Country Economic Memorandum

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2184

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Tajikistan Country Gender Assessment

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-30) World Bank

Tajikistan has a lot to show in terms of creating an enabling policy framework for gender equity, yet large gendered challenges remain. The global COVID-19 outbreak is impacting economies around the world, including Tajikistan, in an unprecedented manner and aggravates existing gender challenges. This report is presenting achievements made and challenges still to be addressed in view of gender-equity in Tajikistan, based on a desk study covering using most recent material from Tajikistan national sources, the World Bank, development partners and others. It is oriented towards key strategic objectives of the World Bank Group (WBG) Gender Strategy for the period of FY17-FY23 with relevance for the Tajikistan context.
Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum: Development for Peace

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-09) Granguillhome, Rogelio ; Hernandez, Marco ; Lach, Samantha ; Masaki, Takaaki ; Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos

This report sheds light on the interlocked long-term territorial development challenges and the recently realized systemic risks affecting the Lake Chad region. It summarizes the findings of seven technical papers, each investigating different aspects of the interlinked challenges faced by the region. These studies are accompanied by complementary research on labor market and geospatial socioeconomic trends, as well as by a review of the thin literature on economic development across the region. In addition to presenting the main results of the technical papers, the report positions the findings in the broader context of an analytical framework depicting the feedback mechanisms between the region’s territorial development gaps and the self-reinforcing link to shocks, namely, violent conflict and climate change. This analytical framework is presented in Section 1.2. The rest of the report is structured as follows. Section 1.3 describes the main social and economic trajectories in the region. It reviews long-term demographic trends, suggesting. Section 1.4 argues that the low-growth, high-poverty equilibrium observed in the region is closely linked to the region’s economic geography. Section 1.5 discusses how the impact of climatic variation and violent conflict experienced in the region interlink with and exacerbate the territorial development challenges. Section 1.6 presents policy directions structured around four crosscutting themes: infrastructure, trade, governance, and natural resource management. The crosscutting nature of these themes encourages the exploration of potential synergies across challenge areas. The discussion in the section aims to inform policy-making efforts to strengthen territorial development and mitigate the impacts of conflict and climate change. Such endeavors can increase the likelihood of breaking free from the self-reinforcing negative mechanisms and boost the potential return of the region to a path of stability and inclusive economic development.
Albania Country Economic Memorandum: Strengthening the Sustainability of Albania’s Growth Model

(Washington, DC, 2021-09) World Bank

Albania is gradually emerging from the unprecedented economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. As the pandemic is overcome, it is crucial to shift attention back to Albania’s long-term objective of building a stronger underlying economic growth model. This country economic memorandum (CEM) highlights 4 key priorities to help Albania identify the next steps in its structural reform agenda. Albania needs to refocus attention on the pre-crisis reform agenda and accelerate long-term economic growth, including by spurring productivity growth, building human capital, and supporting investment. On the labor supply side, this means investing in people and supporting workers’ transition to better employment (Priority 1), while on the labor demand side, this means accelerating firm productivity growth and creating better job opportunities (Priority 2). But Albania should also use the current crisis to set its aspirations higher. Beyond achieving higher economic growth, policymakers need to strengthen the quality of the country’s socioeconomic development model. Through more green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID), Albania can ensure the sustainability of economic growth (Priority 3). Foundationally, this CEM highlights the need for Albania to create fiscal space to support its growth priorities (Priority 4). The COVID-19 crisis has driven public debt to new heights, and upgrading Albania’s growth model - including by implementing many of the reforms presented in this CEM - will require further public spending.
Horn of Africa Regional Economic Memorandum: Overview

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-21) Brenton, Paul ; Bundervoet, Tom ; Edjigu, Habtamu ; Masaki, Takaaki ; Sienaert, Alexis

The objective of this Regional Economic Memorandum (REM) is to strengthen the economic analysis available to policymakers on the challenges and opportunities for regional economic integration to support job creation and economic transformation in the Horn of Africa. It assesses the current state of regional economic integration, how policies and investments can deepen this integration, and how this could help to address the opportunities and challenges confronting the region. The analysis applies both an economic geography perspective (based on the 3Ds framework of the 2009 WDR – density, distance, and division) and the lens of the jobs and economic transformation (JET) agenda, whilst taking into account fragility and conflict and the region’s complex and evolving political economy. This overview synthesizes the key findings of the analysis conducted for the HoA REM, full details of which are presented in a series of Background Papers. The overview briefly describes key aspects of the region’s economy and development progress (Section 2). Next, in Section 3, it presents features of the economic geography of the region and some key results from economic modeling and transport connectivity analysis. The findings demonstrate the salience of the JET agenda in the Horn, and this and its implications are discussed in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 concludes by highlighting the main policy messages which emerge from the REM’s regional-level analysis.
Republic of the Marshall Islands Country Economic Memorandum and Public Expenditure Review: Maximizing Opportunities, Enhancing Sustainability

