Country Economic Memorandum
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa, home to more than 1 billion people, half of whom will be under 25 years old by 2050, is a diverse ...
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Publication
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved. -
Publication
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start, Summary
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved. -
Publication
Niger - Accelerating Growth and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : Diagnosis and the Policy Agenda
(Washington, DC, 2007-09)This report has the following objectives: (i) identify the underlying constraints to strong and sustained growth, in particular, the dynamic circles that lock Niger in a low-growth/high poverty equilibrium; (ii) understand the key determinants of growth and poverty traps and the role increased foreign aid could play to promote growth and help achieve the MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs); and (iii) help the Government of Niger design a strategy to accelerating growth and human development: Strategy Paper for Human Development (SPAHD). This report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 describes the main features of Niger's economy from a Social Accounting Matrix perspective. It aims to analyze the potential linkages between sectors and the impact a policy shock of an increased public investment could have on Niger's economy. Chapter 2 reviews Niger's growth performance over the past three decades. It draws some policy lessons critical to the design of a growth strategy for Niger. Chapter 3 provides a snapshot of where Niger stands in achieving the MDGs with less than a decade remaining. It examines the reasons why Niger is falling short of the goals, describes the recent progress, and highlights the challenges ahead. Chapter 4 analyzes the constraints to strong and sustained growth with particular focus on poverty traps. Chapter 5 discusses the macro and micro foundations for strong growth and achieving the MDGs. It examines the post stabilization macroeconomic policy required to enhance the macroeconomic foundations of growth. It also identifies the engines of growth and highlights the cross-cutting issues for improving the business environment. In addition, the chapter discusses the role the private sector can play in Niger's quest to achieve the MDGs. Chapter 6 analyzes the potential impact that increased foreign aid would have on growth, poverty, and other MDGs using Niger's macroeconomic model. It focuses mainly on the links between foreign aid, the level and composition of public investment - which is disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health -- the supply-side effects of public capital, growth, poverty, and other MDGs. Furthermore, it discusses the impact of three policy experiments on growth and the MDGs, including an increase in foreign aid (namely grants), debt relief, and a combined increase in foreign aid and tax reforms. Finally, it highlights the importance of improving governance to maximize the impact of domestic reforms and increased foreign aid on growth and the MDGs. Chapter 7 concludes the report and draws up policy recommendations, highlighting the policy priorities needed to accelerate growth and achieve the MDGs. -
Publication
Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2004-10-20)In October 1991 Zambia moved to a multiparty democratic system. In the following years, the government implemented a number of policy and structural reforms, liberalizing exchange and interest rates, simplifying the tariff structure, and removing quantitative restrictions on trade, privatizing most state-owned enterprises, and substantially withdrawing from the agriculture sector. Despite these reforms, economic growth has remained lackluster, and poverty and social conditions have worsened. There are however, hopeful signs that increased growth and poverty reduction are within reach in Zambia. The country's economy has long been tied to the copper industry, whose purchasing power has been in decline for decades. But declining copper prices were not the only reasons Zambia's economic performance declined between 1991 and 2002. Excluding the one-time disruption in real sector activity in 1994-95, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3 percent during 1991-2002. The report argues that estimates puts its annual long-term growth potential at about 5 percent, implying per capita income growth of 2.5-3.0 percent a year, and, the reason why its potential is not being achieved, lies in several key problems, namely macroeconomic mismanagement, lack of ownership of reform and poor policy implementation, a weak investment climate, lack of good governance, and, the HIV/AIDS pandemic. And further asserts that central to the lack of macroeconomic stability - in particular to the high inflation and real interest rate - is the lack of fiscal control and commitment to fiscal discipline. Zambia's large external and rising domestic debt, combined with budgetary dependence on external financing, has constrained the government's ability to exert monetary control to achieve macroeconomic stability. The financial sector must become more efficient and capable of supporting private investment and growth. Key institutional and policy issues for immediate attention are creating a mechanism to resolve the debt of failed banks and state-owned non-bank financial institutions; upgrading the human and technological resources of financial system regulators and supervisors; improving access to financial services, in particular rural financial services; and, investing in financial system infrastructure to improve market data, and accounting and auditing standards. The report expands on the country's opportunities in the mining sector, particularly copper, but also on its rich reserves of gemstone minerals, as an opportunity for export diversification; in the manufacturing sector, specifically textiles, garments, and processed foods; and, in tourism development. -
