Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Georgia Country Economic Memorandum: Charting Georgia’s Future
(Washington, DC, 2022-06)From the Coronavirus (COVID) pandemic to the war in Ukraine, the world and Georgia are experiencing more uncertainty and accelerating disruption. As a small open economy looking to integrate with the global economy, Georgia must carefully navigate these trends by being prepared for the risks and on the lookout for emerging opportunities. A more capable, competitive and connected Georgia will be better placed to navigate these trends. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) aims to inform the policies that could offset these headwinds. To sustain productivity growth, Georgia needs to facilitate its structural transformation and the corresponding spatial adjustment (Chapters 1 and 2). Furthermore, growth will increasingly need to come from improvements in total factor productivity (TFP) in Georgia’s firms (Chapter 3) and advancement in their ability to exploit opportunities in external markets (Chapter 4). Finally, more active and better-skilled labor (Chapter 5) can help offset existing demographic trends and augment productivity. Progress in these areas, supported by higher savings, will make Georgia’s economy more competitive, connected, and capable, help sustain robust GDP growth over the long-term and turn Georgia’s aspirations into reality. -
Publication
Leveraging Global Value Chains for growth in Turkey: A Turkey Country Economic Memorandum
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-02)Turkey saw phenomenal growth in the 2000s as economic reforms ushered in FDI, GVCs expanded, and productivity increased. The early 2000s saw Turkey exit from major economic crisis with a strengthened fiscal framework, a strengthened, inflation-targeting mandate for the Central Bank, the establishment of an independent bank regulator, and importantly, a recently agreed Customs Union agreement with the EU. From 2001 to 2017, incomes per capita in Turkey doubled in real terms and tripled in current dollar terms. Turkey transformed from a lower-middle-income country (LMIC) at the start of the 2000s to very nearly reaching high-income status by 2014. This drove a rapid fall in poverty from above 30 percent to just 9 percent1. Very few other countries matched Turkey’s growth over this period, and almost all of them were new EU member states. -
Publication
Georgia Country Economic Memorandum: Charting Georgia’s Future : Competitive, Connected, Capable
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022)From the Coronavirus (COVID) pandemic to the war in Ukraine, the world and Georgia are experiencing more uncertainty and accelerating disruption. As a small open economy looking to integrate with the global economy, Georgia must carefully navigate these trends by being prepared for the risks and on the lookout for emerging opportunities. A more capable, competitive and connected Georgia will be better placed to navigate these trendsThis Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) aims to inform the policies that could offset these headwinds. To sustain productivity growth, Georgia needs to facilitate its structural transformation and the corresponding spatial adjustment (Chapters 1 and 2). Furthermore, growth will increasingly need to come from improvements in total factor productivity (TFP) in Georgia’s firms (Chapter 3) and advancement in their ability to exploit opportunities in external markets (Chapter 4). Finally, more active and better-skilled labor (Chapter 5) can help offset existing demographic trends and augment productivity. Progress in these areas, supported by higher savings, will make Georgia’s economy more competitive, connected, and capable, help sustain robust GDP growth over the long-term and turn Georgia’s aspirations into reality. -
Publication
Tajikistan Country Gender Assessment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-30)Tajikistan has a lot to show in terms of creating an enabling policy framework for gender equity, yet large gendered challenges remain. The global COVID-19 outbreak is impacting economies around the world, including Tajikistan, in an unprecedented manner and aggravates existing gender challenges. This report is presenting achievements made and challenges still to be addressed in view of gender-equity in Tajikistan, based on a desk study covering using most recent material from Tajikistan national sources, the World Bank, development partners and others. It is oriented towards key strategic objectives of the World Bank Group (WBG) Gender Strategy for the period of FY17-FY23 with relevance for the Tajikistan context. -
Publication
Assessing Uzbekistan’s Transition: Country Economic Memorandum
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-08)Uzbekistan’s transition from planning to market started almost thirty years ago following its independence from the Soviet Union. For most of this period, economic modernization and transformation were stalled, with little change in institutions and policies from those prevailing at the time of the planned economy. In late 2016, Uzbekistan surprised by launching reforms with a breadth and speed that at times exceeded the pace of those observed in some of the earlier reformers at a similar stage of the process. In November 2018, building on the results from more than a year of economic reforms, the government announced the agenda for the next phase of its bold and ambitious economic transformation. In terms of the pace of transition, Uzbekistan’s record has been mixed but appropriate, given that reforms are dependent on experience with markets and prices, initial conditions, and institutional strength. Before the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic started, the reform momentum was supported by comfortable external and fiscal buffers and a robust global economy. The buffers are still sizable, even with doubling of public debt since 2017, and a sign of strength but the pull from the global economy has been substantially diminished. The rest of the introduction reviews progress in the key areas of economic transformation. -
Publication
