Country Economic Memorandum

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Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start

(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12) World Bank

After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.
Georgia : Seizing the Opportunity to Prosper

(Washington, DC, 2014-12) World Bank

Georgia: Seizing the Opportunity to Prosper suggests a path towards sustainable and shared growth. Georgia s story is associated with three stylized facts: high growth with persistent unemployment currently at nearly 15 percent after 10 years of annual growth that averaged above 5.5 percent; a doing business rank of 8 out of 189 countries achieved without recovery to 1990 levels of per capita income suggesting a relatively difficult transition experience in spite of noteworthy success with several governance and business environment reforms; and obstinate socio-economic vulnerabilities reflected in Georgia s status as one of the poorest countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region of the World Bank with a relatively weak performance on reducing poverty and inequality. Georgia is well positioned to achieve its development objectives. The main challenge is persistent joblessness, which must be addressed to establish a sustainable basis for the pro-poor development model outlined in the Government s Socio-Economic Strategy 2020. This report, which is anchored in the Government s Socio-economic Development Strategy 2020, explores the potential for improved export competitiveness to strengthen employment growth in Georgia and is intended to inform a policy agenda mainly focused on the demand side of the labor market.
Reviving Romania's Growth and Convergence Challenges and Opportunities : A Country Economic Memorandum

(Washington, DC, 2013-06-21) World Bank

This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) sets a framework for a dialogue on inclusive economic growth and income convergence in Romania. Generous Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and other financial inflows lifted consumer demand, built up key industries, modernized wholesale trade and unleashed the movement of labor from low-productivity activities like agriculture towards high-productivity activities like manufacturing. Public and private investments in education lifted tertiary education enrollment from 12 to 23 percent. Preliminary calculations suggest that this growth was shared even after the crisis, as the income of the bottom 40 percent of the population grew by 5.5 percent on average during the 2000-2011 periods, a pace slightly above the 4.8 percent growth in the income of all households and the 4.1 percent average growth. Achievements notwithstanding, there is little room for complacency. The report discusses the immediate constraints to economic growth in areas where the short-term pay-off is high rather than covering all potential sources of growth for Romania. Although these are only the initial steps to reignite growth, the challenges of addressing each of these constraints should not be underestimated. Tackling them effectively demands a strong strategic vision, meticulous planning, and policy coordination. A significant amount of strategic communication of the benefits of the outlined reforms for the country will also be required since the roadblock to shaping and implementing these policies is likely to be vested interests, institutional inertia and lack of political consensus. In short, the crisis revealed the weakness of Romania's past growth model: it was based to a large extent on consumption and short-term capital inflows rather than on sustained productivity increases in tradable sectors and it concealed significant inefficiencies in the public sector.
Beyond Oil : Kazakhstan's Path to Greater Prosperity through Diversifying, Volume 2. Main Report

(Washington, DC, 2013-06) World Bank

Kazakhstan aspires to become one of the world s 30 most developed economies by 2050. The focus is on laying the basis for the accelerated diversification of the economy through industrialization and infrastructure development, including enhancing human capital to drive innovation and economic efficiency. This country economic memorandum report adopts an analytical framework that looks into options that will be explored to help authorities think about diversification across three sectors: diversification of products and services; diversification of economic partners; and diversification of endowments. Five chapters structure this report, outlining the weaknesses and strengths of the Kazakh economy that will need to be addressed for increased prosperity. Chapter 1 discusses Kazakhstan s natural resources and how important it is to focus on the policies that matter for development and diversification. Chapter 2 focuses on export concentration and assesses whether resource dependence leads to macroeconomic volatility, whether Kazakhstan has been able to avoid volatility, and what macro-policy solutions are available to Kazakhstan. Chapter 3 looks at the structure of employment in the country and assesses whether Kazakh workers have the skills demanded by the market. Chapter 4 analyzes the regulatory environment and how well market institutions have developed to strengthen the quality of institutions. Chapter 5 uses the product space analysis to assess where Kazakhstan s comparative advantages are. It then discusses whether the country has faced excessive trade barriers, whether there is a role for industrial policy, and what will be done in the short term to help diversification.
Beyond Oil : Kazakhstan's Path to Greater Prosperity through Diversifying, Volume 1. Overview

(Washington, DC, 2013-06) World Bank

Kazakhstan aspires to become one of the world s 30 most developed economies by 2050. The focus is on laying the basis for the accelerated diversification of the economy through industrialization and infrastructure development, including enhancing human capital to drive innovation and economic efficiency. This country economic memorandum report adopts an analytical framework that looks into options that will be explored to help authorities think about diversification across three sectors: diversification of products and services; diversification of economic partners; and diversification of endowments. Five chapters structure this report, outlining the weaknesses and strengths of the Kazakh economy that will need to be addressed for increased prosperity. Chapter 1 discusses Kazakhstan s natural resources and how important it is to focus on the policies that matter for development and diversification. Chapter 2 focuses on export concentration and assesses whether resource dependence leads to macroeconomic volatility, whether Kazakhstan has been able to avoid volatility, and what macro-policy solutions are available to Kazakhstan. Chapter 3 looks at the structure of employment in the country and assesses whether Kazakh workers have the skills demanded by the market. Chapter 4 analyzes the regulatory environment and how well market institutions have developed to strengthen the quality of institutions. Chapter 5 uses the product space analysis to assess where Kazakhstan s comparative advantages are. It then discusses whether the country has faced excessive trade barriers, whether there is a role for industrial policy, and what will be done in the short term to help diversification.
Republic of Armenia : Accumulation, Competition, and Connectivity

