Country Economic Memorandum

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2184

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Bhutan Country Economic Memorandum, September 2024: Maximizing Bhutan’s Potential for Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-09) World Bank
Bhutan expects to double its hydropower capacity over the next decade, which is expected to have significant effects on the economy. Estimates using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario) indicate that the anticipated doubling of the hydropower generation capacity is expected to result in higher growth. However, in keeping with past experience, this growth will not be accompanied by a diversification of the economy. The economy is expected to shift towards electricity and closely related sectors. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is expected to reduce output in non-hydro tradable sectors, especially tourism-related exports. This suggests that there is scope to strengthen the government’s current approach for managing and distributing hydropower revenues to support the development of non-hydro sectors and address the negative effects of the Dutch Disease. The availability of hydropower rents provides the government with an opportunity to actively support non-hydro productivity growth and generate employment. This country economic memorandum (CEM) identifies three key areas that require urgent policy focus for achieving more robust and broad-based growth and creating more and better jobs while bolstering climate resilience: (I) facilitating economic diversification, (II) enhancing agricultural productivity and crop diversification, and (III) reforming the financial sector to support economic diversification.
From Landlocked to Land of Opportunity: Paraguay Country Economic Memorandum
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-09) World Bank
Paraguay has been a beacon of macroeconomic stability, but like the rest of the region, its average growth has moderated since 2013, which has affected the pace of poverty reduction. To accelerate growth and poverty reduction, it is important to continue to increase resilience against external shocks, productivity, and the sustainability of growth. Improving the quality and efficiency of public institutions, market efficiency, innovation, education, and infrastructure will promote economic productivity. Diversifying exports away from unprocessed commodities will strengthen economic resilience but will be a lengthy process. Meanwhile, the continued commitment to stable macroeconomic and fiscal policies, a deepened financial sector, and risk mitigation policies will increase economic resilience. Paraguay does not have to choose between profitability and sustainability: both are possible and complementary. Greener growth will yield a stronger, more prosperous economy.
Botswana - Country Economic Memorandum: In Search of New Drivers of Inclusive Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-07) World Bank
Botswana aspires to become a high-income economy and eradicate extreme poverty by 2036, but it has shifted from a top to a mid-range performer over the past decade. The public sector-led growth model built on diamond rents shows signs of exhaustion, while the economy has become more vulnerable to financial, climate and health shocks. Botswana can meet its aspirations and avoid getting caught in a middle-income country trap with a greater emphasis on creating the conditions for productivity-led inclusive growth. This report intends to be an input into the government’s strategic vision and policymaking to help move Botswana closer to its ambitious objective of becoming a high-income economy by 2036.
Eswatini - Country Economic Memorandum: In search of the drivers of inclusive growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-06) World Bank
This report intends to be an input into the government’s strategic vision and policymaking to help move Eswatini closer to its ambitious objective of boosting inclusive growth and becoming an upper middle-income economy by: Carrying out diagnostics on past economic performance and undertaking forecasting analysis for potential future growth trajectories while uncovering binding constraints and realistic opportunities; Using a conceptual approach based on well established methodologies and benchmarking analysis with a set of aspirational peer countries; Emphasizing a growth strategy underpinned by greater investment, productivity, innovation, inclusion and government effectiveness; Drawing lessons from the policy experience of countries that faced similar challenges, including some that graduated or are close to graduating from upper middle- to higher-income status.
Zambia Country Economic Memorandum, June 2024: Unlocking Productivity and Economic Transformation for Better Jobs
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-28) World Bank
Zambia needs to increase productivity and accelerate economic transformation to achieve sustained and inclusive growth. Zambia’s debt resolution and ongoing reforms are expected to support macroeconomic stability and reignite private-sector investment. By October 2023, the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) reached an agreement with the Official Creditor’s Committee (OCC) on debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework and, by late March 2024, it was announced that a deal was reached with bondholders. As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the Zambian authorities are in the final phase of debt negotiations involving the other private lenders. Since 2021, the GRZ has launched an ambitious reform program. It saw the primary balance improve by 6.6 percentage points in 2022, bringing it to a surplus and cutting inflation by half. The authorities have introduced measures to boost private investment and have rebalanced the composition of government spending. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) discusses two pathways that can support Zambia’s productivity-enhancing economic transformation, generate better jobs, and deliver sustained and inclusive growth. Economies transform when more people join the labor force and find jobs, become more productive in them, or reallocate to more productive jobs. These factors cause average labor productivity to rise with labor incomes. But in Zambia, productivity has been on a declining trend, and only the capital-intensive mining sector has seen significant labor productivity increases. Raising the productivity of agriculture is the first pathway for tackling Zambia’s development challenges (Chapter 2). It has enormous potential to drive poverty reduction, but expensive and distortive support programs, coupled with increasing climate hazards, constrain productivity growth and dampen opportunities to diversify beyond maize. The second pathway involves Zambia making critical economy-wide reforms to unlock broad-based private sector productivity growth and increase its role in driving jobs and economic transformation (Chapter 3). Two background papers that take deep dives into these two themes are published alongside this report.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Economic Memorandum, January 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-02-13) World Bank
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) have made significant development progress since the last Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) in 2005, most notably in obtaining EU candidate status in 2022. Despite persistent political tensions, the country has enjoyed nearly three decades of peace. The infrastructure, severely damaged during the 1990s, has been rebuilt, with ongoing investments in improving road and rail connectivity. The policymaking process involves elected officials navigating a complex, politically fragmented landscape, characterized by national quotas, ensuring representation for Bosnia’s, Croats, and Serbs. The representation of individuals who do not identify with any of these three national groups has not been resolved yet. These factors make BiH unique in Europe, rooted in the Dayton Agreement of 1995, which brought an end to a devastating war that claimed approximately 100,000 lives and displaced over half of the population. Now, almost two decades after the last Economic Memorandum, BiH features as an EU candidate country. Macroeconomic policies have tended to favor short-term objectives at the expense of long-term growth, with a focus on fostering consumption rather than investment. Current budget spending, particularly on public wages, pensions, and social benefits has constrained capital expenditure over the past 10-15 years. Consequently, public capital expenditures in both entities are limited, with only half the size in comparison to their Western Balkan peers. Furthermore, there is a discernable lack of coordination across the entities within sectors such as transport infrastructure, particularly railways and roads that contribute to important intermediate input distortions, as well as digital and energy infrastructure. Moreover, while sharing the same priorities as reflected in the socio-economic reform package, the speed of reform implementation differs across entities. Foreign direct investment inflows, meanwhile, remain insufficient, and significantly below regional peers. Thus, a shift towards structural and fiscal reforms with medium- to long-term benefits, such as a more efficient social transfer system using social cards, as well as higher and more coordinated capital expenditures across the entities could pave the way for higher productivity and thus a more competitive economy.
