Country Economic Memorandum

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Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Volume 2. Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues
(Washington, DC, 2008-04) World Bank
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth, it has been recovering from crisis in 2001 and grew at 7.5 percent per year on average during 2002-2006. In addition, certain dimensions of public sector governance are instrumental in improving quality of life and promoting competitiveness in Turkey including, for example, food safety and environmental protection. Further strengthening of the legal framework and institutions fighting corruption could improve the investment climate, the efficiency of the public sector, and popular support to further reforms, and continuous macroeconomic stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for sustainable growth. Strong fiscal discipline and monetary policy have reduced chronic inflation to below 10 percent in 2005. Public debt has also been reduced and its sustainability has improved. Accordingly, the resilience of the Turkish economy to shocks has improved as demonstrated by the rapid recovery from turmoil in international markets in the summer of 2006 and, more recently, in the summer-autumn of 2007.
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2008-04) World Bank
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth, it has been recovering from crisis in 2001 and grew at 7.5 percent per year on average during 2002-2006. In addition, certain dimensions of public sector governance are instrumental in improving quality of life and promoting competitiveness in Turkey including, for example, food safety and environmental protection. Further strengthening of the legal framework and institutions fighting corruption could improve the investment climate, the efficiency of the public sector, and popular support to further reforms, and continuous macroeconomic stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for sustainable growth. Strong fiscal discipline and monetary policy have reduced chronic inflation to below 10 percent in 2005. Public debt has also been reduced and its sustainability has improved. Accordingly, the resilience of the Turkish economy to shocks has improved as demonstrated by the rapid recovery from turmoil in international markets in the summer of 2006 and, more recently, in the summer-autumn of 2007.
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Towards Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth, Volume 1. Summary Report
(Washington, DC, 2003-07-28) World Bank
This report addresses key questions facing Turkish policymakers: how to sustain the economic recovery that began in 2002 following the deep crisis of 2001, how to ensure disinflation and public debt sustainability, and how to foster broad-based and equitably distributed growth in the future. After a brief review of the 2001 crisis and the Government response, the report analyzes the economic opportunities and challenges facing Turkey, and identifies policies to build on the economic recovery which began in 2002. The CEM develops a comprehensive four-point agenda for sustainable and more equitably distributed growth. The agenda encompasses: (i) macroeconomic stability, (ii) effective government, (iii) improved business environment, and (iv) stronger social policies. The report closes with medium-term macroeconomic projections to illustrate Turkey's prospects under a scenario of sustained reform and to highlight the risks to growth and macroeconomic stability should the economic program go off track.
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Towards Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth, Volume 3. Statistical Annex
(Washington, DC, 2003-07-28) World Bank
This report addresses key questions facing Turkish policymakers: how to sustain the economic recovery that began in 2002 following the deep crisis of 2001, how to ensure disinflation and public debt sustainability, and how to foster broad-based and equitably distributed growth in the future. After a brief review of the 2001 crisis and the Government response, the report analyzes the economic opportunities and challenges facing Turkey, and identifies policies to build on the economic recovery which began in 2002. The CEM develops a comprehensive four-point agenda for sustainable and more equitably distributed growth. The agenda encompasses: (i) macroeconomic stability, (ii) effective government, (iii) improved business environment, and (iv) stronger social policies. The report closes with medium-term macroeconomic projections to illustrate Turkey's prospects under a scenario of sustained reform and to highlight the risks to growth and macroeconomic stability should the economic program go off track.
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Towards Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth, Volume 2. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2003-07-28) World Bank
This report addresses key questions facing Turkish policymakers: how to sustain the economic recovery that began in 2002 following the deep crisis of 2001, how to ensure disinflation and public debt sustainability, and how to foster broad-based and equitably distributed growth in the future. After a brief review of the 2001 crisis and the Government response, the report analyzes the economic opportunities and challenges facing Turkey, and identifies policies to build on the economic recovery which began in 2002. The CEM develops a comprehensive four-point agenda for sustainable and more equitably distributed growth. The agenda encompasses: (i) macroeconomic stability, (ii) effective government, (iii) improved business environment, and (iv) stronger social policies. The report closes with medium-term macroeconomic projections to illustrate Turkey's prospects under a scenario of sustained reform and to highlight the risks to growth and macroeconomic stability should the economic program go off track.
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Structural Reforms for Sustainable Growth, Volume 2. Statistical Annex
(Washington, DC, 2000-09-15) World Bank
This country economic memorandum shows that fiscal imbalances are key to understanding Turkey's inflation problem, and its volatile growth. Its findings suggest that the country's inability to sustain high growth can be closely linked, among many factors, to the lack of macroeconomic stability. Unsustainable fiscal policy, has put repeated pressure on its currency, and led to chronic, and high inflation. Thus, when facing crises, fiscal policy has been unable to withstand, or influence on the business cycle; instead contractionary policies have been implemented to achieve monetary stability, actually worsening the real impact of shocks. It is also suggested that previous attempts at stabilization, failed precisely because they did not address the structural sources of fiscal deficit. Following an analysis on Turkey's macroeconomic framework, the report reviews the reform agenda on the infrastructure, agriculture, and banking sectors, and the country's medium-term prospects, but emphasizes the influence of the policy environment on total factor productivity growth, as a key explanatory factor, recommending structural policies to generate at least a primary surplus of three percent of GNP, prioritize social security, and social assistance, and avoid unsustainable contingent liabilities, by deregulating energy and telecommunications sectors, and, pursue financial sector reform.
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Structural Reforms for Sustainable Growth, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2000-09-15) World Bank
This country economic memorandum shows that fiscal imbalances are key to understanding Turkey's inflation problem, and its volatile growth. Its findings suggest that the country's inability to sustain high growth can be closely linked, among many factors, to the lack of macroeconomic stability. Unsustainable fiscal policy, has put repeated pressure on its currency, and led to chronic, and high inflation. Thus, when facing crises, fiscal policy has been unable to withstand, or influence on the business cycle; instead contractionary policies have been implemented to achieve monetary stability, actually worsening the real impact of shocks. It is also suggested that previous attempts at stabilization, failed precisely because they did not address the structural sources of fiscal deficit. Following an analysis on Turkey's macroeconomic framework, the report reviews the reform agenda on the infrastructure, agriculture, and banking sectors, and the country's medium-term prospects, but emphasizes the influence of the policy environment on total factor productivity growth, as a key explanatory factor, recommending structural policies to generate at least a primary surplus of three percent of GNP, prioritize social security, and social assistance, and avoid unsustainable contingent liabilities, by deregulating energy and telecommunications sectors, and, pursue financial sector reform.