(Washington, DC, 2013-04) World Bank

By 2013, the Armenian economy has left behind most of the hangover from the global financial crisis and a look at medium-to long-term growth drivers is therefore in order. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 7.2 percent in 2012, and the current account deficit narrowed, although it remained high. Macroeconomic buffers have been rebuilt to some extent, although the public debt-to-GDP ratio, at 44 percent, remains too high to relax fiscal restraints. The central tenet of this report is that the government's job creation agenda requires a different growth model than the one followed before the global crisis. Reaching the goals of the government's strategy will require a combination of four factors: 1) higher investment and better financial intermediation between savers and investors; 2) better utilization of the labor force, including the largely untapped resource of Armenians abroad; 3) stronger competitive pressures in the markets for goods and services, which will improve incentives for companies to innovate, adopt new technologies, and become more efficient; and 4) enhanced connections of the landlocked Armenian economy with world markets, including through land, air, and through internet and communication technologies. This report's theoretical framework emphasizes structural reforms to drive growth. Economic growth theory distinguishes between accumulation of the factors of production and enhancing the productivity with which these factors are employed.
Bangladesh - Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth : Opportunities and Challenges, Volume 1. Overview

(Washington, DC, 2012-09) World Bank

In Bangladesh, growth needs to accelerate to absorb the burgeoning labor force and continue making dents in poverty. Such acceleration will require sustained growth in exports and remittances. It will also need an increase in investment both public and private. However, growth acceleration alone will not be enough to absorb the labor force. This will need an improvement in employment intensity of growth, and a further improvement in inclusiveness of service delivery. Moreover, to help ensure that growth acceleration is sustained, the ex-ante and ex-post effects of climate change will need to be addressed. Finally, urbanization offers opportunities to accelerate growth, but can also undermine it if not proactively managed. Bangladesh's Gross National Income (GNI) per capita more than tripled in the past two-and-a-half decades, from an average of US$251 in the 1980s to US$784 by 2011. This growth was accompanied by impressive progress in human development. Yet, after 40 years of independence, Bangladesh remains a low-income country with nearly 50 million people still impoverished and its economic growth potential under-exploited. It is therefore important to understand the drivers underpinning Bangladesh's growth process, what enabled the drivers to move Bangladesh forward, what its prospects are for graduating to middle-income country status by 2021, as envisaged in its sixth five-year plan, and what it would take to accelerate growth sufficiently to achieve this objective.
Belarus Country Economic Memorandum : Eeconomic Transformation for Growth

(Washington, DC, 2012-04-05) World Bank

The last decade in Belarus was marked by an average economic growth rate of close to 8 percent annually and an impressive eight-fold reduction in poverty. Economic growth was initially driven by external factors, but after 2005 expansionary domestic demand became the prevalent contributor to growth. Growth was backed by large state support to the economy, sizeable public investments, and huge expansion of credit, particularly under government directed lending programs. Simultaneously, the external balance shifted from a surplus of 1.4 percent of growth development product (GDP) in 2005 to a deficit of 15.0 percent of GDP in 2010. Throughout the period 2001-10, the economic model relied on underpriced energy resources from Russia, with an annual average size of the imputed subsidy of over 13 percent of GDP. However, the existing growth model has reached its limits and cannot ensure growth sustainability without structural reforms. Going forward, the growth model will have to rely on significant productivity gains driven by structural reforms in an environment of macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic adjustment which effectively combats the sources of external imbalances in Belarus is a critical and necessary, but insufficient condition for achieving sustainable economic growth in the medium term. The Belarusian economy is facing formidable challenges beyond the macroeconomic issue of adequately financing its external imbalances: (1) how to reallocate labor and capital to high productivity segments of the economy; (2) how to restructure the state-owned enterprise sector; and (3) how to support the underdeveloped private sector and the services sector. By successfully overcoming these challenges, Belarus will revive its competitive segments of the economy and discover untapped opportunities for growth. It will also diminish its economic dependence on underpriced energy from Russia and move up the value chain in global integration. With valuable geographical location and an educated and disciplined labor force, Belarus can restructure its economy, diversify its exports, and increase the prosperity of its people.
Burkina Faso - Promoting Growth, Competitiveness and Diversification : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Report