Djibouti Country Economic Memorandum, January 2024 - Djibouti Beyond the Ports and Bases: A Path to Prosperity for All
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-02-12) World Bank
Over the past two decades, Djibouti’s economy has demonstrated remarkable growth, reaching the status of lower middle-income country. However, this remarkable performance was achieved despite the enduring presence of persistent structural challenges, notably the high cost of electricity and telecommunications, and a fragile business environment. In this context, economic growth has predominantly relied on debt-financed public investment and private investments with limited linkages to the broader economy or job creation. Furthermore, the positive impacts of economic growth have not been evenly distributed across all sections of society, raising concerns about inclusive development. Moreover, Djibouti is increasingly vulnerable to climate change. As Djibouti embarks on its second phase of development, it is crucial to ensure that the benefits of growth are felt by all segments of society, particularly women and youth. Addressing these issues is crucial to foster a more conducive environment for businesses and stimulate economic growth. Recognizing these challenges, the Government of Djibouti has recalibrated its development strategy through the “Djibouti 2035 Vision” and the National Development Plan (NDP) for 2020-2024. By effectively addressing these priorities Djibouti can pave the way to a transformative path toward a more dynamic, inclusive, and poverty-reducing future.
Malawi Country Economic Memorandum: A Narrow Path to Prosperity
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-08) World Bank
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) argues for a significant shift in policy to enable a virtuous cycle of sustained and inclusive economic growth, outlined infive building blocks. Chapter 1 identifies policy priorities to restore the macroeconomic fundamentals for growth through fiscal reform, debt sustainability, external rebalancing, and monetary stability. The following three chapters address three core structural constraints to growth and propose key reforms to accelerate agricultural commercialization and improve rural labor markets (Chapter 2), enable the private sector to drive productivity growth (Chapter 3), and catalyze exports and foreign investment (Chapter 4). Acknowledging that implementing key growth-enhancing policies—be they macroeconomic or structural—are the result of complex political economy and governance arrangements, Chapter 5 focuses on how past Malawian successes can inform future sectoral policies, reforms, and strategies to achieve the goals outlined in the Malawi 2063.
Democratic Republic of the Congo Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) - Pathways to Economic Diversification and Regional Trade Integration: Fostering Economic Diversification and Regional Integration for Faster Growth, Job Creation and Poverty Reduction
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-26) World Bank
Economic Diversification in the DRC is hindered by a business environment and key regulatory and fiscal constraints that are not conducive to private sector-led growth. Policies aimed to address the main bottlenecks hindering sustainable and inclusive growth include: i) improving business regulation; ii) promoting access to digital, electricity, and financing; iii) addressing inefficient taxation and fiscal policy challenges; iv) encouraging fiscal decentralization; and v) attracting value chain development. The two case studies discussed in complementary reports are intended to better illustrate the opportunities and challenges described in the Country Economic Memorandum and considered important for economic diversification and job creation through structural transformation and stronger trade and regional integration. The focus is on two key potential growth-driving sectors (mining and agribusiness) that offer substantial opportunities for expansion in the context of global energy transition, food insecurity, and further regional integration. While opportunities and constraints specific to the EV battery-related mining and cassava value chain are presented (and include a climate dimension), most of the challenges and recommendations could also apply to several other products or sectors of the economy (e.g., maize or any manufactured or processed product). The purpose of the illustrative case studies is to highlight how the business environment in general is not attractive to private investment, SME expansion, or product competitiveness.
The Union of Comoros Country Economic Memorandum: Boosting Growth for Greater Opportunities
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-14) World Bank
Comoros is at the crossroads to redefine its future and become an upper-middle income country by 2050, but this would require implementing an ambitious reform agenda that focuses on increasing productivity and private investment. The current business-as-usual policy framework has delivered low private investment and human capital, sectoral growth below potential, and no poverty eradication. Pursuing this policy framework, which would not allow Comoros to reach the GDP growth target of 7.5 percent by 2030 laid out in the national development plan, could result in GDP per capita of US$1,890 and a poverty rate of 22.9 percent by 2050. By contrast, under a policy framework of ambitious reforms that include measures to increase inclusiveness, Comoros could reach a GDP per capita of US$3,934 and reduce the poverty rate to below 5 percent by 2050. Supported by the continuous implementation of ambitious reforms, such a level of GDP per capita could have Comoros reach upper-middle-income status by 2050. Under this ambitious reform agenda, private investment would average 11.9 percent of GDP in 2023–2050, and total factor productivity growth would average 1.45 percentage points per year during the same period.