Publication
Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 2. Annexes
(Washington, DC, 2004-10-20)In October 1991 Zambia moved to a multiparty democratic system. In the following years, the government implemented a number of policy and structural reforms, liberalizing exchange and interest rates, simplifying the tariff structure, and removing quantitative restrictions on trade, privatizing most state-owned enterprises, and substantially withdrawing from the agriculture sector. Despite these reforms, economic growth has remained lackluster, and poverty and social conditions have worsened. There are however, hopeful signs that increased growth and poverty reduction are within reach in Zambia. The country's economy has long been tied to the copper industry, whose purchasing power has been in decline for decades. But declining copper prices were not the only reasons Zambia's economic performance declined between 1991 and 2002. Excluding the one-time disruption in real sector activity in 1994-95, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3 percent during 1991-2002. The report argues that estimates puts its annual long-term growth potential at about 5 percent, implying per capita income growth of 2.5-3.0 percent a year, and, the reason why its potential is not being achieved, lies in several key problems, namely macroeconomic mismanagement, lack of ownership of reform and poor policy implementation, a weak investment climate, lack of good governance, and, the HIV/AIDS pandemic. And further asserts that central to the lack of macroeconomic stability - in particular to the high inflation and real interest rate - is the lack of fiscal control and commitment to fiscal discipline. Zambia's large external and rising domestic debt, combined with budgetary dependence on external financing, has constrained the government's ability to exert monetary control to achieve macroeconomic stability. The financial sector must become more efficient and capable of supporting private investment and growth. Key institutional and policy issues for immediate attention are creating a mechanism to resolve the debt of failed banks and state-owned non-bank financial institutions; upgrading the human and technological resources of financial system regulators and supervisors; improving access to financial services, in particular rural financial services; and, investing in financial system infrastructure to improve market data, and accounting and auditing standards. The report expands on the country's opportunities in the mining sector, particularly copper, but also on its rich reserves of gemstone minerals, as an opportunity for export diversification; in the manufacturing sector, specifically textiles, garments, and processed foods; and, in tourism development. -
Publication
Malawi - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Accelerating Growth
(Washington, DC, 2004-06)The report reviews the economic developments in 2003-04, and discusses the main reforms implemented by the government as of March 2003. Since early 2003, the government continued to implement both macro, and structural reforms designed to generate sustainable growth. The economic performance over the past year indicates that these efforts have had mixed results. Despite the adoption of a macroeconomic framework, the government repeatedly failed to reach the set fiscal targets. In addition, the government also implemented, and initiated a number of growth oriented, structural reforms designed to, improve parastatal management, restructure the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) and the food markets, improve the tobacco sector, and, alleviate the impact of HIV/AIDS, in line with the development strategy. In spite of achievements since early 2003, much remains to be done, namely in maintaining fiscal discipline, implementing the next phase of the reforms in maize, tobacco, and agriculture services, including forthcoming reforms to improve the business, and trade environment. -
Publication
Kenya : A Policy Agenda to Restore Growth
(Washington, DC, 2003-08-18)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) - the first since 1995 - is a contribution to the government's economic recovery strategy, and to its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), being finalized. It examines Kenya's economic performance during the past decade, and identifies the structural weaknesses that have contributed to the decline in productivity, and the competitiveness of the economy during this period. It also recommends policy, and institutional reforms to revitalize economic growth, and to reduce poverty. The message from the CEM is a sober one: increased poverty is the legacy from almost two decades of slow growth; and, the burden of disease, particularly malaria and HIV/AIDS will constrain growth in the years to come. However, given the improved economic policy environment, the potential for economic