Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Boosting Foreign Direct Investment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)Foreign direct investment (FDI) can bring many benefits to Kosovo’s economy, creating more and better jobs and spurring greater and more resilient economic growth. Many transition economies have used FDI as a pillar of their structural transformation and modernization efforts. The small number of firms in Kosovo that include FDI are more productive than other firms, and they were more resilient in the wake of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) economic recession. In Kosovo, FDI inflows have been concentrated in sectors that provide limited potential for productivity spillovers and benefits to the domestic economy. Kosovo needs to adopt proactive policies to strengthen its investment competitiveness and investor outreach in order to unlock more and higher-quality FDI. This note presents an ambitious reform agenda that can help improve Kosovo’s investment competitiveness and investor outreach. It presents a step-by-step reform program for unlocking the full potential of FDI for economic growth and job creation in Kosovo that the government can implement in the short to medium term. The note is structured in three sections. The first section looks at Kosovo’s FDI performance and assesses the quantity and quality of the FDI attracted so far. The second section benchmarks Kosovo’s locational FDI determinants, considering a set of macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators for its overall FDI competitiveness. The third section combines the findings from the first two sections with an in-depth assessment of Kosovo’s policy, legal, and institutional framework for investment to present a targeted reform agenda and policy action plan to help attract more and higher-quality investments to Kosovo. -
Publication
Aiming High: Navigating the Next Stage of Malaysia’s Development
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02-02)Malaysia is likely to make the transition from an upper-middle-income economy to a high-income economy within the next five years, despite thesetback of the COVID-19-induced recession in 2020. This transition represents an important milestone in Malaysia’s development, having transformed living standards in less than a generation, slashing the extreme poverty rate to less than one percent of the population, and ending the country’s long tenure in the “middle-income trap”. However, Malaysia has been severely affected by COVID-19 and it will take several years beforethe scars of the pandemic are fully erased. The country experienced a “triple shock”: the direct health impact of the virus; the economic impact of movement restrictions; and the growth impact of a global recession. With Malaysia on the verge of achieving this transition, it is an opportune time to address a number of questions regarding the speed of Malaysia’s growth, its quality, and its sustainability. Malaysia is growing slower thanmany countries that achieved high-income status in recent decades. In addition, compared to many other countries that have graduated from middle-income status, it has a lower share of employment at high skill levels and higher levels of inequality. And, compared to countries in the OECD, Malaysia collects less in taxes, spends less on social protection, and performs relatively poorly in terms of measures related to environmentalmanagement and the control of corruption. Many of these fault lines have become exposed during the pandemic. Most significantly, there is a growing sense that despite economic growth, the aspirations of Malaysia’s middle-class are not being met and that the economy hasn’t produced enough well-paying, high-quality jobs. There is a widespread sense that the proceeds of growth have not been equitably shared and that increases in the cost-of-living are outstripping incomes, especially in urban areas, where three-fourths of Malaysians reside. Policies and institutions that have worked in the past may no longer be appropriate for the next stage of Malaysia’s development, with a different set of policies and institutions required at higher levels of income and development. The policies that enabled Malaysia to successfully make the transition from low- to middle-income need to be adapted to meet the challenges it will face in the future. At an earlier stage of its development, factor accumulation was a key driver of Malaysia’s growth. As it makes the transition, it will increasingly need to depend upon more knowledge-intensive and productivity-driven growth, closer to the technological frontier and with a greater emphasis on achieving inclusive and sustainable development. As Malaysia positions itself for the next phase of its development and beyond the pandemic, many of the issues related to this transformation are being addressed and discussed, including through the 12th Malaysia Plan and the Shared Prosperity Vision 2030. With the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential to depress growth into the future, issues related to Malaysia’s readiness for the future have become even more significant. The analysis in this report suggests that for Malaysia to fulfil its potential, to transition successfully to high-income and developed country status, and to sustain equitable growth beyond that point, reforms are needed in six broad and inter-linked areas: (i) revitalizing long-term growth; (ii) boosting competitiveness; (iii) creating jobs; (iv) modernizing institutions; (v) promoting inclusion; and (vi) financing shared prosperity. -
