving and risk-taking of middle- and higher-income individuals. At the same time, redistribution to low-income individuals, through tax credits or benefits, could weaken labor supply incentives. On the other hand, fairness, or equity is an important consideration for widespread acceptance and sustainability of the tax system.