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-20) World Bank

This joint Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) and Public Expenditure Review (PER) aims to support the Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (GoRMI) to identify a prioritized and sequenced set of reforms to drive increased economic growth, resilience, and fiscal sustainability. The study has two objectives. First, to improve understanding of the challenges, opportunities, and risks to achieving sustainable economic growth and job creation in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Second, to improve the management of public resources to support long-term economic development, fiscal sustainability, and service delivery. The assessment aims to balance the need for reform to drive higher prosperity and resilience with GoRMI’s limited capacity to design and implement reforms and provide public goods and services. The reform priorities identified are also consistent with the RMI’s National Strategic Plan 2020-30, which articulates the nation’s vision to build a resilient, productive, and self-supportive RMI. This Executive Summary is structured in three sections. The first section provides a brief background to RMI and the structure of the economy. The second section summarizes the key issues and challenges to achieving GoRMI’s long-term development objectives under five themes: (i) the management of public finances; (ii) public service delivery; (iii) the fisheries sector; (iv) the labor market and labor mobility; and (v) disaster resilience and climate change. The final section outlines key recommendations under the same five themes.
Aiming High: Navigating the Next Stage of Malaysia’s Development

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02-02) World Bank

Malaysia is likely to make the transition from an upper-middle-income economy to a high-income economy within the next five years, despite thesetback of the COVID-19-induced recession in 2020. This transition represents an important milestone in Malaysia’s development, having transformed living standards in less than a generation, slashing the extreme poverty rate to less than one percent of the population, and ending the country’s long tenure in the “middle-income trap”. However, Malaysia has been severely affected by COVID-19 and it will take several years beforethe scars of the pandemic are fully erased. The country experienced a “triple shock”: the direct health impact of the virus; the economic impact of movement restrictions; and the growth impact of a global recession. With Malaysia on the verge of achieving this transition, it is an opportune time to address a number of questions regarding the speed of Malaysia’s growth, its quality, and its sustainability. Malaysia is growing slower thanmany countries that achieved high-income status in recent decades. In addition, compared to many other countries that have graduated from middle-income status, it has a lower share of employment at high skill levels and higher levels of inequality. And, compared to countries in the OECD, Malaysia collects less in taxes, spends less on social protection, and performs relatively poorly in terms of measures related to environmentalmanagement and the control of corruption. Many of these fault lines have become exposed during the pandemic. Most significantly, there is a growing sense that despite economic growth, the aspirations of Malaysia’s middle-class are not being met and that the economy hasn’t produced enough well-paying, high-quality jobs. There is a widespread sense that the proceeds of growth have not been equitably shared and that increases in the cost-of-living are outstripping incomes, especially in urban areas, where three-fourths of Malaysians reside. Policies and institutions that have worked in the past may no longer be appropriate for the next stage of Malaysia’s development, with a different set of policies and institutions required at higher levels of income and development. The policies that enabled Malaysia to successfully make the transition from low- to middle-income need to be adapted to meet the challenges it will face in the future. At an earlier stage of its development, factor accumulation was a key driver of Malaysia’s growth. As it makes the transition, it will increasingly need to depend upon more knowledge-intensive and productivity-driven growth, closer to the technological frontier and with a greater emphasis on achieving inclusive and sustainable development. As Malaysia positions itself for the next phase of its development and beyond the pandemic, many of the issues related to this transformation are being addressed and discussed, including through the 12th Malaysia Plan and the Shared Prosperity Vision 2030. With the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential to depress growth into the future, issues related to Malaysia’s readiness for the future have become even more significant. The analysis in this report suggests that for Malaysia to fulfil its potential, to transition successfully to high-income and developed country status, and to sustain equitable growth beyond that point, reforms are needed in six broad and inter-linked areas: (i) revitalizing long-term growth; (ii) boosting competitiveness; (iii) creating jobs; (iv) modernizing institutions; (v) promoting inclusion; and (vi) financing shared prosperity.
Escaping the Low-Growth Trap: Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-02) World Bank

