Country Economic Memorandum

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From Swimming in Sand to High and Sustainable Growth: A Roadmap to Reduce Distortions in the Allocation of Resources and Talent in the Pakistani Economy
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank Group
This report focuses on growth in Pakistan, and on key aspects of its proximate determinants: productivity, capital, and talent accumulation. Productivity is crucial in accounting for differences in standards of living across countries and time. In addition, and particularly at the level of development of Pakistan, factor accumulation, investment, and human capital, also matters. Specific and policy relevant questions around these broad themes are this report's center of attention. The underlying framework of analysis and orientation of public policy recommendations is what is known as the 'ABC' of growth. This 'ABC' implies improving allocative efficiency of resources and talent, encouraging business-to-business connections and spillovers, and strengthening firms' capabilities. Public policies oriented to create an enabling environment around these three pillars will be powerful in boosting sustainable growth. However, the efficient allocation of talent and resources, and the business-to business interactions leading to spillovers and the conditions to upgrade capabilities, are limited by economic distortions (or market failures) that inhibit the growth process, sometimes making it as difficult as swimming in sand.
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Boosting Foreign Direct Investment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11) World Bank
Foreign direct investment (FDI) can bring many benefits to Kosovo’s economy, creating more and better jobs and spurring greater and more resilient economic growth. Many transition economies have used FDI as a pillar of their structural transformation and modernization efforts. The small number of firms in Kosovo that include FDI are more productive than other firms, and they were more resilient in the wake of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) economic recession. In Kosovo, FDI inflows have been concentrated in sectors that provide limited potential for productivity spillovers and benefits to the domestic economy. Kosovo needs to adopt proactive policies to strengthen its investment competitiveness and investor outreach in order to unlock more and higher-quality FDI. This note presents an ambitious reform agenda that can help improve Kosovo’s investment competitiveness and investor outreach. It presents a step-by-step reform program for unlocking the full potential of FDI for economic growth and job creation in Kosovo that the government can implement in the short to medium term. The note is structured in three sections. The first section looks at Kosovo’s FDI performance and assesses the quantity and quality of the FDI attracted so far. The second section benchmarks Kosovo’s locational FDI determinants, considering a set of macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators for its overall FDI competitiveness. The third section combines the findings from the first two sections with an in-depth assessment of Kosovo’s policy, legal, and institutional framework for investment to present a targeted reform agenda and policy action plan to help attract more and higher-quality investments to Kosovo.
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Gearing Up for a More Productive Future
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11) World Bank
Kosovo, one of the youngest countries in an aging Europe, took its first steps on the road to greater prosperity a quarter of a century ago. Kosovo’s economy has experienced significant growth in recent years. The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered Kosovo’s first ever recession in 2020. While spending on education has more than doubled, the quality of human capital needs to improve. And barriers to women’s economic empowerment need to be lifted. Proximity to major markets in Europe and a youthful population provide an opportunity for growth. Kosovo is one of the youngest countries in an aging Europe. Trade facilitation and logistics connectivity are getting better. Proximity to a large and affluent market, low taxes and labor costs, a resilient and liquid financial sector, and strong ties with its diaspora will help support growth.
Mauritius - Through the Eye of a Perfect Storm: Coming Back Stronger from the COVID Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-30) World Bank
On July 1, 2020, Mauritius officially joined the ranks of High-Income Countries (HIC). It is a cruel historical irony that Mauritius reached the High-Income milestone during one of the worst years in its history. Mauritius delivered a highly successful health response to the global Covid-19 pandemic through a hard lockdown and subsequent quarantine measures, and as a result has effectively been ‘Covid-free’ from April 2020 to March 2021, when a second outbreak occurred. With a total of 1246 cases and 17 deaths, Mauritius has so far been able to avoid the large-scale health crisis observed in many other countries. However, Covid-19 has caused severe economic disruptions in Mauritius. An oil spill in August and Mauritius’ inclusion in the EU list of High Risk Third Countries for Money Laundering in October 2020 added further pressure. While the events of 2020 require dedicated responses in the short term, addressing the underlying challenges cannot be postponed if Mauritius is to make a strong recovery. The best strategy for a solid recovery lies in a combination of temporary support to firms and households affected by the shock with a comprehensive reform program to address pre-existing structural challenges. It is unlikely that a strategy of simply addressing the short-term effects by supporting ailing firms while waiting for global conditions to improve would suffice to put Mauritius’ economic and social development back on track. On the other hand, the crisis affords policy makers with the opportunity to confront long-festering challenges.
Serbia’s New Growth Agenda: State Aid
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03-26) Vasiljevic, Dusko; Schiffbauer, Marc; Shimbov, Bojan; Tan, Shawn
Serbia spends relatively large amounts on state aid programs, many of which will have to be phased out or restructured to comply with EU laws. There is room to restructure the existing programs to target activities that have more growth and job dividends; for example, by targeting startups and innovating firms and phasing out support for ailing industries, state-owned enterprises, and large or old private domestic firms. Although Serbia’s program to attract foreign direct investment has helped create new jobs, the focus should now shift to instruments that facilitate technology spillovers and domestic linkages. Finally, improving the scope and quality of data collection will contribute to better monitoring and more efficient targeting. The sooner Serbia starts to adjust its state aid programs, the larger the economic and fiscal benefits will be.