Publication
Firm Productivity and Economic Growth in Turkey
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-29)Turkey’s pace of income convergence has globally been one of the most remarkable of the past fifteen years. Sustaining growth and improvements in living standards in Turkey will require higher productivity in the economy. The Turkey Productivity Report (2019) provides an in-depth analysis of firm productivity in Turkey and how this adds up to economic growth in the country. The report has six parts. The first two provide macro and micro diagnosis of productivity in the economy – what are the productivity trends, how have these affected economic growth, what firms in what industry are the most productive, and are they absorbing an increasing or decreasing share of resources? From here the report analyzes specific policy areas that might explain firm productivity dynamics in Turkey – namely firms’ integration in the global economy, access to innovation support, the quality of human capital, and the business environment including competition. The report finds that economic integration and innovation have boosted firm-level productivity, though reforms could further accelerate these positive impacts. Productivity gains could accelerate the demand for more educated and skilled workers. The growth of more productive firms could in turn also be accelerated through reforms that increase competition and reduce regulatory burden. -
Publication
Moldova: Rekindling Economic Dynamism
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04)This current Country Economic Memorandum is intended to provide a comprehensive analysis of growthconstraints and recommendations. While it updates some aspects of these earlier studies, its main focus is on enterprise performance. Insofar as enterprise performance occurs in a larger institutional context, this focus necessarily touches on several of the earlier themes, particularly the rule of law, business regulation, and education. The first chapter presents a diagnostic that highlights the problem of falling productivity in the enterprise sector and points to elements of market structure (particularly state ownership) that undermine productivity growth and curtail the growth of the private sector. This chapter also focuses on demand-side issues in export markets, and highlights policy lessons from sectors with high productivity that could drive future growth. A second chapter focuses on foreign firms, which are high productivity enterprises within Moldova, and looks at investment promotion and ways to improve the contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the economy. Subsequent chapters extend the analysis to incentives shaping enterprise performance and opportunities for growth led by the private sector, particularly: competition and regulatory policies (Chapter 3); tax policy insofar as it affects incentives and tax buoyancy that underpin macroeconomic stability (Chapter 4); and finally, education as a crucial input into enterprise development (Chapter 5). -
Publication
Angola Country Economic Memorandum: Towards Economic Diversification
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-12-01)The Angolan economy is at a significant juncture. The current growth model based on oil wealth is nearly exhausted and has not delivered inclusive growth and shared prosperity. Angola faces two broad policy challenges that need to be addressed urgently: macroeconomic stabilization and a more inclusive economic growth. The internal and external imbalances following the adjustment to lower oil prices pose a challenge to macro-stabilization. The prospect of volatile oil prices and potentially diminishing oil reserves over the medium and long-term call for a new sustainable and inclusive growth model that promotes economic diversification, a model that is less dependent on natural resource exports. The new administration is aware of these challenges and has started to implement much needed reforms. Angola is right to focus on reforms that lay the foundation for long-term macroeconomic stability and economic diversification. Analyses conducted as part of this report indicate that there are significant gains to be had from such reforms. The objective of this report on Angola is to support policy makers in their reform efforts. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 takes stock of recent trends and determinants of growth in Angola, highlighting the importance of natural resource wealth and volatility for growth outcomes. Chapter 2 presents the findings of a growth diagnostic for Angola, and highlights low human capital, access to finance, weak institutions and macroeconomic instability as critical and binding constraints for the non-oil economy. Chapter 3 uses product space analysis to evaluate Angola’s current and future potential for economic and export diversification, drawing attention to products and services sectors in which there is potential for export upgrading and/or product innovation. Chapter 4 provides an overview of the agriculture sector and assesses its potential for economic diversification. Chapter 5 sets out the way forward, identifying: critical reforms for macroeconomic stability; a fiscal framework for natural-resource wealth management; and macro-financial stability. -
Publication
Climbing Higher: Toward a Middle-Income Nepal
