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Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Fuchs Tarlovsky, Alan ; Gonzalez Icaza, FernandaThis paper assesses the welfare and distributional effects of raising taxes on tobaccoin Vietnam. Tobacco taxes are recognized as effective policy tools to reduce tobaccoconsumption and to improve health outcomes. However, policy makers often hesitateto use them because of claims of their potentially regressive effects. According to thoseclaims, poorer households are particularly hurt by tobacco tax policies, as cigarettepurchases represent a larger share of their budgets relative to higher-income smokers.The paper argues that the claims on the regressive effects of tobacco tax policies arebased on naive, shortsighted, and incorrect estimations. Tobacco-related illnessesdamage health outcomes and the quality of the lives of smokers and their families, whilethey also cost billions of dollars in medical expenditures and losses in human capital andproductivity every year. Tobacco consumption imposes heavy economic burdens onhouseholds and governments, in addition to its well-known negative health and socialimpacts. Raising taxes on cigarettes dissuades consumption, hence improving healthoutcomes, adverting premature deaths, and reducing direct and indirect economic costs.The analysis applies the Extended Cost Benefit Analysis (ECBA) methodology to simulateempirically the costs, as well as the benefits of increasing the prices on cigarettes onthe welfare of Vietnamese households. Following a well-established body of literature,the ECBA acknowledges that there may be short-term direct negative effects of raisingprices on tobacco, as smokers can struggle to continue to purchase tobacco with theirunchanged household budgets. However, the model also incorporates two of the mainbenefits of reducing tobacco consumption by increasing taxes: (a) the reduction insmoking-related medical expenses borne by households and (b) the additional incomesthat households can earn by preventing years of productive life lost due to smoking attributablepremature deaths. A critical contribution of the ECBA is to incorporate decile-specific price elasticities of demand for cigarettes, to quantify the behavioral responses or sensitivity of smokers in different income groups to changes in cigarette prices. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first available empirical exercise to estimate price elasticities by income decile in Vietnam. Consistent with the literature and with empirical findings in other countries, the price elasticities of demand for cigarettes are larger for lower-income households. Lower income smokers are likely to reduce their tobacco consumption more drastically, when faced with a price increase. The ultimate distributional effect on welfare of the increasein the price of cigarettes due to tax increases will then depend on assessing the potentialbenefits against the short-term costs.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-01) Del Carmen, Giselle ; Fuchs, Alan ; Genoni, Maria EugeniaDespite the obvious positive health impacts of tobacco taxation, an argument raised against it is that poor households bear the burden of the increased prices because of their higher share of spending on tobacco. This report includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016/17. One contribution of this analysis is to quantify the impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. This shows that an increase in the price of cigarettes in Bangladesh has small consumption impacts and does not significantly change the poverty rate or consumption inequality. These findings stem from relatively even cigarette consumption patterns between less and more welloff households. These results hold even if one considers some small substitution through the use of bidis, which are largely consumed by the poor. The short-term consumption impacts are also negligible compared with the estimated gains because of savings in medical costs and the greater number of productive years of life.
Publication(World Bank, Jakarta, 2018-05-21) World BankIndonesia’s civil service has expanded by 25 percent in the last 12 years, which presents opportunities for the government of Indonesia (GoI) to work toward the goal of reducing poverty and enhancing social welfare. Yet civil servants must be skilled, knowledgeable, and effective at their jobs to maximize their contribution to society and the economy. This report examines an original data set constructed from GoI data on all the country’s active civil servants to examine personal characteristics including age, gender, education level (which proxies for skill), and promotions. It addresses two important questions: 1. Are highly skilled and knowledgeable workers currently being attracted, recruited, and promoted?; 2. Are civil servants from historically underrepresented groups, including women, being given equal opportunities for advancement and promotion? The study recommends government action in three policy areas: 1. Increase promotion opportunities for women and increase their overall representation in senior positions; 2. Distribute skilled civil servants more evenly throughout the country by improving the incentives for highly skilled service providers to rotate into poor and remote regions; 3. Plan for the upcoming wave of retirements within the civil service by recruiting more women from top universities and hiring medical and teaching staff only from licensed and accredited institutions.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06-11) Junquera-Varela, Raul Felix ; Vostroknutova, EkaterinaThis report takes an in-depth look, from a policy perspective, at the trade-offs between increasing tax collection and improving the equity of the fiscal system. As part of this effort, the report places the Peruvian tax system in an international context and considers the key challenges the government is facing in its drive to increase revenue. It also conducts qualitative and quantitative analyses of the impact of taxes and transfers on inequality and on the distribution of income. The report then makes several policy proposals that would increase tax collection without jeopardizing equity, and it then simulates the impacts of these changes on collection and equity. This advice spanned the 2012-2014 period, and included research on several tax policy-related issues, such as legal advice on double-taxation treaties and in-depth analyses of tax exemptions. To keep the focus tight, some of the work is not included in this report. Contributions were originally written in Spanish to provide the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) with timely advice on the subject and were discussed with the counterparts during and immediately after its preparation. As a result of prioritizing this process, two teams focused on different areas of research and were able to contribute to the analytical base behind the ongoing tax reform. The report summarizes the main elements of this process and resulting advice. It comes out at the same time as the finance ministry announces the first set of tax reforms that were informed by this work.