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Boosting Foreign Direct Investment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)Foreign direct investment (FDI) can bring many benefits to Kosovo’s economy, creating more and better jobs and spurring greater and more resilient economic growth. Many transition economies have used FDI as a pillar of their structural transformation and modernization efforts. The small number of firms in Kosovo that include FDI are more productive than other firms, and they were more resilient in the wake of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) economic recession. In Kosovo, FDI inflows have been concentrated in sectors that provide limited potential for productivity spillovers and benefits to the domestic economy. Kosovo needs to adopt proactive policies to strengthen its investment competitiveness and investor outreach in order to unlock more and higher-quality FDI. This note presents an ambitious reform agenda that can help improve Kosovo’s investment competitiveness and investor outreach. It presents a step-by-step reform program for unlocking the full potential of FDI for economic growth and job creation in Kosovo that the government can implement in the short to medium term. The note is structured in three sections. The first section looks at Kosovo’s FDI performance and assesses the quantity and quality of the FDI attracted so far. The second section benchmarks Kosovo’s locational FDI determinants, considering a set of macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators for its overall FDI competitiveness. The third section combines the findings from the first two sections with an in-depth assessment of Kosovo’s policy, legal, and institutional framework for investment to present a targeted reform agenda and policy action plan to help attract more and higher-quality investments to Kosovo. -
Publication
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Raising Firm Productivity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)To boost economic growth and foster sustained formal job creation in Kosovo, igniting firm productivity is crucial. Based on detailed micro-data, this note examines the characteristics and recent evolution of firms in Kosovo, with particular attention to firm productivity. For the last decade, the landscape of firms in Kosovo has been dominated by microenterprises with low productivity, employment, and survival rates. Firm creation and growth,small firm density, average size, and the likelihood of survival are all low, which implies that there are severe constraints on private sector development. Kosovo’s firms are only tenuously linked to global markets and the country is lagging in the share of female-run companies. Positive and rising net job creation in 2015-18 was driven by higher formalization of jobs and the increasing size of incumbent firms, especially young small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Kosovo needs a multidimensional policy strategy to foster growth in firm productivity. Based on the study findings and the results of other notes prepared for Kosovo’s country economic memorandum (CEM), this note presents a policy strategy that targets the three main sources of firm productivity growth: (1) firm productivity (the within component); (2) market reallocation (the between component); and (3) firm dynamics (entry and exit). Section one examines the characteristics and recent dynamics of Kosovar firms. Section two analyzes the drivers and evolution of productivity, with emphasis on the links between productivity and access to credit. It also assesses the main barriers to productivity growth. Section three sheds light on how Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected Kosovar firms. Section four concludes by discussing tentative policy implications of the analysis. -
Publication
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Enhancing Human Capital by Improving Education
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)This note assesses pre-university education in Kosovo and identifies policies that can improve education quality and equity. There is a substantial need for improvement to the foundations of the education system, especially in terms of coverage and quality. If Kosovo is to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend for faster growth and poverty reduction, making it a policy to invest in human capital through education must be a priority. The low levels of foundational literacy skills limit the ability of Kosovars to develop the skills the labor market requires, especially for those living in rural areas and minority communities and those of low socioeconomic status. Kosovo has made considerable progress in increasing access to preprimary and primary education, but more needs to be done to equitably increase coverage of preschool and secondary education. Narrowing the wide geographic, ethnic, and socioeconomic disparities in education outcomes and ensuring that all children have access to quality education is paramount. The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is expected to further erode Kosovo’s modest improvements made in education. Employers in Kosovo note the poor quality of the education system and the limited practical and professional skills students acquire. -
Publication
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Gearing Up for a More Productive Future
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)Kosovo, one of the youngest countries in an aging Europe, took its first steps on the road to greater prosperity a quarter of a century ago. Kosovo’s economy has experienced significant growth in recent years. The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered Kosovo’s first ever recession in 2020. While spending on education has more than doubled, the quality of human capital needs to improve. And barriers to women’s economic empowerment need to be lifted. Proximity to major markets in Europe and a youthful population provide an opportunity for growth. Kosovo is one of the youngest countries in an aging Europe. Trade facilitation and logistics connectivity are getting better. Proximity to a large and affluent market, low taxes and labor costs, a resilient and liquid financial sector, and strong ties with its diaspora will help support growth. -
Publication
Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Raising Agricultural Productivity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)Igniting farm productivity can support growth and job creation in Kosovo. Agricultural production, in real terms, has been decreasing in Kosovo since 2009 but employment has not changed much. This note examines drivers of agricultural productivity and its growth in Kosovo, and implied constraints on growth of agriculture, using farm-level data. The results of the productivity analysis suggest that in Kosovo there is a considerable misallocation of resources that if remedied can boost growth and job creation. In Kosovo, which suffers from low technical efficiency (TE), an average farm can produce the same amount of output using 72.8 percent less inputs. For micro and small farms, the current design of farm support does not facilitate income smoothing. On the other hand, agribusiness, mainly food processing, has been growing steadily in terms of number of firms, annual turnover, and employment. Finally, the impacts of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Kosovo agriculture have been multiple and so have been policy responses.