Guinea-Bissau’s massive economic potential has not so far translated into better livelihoods for its population. Growth per capita has averaged less than 1 percent per year over 2000-2019. This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the factors behind the economic stagnation. An interplay of three constraints have impeded sustained high growth. First, the low and volatile growth performance is linked to fragility and political instability, which, together with a poorly diversified economy, with raw cashew nuts accounting for 95-98 percent of export earnings, help explain the stop-go growth cycle. Second, human capital accumulation remains low. An acute shortage of a skilled workforce is a major constraint to inclusive growth. The education system is marked by alarmingly low levels of learning. Third, private investment is particularly low—the second lowest in Africa. Years of underinvestment in infrastructure, energy, and human capital are holding the country back from achieving strong, enduring and inclusive growth. The chapter concludes by highlighting how the COVID-19 crisis exacerbates these constraints and discusses areas that could support sustainable growth. The chapter is organized as follows: section 1.1 presents a brief overview of the political and social context. Section 1.2 puts recent growth into historical and comparative perspective. Section 1.3 presents analysis that helps explain the low-growth trap and identifies possible areas that Guinea-Bissau could pursue to escape this trap. Finally, Section 1.4 discusses the economic impact of COVID-19 and potential pathways to recovery.
Mines and Minds: Leveraging Natural Wealth to Invest in People and Institutions

(World Bank, Ulaanbaatar, 2020-09) World Bank

Mines represent Mongolia’s present, while minds - broadly defined to include people and institutions - are its future. Current policies are excessively focused on preserving the mining-driven prosperity at the risk of future stagnation. Such complacency is ill-timed when climate change concerns and the COVID-19 shock require an acceleration of structural transformation. Mongolia faces deep-rooted, interrelated challenges: macroeconomic policy mistakes have amplified external shocks, an oligopolistic ownership structure and limited competition have led firms to become more inward-looking and less inclined to innovate, and gross underutilization of human capital - evident by an unprecedented exodus of young and educated workers to foreign countries - has eroded the foundation of a diversified economy.
Mauritania Country Economic Memorandum: Accelerating Growth Through Diversification and Productive Cities

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) World Bank

The Mauritanian economy is at an important crossroad. Despite significant increases in itsnatural resource wealth, economic development in Mauritania remains weak. The over-reliance on natural resources has left the economy undiversified with growth, exports, and fiscal revenues all dependent on extractives. Responding to the 2015 commodity price shock, the authorities implemented a strong fiscal consolidation program that restored macroeconomic stability andsteered the economy onto a recovery path. The new administration—appointed following the election in mid-2019—now has the challenge and opportunity to map out a more sustainable development model and steer the economy onto a path of accelerated and equitable economic growth for the rapidly growing population. The objective of this report is to support policy makers in Mauritania in their reform efforts to accelerate growth as outlined in the National Development Plan (SCAPP).It attempts to answer the following questions: (i) Why Mauritania could not diversify its economy in the past and what are the opportunities to do so in the future? (ii) What are the reasons behind the weak link between urbanization and growth, and is Nouakchott lifting its weight as anurban agglomeration? (iii) Which policy actions could help build those pathways? By answering these questions, the report aims to contribute to the economic discussion and provide policy recommendations for the choices that Mauritania is facing to accelerate growth and improve theliving standards of its population. The report is organized around five chapters. Chapter 1starts with a brief introduction. Chapter 2 analyzes the key characteristics of Mauritania’s past growth performance. Chapter 3 evaluates the current and future potential for economic and export diversification. Chapter 4 examines the challenges that are preventing urbanization from contributing to growth, with a focus on Nouakchott. Chapter 5 concludes by proposing a menu of policy recommendations that could help Mauritania achieve faster and more sustainable economic growth.
Vibrant Vietnam: Forging the Foundation of a High-Income Economy

(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05) World Bank Group

Vietnam’s development strategy requires an urgent upgrade. Past growth has been impressive. But as a favorable domestic and international environment changes, future growth must be productivity-driven—obtaining more and higher quality output from firms, infrastructure, workers and natural resources. The World Bank’s Vibrant Vietnam report discusses priorities for an upgraded growth model based on extensive consultations, international experience and academic findings.