(Washington, DC, 2010-09) World Bank

The main conclusion of Country Economic Memorandum is that the previous model of extensive growth has now exhausted its potential and must be renewed. Given the existing population dynamics, low environmental tolerance due to its Sahelian climate and competition forces imposed due to its open economy, Burkina Faso is heavily investing in growth based on increased productivity to overcome its low level of initial human capital, capacity constraints and regulation. To help define the new model of development of Burkina Faso, the Country Economic Memorandum is exploring growth based on productivity both at macro-, meso-economic or sectoral, micro and institutional levels only. It also assesses the sustainability of growth in the human, demographic, financial, fiscal and physical infrastructure. Wherever possible, it evaluates the performance of previous development programs and provides diagnostics on problems. It analyzes the current situation in terms of challenges and opportunities. Several major constraints on growth have been identified and the Memorandum offers practical ways to reduce or mitigate them. These constraints are: i. The frequency of exogenous shocks on agriculture in Burkina Faso, especially cotton, significantly slows the socio-economic development; ii. The real appreciation of the exchange rate has eroded the price competitiveness; iii. The country's attractiveness to foreign direct investment, despite significant progress in the business environment, limited growth potential; iv. The high fertility rates impede growth per capita and social development beginning with human capital; v. Environmental constraints limit the extensive growth of agriculture, while food security is always a challenge for human development; vi. The vulnerability of poor households prevents them from truly engaging in productive economic activities; vii. Constraints on institutional and human capacities reduce the effectiveness of public policies. The first volume of the Memorandum emphasizes the need for Burkina Faso to consider the macroeconomic and microeconomic constraints to growth and competitiveness, draws attention to the low sophistication of its exports and suggests policy instruments to facilitate the promotion of export and investment led by the private sector. The second volume emphasizes (i) the need for appropriate choices to ensure the viability of the cotton sector, (ii) the development of supply chains to achieve food security, growth and import substitution, (iii) the important role in the mining sector for growth, with good revenue management, and finally (iv) the potential of tourism as an industry will depend on the service quality improvements and the accommodation capacity and infrastructure. The third volume identifies the actions necessary to (i) address the issues of demographic change through better information, education and communication campaigns to bring about behavioral changes, (ii) develop instruments of risk management to manage the risks of economic, social, health, natural and food security, (iii) improve the country's access to regional and international markets, better connections to regional transport infrastructure, electricity, and telecommunications, water services and improved irrigation systems, (iv) exploiting the financial intermediation by new mechanisms of access to credit, reform the financial sector and institutional capacity building in financial management and risk in the business sector, and (v) create and use the budget by prioritizing expenditures, ensuring the collection of revenue and increasing the flow of aid.
Burkina Faso - Promoting Growth, Competitiveness and Diversification : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2. Sources of Growth - Key Sectors for Tomorrow

(Washington, DC, 2010-09) World Bank

The main conclusion of Country Economic Memorandum is that the previous model of extensive growth has now exhausted its potential and must be renewed. Given the existing population dynamics, low environmental tolerance due to its Sahelian climate and competition forces imposed due to its open economy, Burkina Faso is heavily investing in growth based on increased productivity to overcome its low level of initial human capital, capacity constraints and regulation. To help define the new model of development of Burkina Faso, the Country Economic Memorandum is exploring growth based on productivity both at macro-, meso-economic or sectoral, micro and institutional levels only. It also assesses the sustainability of growth in the human, demographic, financial, fiscal and physical infrastructure. Wherever possible, it evaluates the performance of previous development programs and provides diagnostics on problems. It analyzes the current situation in terms of challenges and opportunities. Several major constraints on growth have been identified and the Memorandum offers practical ways to reduce or mitigate them. These constraints are: i. The frequency of exogenous shocks on agriculture in Burkina Faso, especially cotton, significantly slows the socio-economic development; ii. The real appreciation of the exchange rate has eroded the price competitiveness; iii. The country's attractiveness to foreign direct investment, despite significant progress in the business environment, limited growth potential; iv. The high fertility rates impede growth per capita and social development beginning with human capital; v. Environmental constraints limit the extensive growth of agriculture, while food security is always a challenge for human development; vi. The vulnerability of poor households prevents them from truly engaging in productive economic activities; vii. Constraints on institutional and human capacities reduce the effectiveness of public policies. The first volume of the Memorandum emphasizes the need for Burkina Faso to consider the macroeconomic and microeconomic constraints to growth and competitiveness, draws attention to the low sophistication of its exports and suggests policy instruments to facilitate the promotion of export and investment led by the private sector. The second volume emphasizes (i) the need for appropriate choices to ensure the viability of the cotton sector, (ii) the development of supply chains to achieve food security, growth and import substitution, (iii) the important role in the mining sector for growth, with good revenue management, and finally (iv) the potential of tourism as an industry will depend on the service quality improvements and the accommodation capacity and infrastructure. The third volume identifies the actions necessary to (i) address the issues of demographic change through better information, education and communication campaigns to bring about behavioral changes, (ii) develop instruments of risk management to manage the risks of economic, social, health, natural and food security, (iii) improve the country's access to regional and international markets, better connections to regional transport infrastructure, electricity, and telecommunications, water services and improved irrigation systems, (iv) exploiting the financial intermediation by new mechanisms of access to credit, reform the financial sector and institutional capacity building in financial management and risk in the business sector, and (v) create and use the budget by prioritizing expenditures, ensuring the collection of revenue and increasing the flow of aid.