growth is significantly better than the poor performance in the 1990s would indicate. But even in our high-case scenario Kenya is unlikely to reach the Millennium Development Goal of cutting in half by 2015 the proportion of Kenyans living in poverty in 1990. Reducing poverty will remain a tremendous challenge. The CEM is organized into six chapters. Chapter 1 reviews recent economic developments, and Kenya's integration with the world economy. Chapter 2 discusses trends in poverty, and focuses on the long term economic factors that affect productivity, and institutional effectiveness. Chapters 3-5 provide detailed analyses of the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors, identifying specific cross-sectoral issues, and, recommending policy, and institutional reforms to promote broad-based economic growth. Finally, chapter 6 discusses the investment climate, and its relationship to private sector investment. -
Publication
Sudan - Stabilization and Reconstruction : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Text
(Washington, DC, 2003-06-30)This Country Economic Memorandum is the first economic report in a decade. It gives priority to updating knowledge about the evolution of social and economic developments during the 1990s. It reviewareas of progress in macroeconomic reforms and the lack of success in governance and institutional reforms. Substantial reforms were undertaken in this period , but the civil war continued to have a serious negative impact on Sudan's people and its economic prospects. While the results of the reforms have been promising, particularly in the area of macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization, the distribution of economic wealth needs to improve. Although there has not been any national household survey since 1978, social indicators point to low levels of welfare throughout Sudan, with some indicators well below those in Sub-Saharan Africa. among the many issues facing the Sudanese economy are these: There has been high growth but skewed distribution. Stabilization has been costly in social terms: expenditures were cut by more than 50 percent relative to gross domestic product (GDP), causing considerable reductions in social services and infrastructure development. Key services were decentralized, delegated to states and local communities, which had neither the revenues nor the administrative capacity for these tasks. High poverty rates persist. Social inequalities threaten to undermine macroeconomic stability. Moreover, the civil war was costly in terms of human suffering. Millions are internally displaced, there are almost a million refugees in camps in neighboring countries, the death toll is estimated at 2 million, and warring armies continue to claim substantial resources. However, peace negotiations look encouraging. For peace to be sustained, it must be accompanied by economic and governance reforms, and a formula for equitable sharing of resources and power must be found for resolving the major root causes of decades of civil war. Reconstruction and development needs are enormous and will require external financing. Even after debt rescheduling, additional resources will be needed and the Sudan will urgently be expected to put measures in place to improve public resources management. As for the major sectors, infrastructure needs major rehabilitation and development, agricultural reforms need to be pursued, improved social services are a high priority, and war-affected areas face special difficulties like food insecurity. The needs of women require special attention, particularly in those parts of the country where women suffer severely from the violence and lawlessness that emerged as a result of the prolonged civil war. Many are widows and many have suffered also from rape, insecurity, and other traumas. the average ratio iof adult women to adult men is two to one in war-affected areas in southern Sudan, and only one out of ten women is literate, -
Publication
Mozambique Country Economic Memorandum : Growth Prospects and Reform Agenda
(Washington, DC, 2001-02-07)This Country Economic Memorandum reviews the significant changes Mozambique underwent in the last five years, specifying that to continue its rapid growth, and reduce its high levels of poverty, the country will need to adopt a new set of reforms. Such reforms, focused on increasing the profitability of agriculture, and promoting labor-intensive manufacturing activities, hold the best hope to move poverty into prosperity. Three factors - increased political stability, deep economic reforms, and foreign assistance - contributed to the positive developments. But the country still faces absolute poverty, particularly in rural areas, where infrastructure, and communications are lacking, aggravated by high illiteracy, and low life expectancy rates. Strengthening the macroeconomic environment will require a reform agenda, reducing the fiscal deficit by increasing tax revenues, while improving public spending. Moreover, the country's external position continues to be vulnerable, thus the external balance needs to be strengthened. Therefore, infrastructure recovery, namely roads, would facilitate rural trade, as will alternative mechanisms not based on trade restrictions, to address food security concerns, and promote improvements in productivity. Strategic actions to prod private sector development, and increase flexibility in the labor market should be decisive, to enhance as well education, and health.