Serbia’s New Growth Agenda: FDI Spillovers
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11-28) Brussevich, Mariya; Tan, Shawn W.
This note examines the relationship between the presence of foreign firms and total factor productivity (TFP) growth of domestic firms (called ‘FDI, Foreign Direct Investment, spillovers’) in Serbia over the period of 2005-16. The analysis finds evidence of FDI spillovers in Serbia. Domestic firms on average enjoy higher productivity because of the presence of FDI firms in the economy. Moreover, domestic firms that supply to FDI firms or are located in the same industry as FDI firms, enjoy higher productivity. This presumably stems from technology transfer, higher quality standards, or higher competition. However, productivity of domestic firms sourcing from industries with a large share of FDI firms find their productivity reduced, likely due to markups by foreign firms. The effect of FDI on productivity of domestic firms also varies by firm size and industry. Small firms benefit more from spillovers associated with backward linkages (when they supply to an FDI firm) but are worse off with more horizontal FDI (when they compete with FDI firms in the same industry). Firms in high-tech industries benefit more from horizontal and backward FDI spillovers, but firms in low-tech industries experience no effect. Lastly, firms in the transport manufacturing industry do not enjoy any FDI spillover from foreign firms in their industry.
Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 6: Stock Take on Business Environment Reform in São Tomé and Príncipe
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26) Uriz, Zenaida
The importance of a good regulatory and institutional environment for business creation and growth is well established. Good regulations and a level playing field are particularly important to maximize opportunities for private investment in small island states like São Tomé and Príncipe, which tends to be constrained by the lack of economies of scale and distance to markets. Burdensome regulations can hamper the competitiveness of export-oriented sectors, which are essential for São Tomé and Príncipe’s sustainable growth and job creation. Moreover, sectors that depend on natural or cultural assets, such as tourism, require good quality regulations and planning to protect those assets. Improving the regulatory environment is an important factor, together with better skills, connectivity, and infrastructure, to strengthen the competitiveness of São Tomé and Príncipe’s economy. Accurate data on the size and composition of the private sector in Sao Tome and Príncipe is lacking, but existing information shows that it is dominated by microenterprises in commerce and services. The ongoing enterprise survey will provide insights on the characteristics and main challenges of São Tomé and Príncipe’s firms, while an updated business census, which is planned with support from the World Bank, will give a broader view of the private sector. Data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) shows that there are only 14 companies with more than 100 employees, including the utilities and transport sector SOEs, and 80 percent of firms for which data is available have less than five employees. Most firms are concentrated in the commerce, construction, and tourism sectors. While additional analysis will be necessary to identify the factors contributing to the small size and sophistication of SãoTomé and Príncipe’s firms, the regulatory environment may be among them as it affects entry and operating costs, access to finance, and ability to resolve commercial disputes.
Firm Productivity and Economic Growth in Turkey
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-29) World Bank
Turkey’s pace of income convergence has globally been one of the most remarkable of the past fifteen years. Sustaining growth and improvements in living standards in Turkey will require higher productivity in the economy. The Turkey Productivity Report (2019) provides an in-depth analysis of firm productivity in Turkey and how this adds up to economic growth in the country. The report has six parts. The first two provide macro and micro diagnosis of productivity in the economy – what are the productivity trends, how have these affected economic growth, what firms in what industry are the most productive, and are they absorbing an increasing or decreasing share of resources? From here the report analyzes specific policy areas that might explain firm productivity dynamics in Turkey – namely firms’ integration in the global economy, access to innovation support, the quality of human capital, and the business environment including competition. The report finds that economic integration and innovation have boosted firm-level productivity, though reforms could further accelerate these positive impacts. Productivity gains could accelerate the demand for more educated and skilled workers. The growth of more productive firms could in turn also be accelerated through reforms that increase competition and reduce regulatory burden.
Moldova: Rekindling Economic Dynamism
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04) World Bank Group
This current Country Economic Memorandum is intended to provide a comprehensive analysis of growthconstraints and recommendations. While it updates some aspects of these earlier studies, its main focus is on enterprise performance. Insofar as enterprise performance occurs in a larger institutional context, this focus necessarily touches on several of the earlier themes, particularly the rule of law, business regulation, and education. The first chapter presents a diagnostic that highlights the problem of falling productivity in the enterprise sector and points to elements of market structure (particularly state ownership) that undermine productivity growth and curtail the growth of the private sector. This chapter also focuses on demand-side issues in export markets, and highlights policy lessons from sectors with high productivity that could drive future growth. A second chapter focuses on foreign firms, which are high productivity enterprises within Moldova, and looks at investment promotion and ways to improve the contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the economy. Subsequent chapters extend the analysis to incentives shaping enterprise performance and opportunities for growth led by the private sector, particularly: competition and regulatory policies (Chapter 3); tax policy insofar as it affects incentives and tax buoyancy that underpin macroeconomic stability (Chapter 4); and finally, education as a crucial input into enterprise development (Chapter 5).
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12) World Bank
After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.