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05-01)Nepal's recent history of development is marred by a paradox. Many countries in the world have experienced rapid growth but modest poverty reduction, as income has increasingly concentrated in the hands of the wealthy. Nepal, however, has the opposite problem-modest growth but brisk poverty reduction. The country has halved the poverty rate in just seven years and witnessed an equally significant decline in income inequality. Yet, Nepal remains one of the poorest and slowest-growing economies in Asia, with its per capita income rapidly falling behind its regional peers and unable to achieve its long-standing ambition to graduate from low-income status. -
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Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved. -
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Georgia : Seizing the Opportunity to Prosper
(Washington, DC, 2014-12)Georgia: Seizing the Opportunity to Prosper suggests a path towards sustainable and shared growth. Georgia s story is associated with three stylized facts: high growth with persistent unemployment currently at nearly 15 percent after 10 years of annual growth that averaged above 5.5 percent; a doing business rank of 8 out of 189 countries achieved without recovery to 1990 levels of per capita income suggesting a relatively difficult transition experience in spite of noteworthy success with several governance and business environment reforms; and obstinate socio-economic vulnerabilities reflected in Georgia s status as one of the poorest countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region of the World Bank with a relatively weak performance on reducing poverty and inequality. Georgia is well positioned to achieve its development objectives. The main challenge is persistent joblessness, which must be addressed to establish a sustainable basis for the pro-poor development model outlined in the Government s Socio-Economic Strategy 2020. This report, which is anchored in the Government s Socio-economic Development Strategy 2020, explores the potential for improved export competitiveness to strengthen employment growth in Georgia and is intended to inform a policy agenda mainly focused on the demand side of the labor market. -
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Pakistan : Finding the Path to Job-Enhancing Growth
(Islamabad: World Bank, 2013-08)Pakistan's rebound from the global financial crisis has been slow and fragile, and unless the economy changes course swiftly, it could face its second balance of payments crisis in five years. Its recovery from the 2008-09 global financial crisis has been the weakest in South Asia, with a double dip pattern. This report identifies conditions for a sustainable job-enhancing growth agenda for Pakistan. Policy must target both goals as they are closely intertwined. Higher growth rates can be achieved through productivity improvements (technology, innovation, better economic governance), but also from higher output extracted from factors-physical capital, labor, human capital, and land. This report considers whether Pakistan should pursue historical growth of 4.3 percent a year, supported by piecemeal structural reforms leading to partial and unsatisfactory outcomes-or rapid growth of 7 percent, requiring comprehensive big-bang reforms. The report is organized around three major themes: (i) the stylized facts, what are the pluses and minuses of Pakistan's patterns of growth and job creation? (ii) the diagnostics, what is holding back Pakistan's growth? And (iii) the transformational agenda, what are the core ingredients of job-enhancing growth? And how can analysis of the political economy identify policy tradeoffs? -
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Georgia Rising : Sustaining Rapid Economic Growth
(Washington, DC, 2013-07)Economic growth in Georgia was strong at 6.1 percent per year during 2004-12 as structural reforms and a favorable global economy led to large foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and expansion in the services sectors. However, the current account deficit has remained large and economic expansion has been driven primarily by the nontradable sectors, thus raising concerns about the sustainability of growth. This country economic memorandum (CEM) report shows that sustaining strong growth in Georgia going forward will require new policies that help support both high investment financed increasingly from domestic sources as well as sustained rapid productivity growth in the export and tradable sectors. The report presents an array of policy options to raise national saving, boost firm productivity, better deploy labor resources, and enhance export competitiveness. Raising national saving will require a shift in the fiscal framework to control growth of current expenditures and bolstering private saving through macro-prudential regulations and a package of measures to support saving for retirement. Stimulating firm productivity will require addressing a range of constraints, including streamlining the complexity of closing a business, reducing high borrowing costs, and improving the electricity pricing mechanism. Boosting job creation and more productively deploying labor resources will require upgrading overall education quality, strengthening vocational education systems, and developing job matching services to alleviate skills mismatches and reduce search costs. Enhancing competitiveness of exports will require addressing any overvaluation of the exchange rate, pursuing trade-related reforms to enhance access to European Union and international markets, and upgrading logistics and internal infrastructure.