Country Economic Memorandum

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Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start, Summary

(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12) World Bank

After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start

(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12) World Bank

After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.
Republic of Burundi - Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) : The Challenge of Achieving Stable and Shared Growth

(World Bank, 2011-03-01) World Bank

This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is the first for Burundi since the 1980s. It has been developed in collaboration with the government of Burundi. The CEM has been prepared in cooperation with the African development bank and the U.K. department for international development. Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the world, and has suffered from many years of civil conflict and its consequences. In the last years, peace has been established and a promising recovery of the economy has started. Economic growth rates, however, are not in line with what has been projected in the latest poverty reduction strategy paper (September 2006). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth had been projected to average almost 7 percent between 2006 and 2009 in that strategy paper, but actual growth will average just above 4 percent for the same period. The report reviews the economic developments in the past and tries to identify the most binding constraints to growth. The CEM then sets out a strategy to address these constraints to promote increased and participatory growth, reduce poverty, and improve the livelihood of the population. The report draws on a number of background studies conducted on various subjects relevant to the country's economic development and on existing reports and studies from the government of Burundi, the World Bank, other donors, and academics. The CEM provides a synthesis of various recommendations and attempts to prioritize and sequence key actions.
Malawi - Country Economic Memorandum : Seizing Opportunities for Growth through Regional Integration and Trade - Summary of Main Finding and Recommendations

(World Bank, 2010-01-31) World Bank

Malawi needs to focus on exports to maintain and broaden its current inspiring levels of economic growth. The focus of future policy should therefore be on reforms that improve competitiveness in global and regional markets. This does not require a fundamental shift in direction, but instead a rebalancing of policy and expenditures to support an outward-oriented development framework. Until the recent global financial crisis, domestic and regional trends were promising for Malawi: rapid economic growth, strong donor support, increases in foreign direct investment, real potential to upgrade regional infrastructure, and the gradual dismantling of barriers within the region through the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) free trade areas. Despite recent global developments, this report makes the case that, for a small landlocked economy like Malawi, integration into a dynamic and more open Southern Africa region will remain a key to building prosperity and improving livelihoods.
Sudan - The Road Toward Sustainable and Broad-Based Growth

(World Bank, 2009-12-01) World Bank

This report proposes a growth strategy for Sudan that reduces its dependence on oil, while building an economic foundation for a diversified, inclusive and sustainable growth path. Specifically, Sudan's near term strategy should focus on: a) developing and maintaining the necessary enabling environment for growth, specifically macroeconomic stability and effective fiscal management (chapter one); b) implementing policies aimed at improving the investment climate and broadening private sector- led growth (chapters two and five); c) increasing returns to the agriculture sector as the highest potential engine of growth and poverty reduction over the medium-term (chapter four); d) developing a comprehensive reconstruction plan for the South (chapter six); and e) complementing technocratic reforms with good governance.
Sudan - Toward Sustainable and Broad-Based Growth

(World Bank, 2009-12-01) World Bank

Sudan is in the 10th year of its longest and strongest growth episode since independence, benefiting from the advent of oil in 1999. This report proposes a growth strategy for Sudan that reduces its dependence on oil, while building an economic foundation for a diversified, inclusive and sustainable growth path. Specifically, Sudan's near term strategy should focus on: a) developing and maintaining the necessary enabling environment for growth, specifically macroeconomic stability and effective fiscal management (chapter one); b) implementing policies aimed at improving the investment climate and broadening private sector-led growth (chapters two and five); c) increasing returns to the agriculture sector as the highest potential engine of growth and poverty reduction over the medium-term (chapter four); d) developing a comprehensive reconstruction plan for the South (chapter six); and e) complementing technocratic reforms with good governance. Sudan needs a new, more balanced growth vision that is less reliant on oil, while using the oil wealth to create an economic foundation for a diversified, inclusive, and sustainable growth path.
Benin - Constraints to Growth and Potential for Diversification and Innovation : Country Economic Memorandum

(World Bank, 2009-06-18) World Bank

With favorable geographical location, macroeconomic stability, debt reduction, progress on structural reforms, and political stability, Benin will seem to have the foundations for a dynamic, diversified economy. Yet the country's economic structure has not evolved, remaining highly dependent on cotton and transit trade, and per-capita growth has slowed down in recent years. The government has requested the World Bank's assistance in understanding the constraints to growth and evaluating the country's potential for diversification and innovation as it seeks to lead the country to emerging market status by 2020. The government is well aware that the vulnerabilities associated with the country's dependence on cotton and transit trade impede the attainment of this goal. Response to the government's request, the objective of the Benin Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is therefore to identify and analyze the key economic and institutional constraints to growth, including through diversification and innovation. The CEM contains four main chapters, each providing theoretical or empirical analyses of Benin's economic situation and prospects: a) cross-sectoral binding constraints to growth; b) analysis of specific constraints in the cotton and transit trade sectors; c) diversification and innovation potential; and d) political economy of growth.
Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2, Annexes

(Washington, DC, 2008-12) World Bank

The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows, putting the need to follow an adequate foreign exchange management policy at the center of the agenda and, thus, minimize its possible negative impact on exports. The second part will focus on the issue of private sector promotion. Recent diagnoses of Madagascar's economy and the strategy adopted by Malagasy authorities (with the support of its development partners) have shown that to be sustained and shared out over time, economic growth will have to rely on a dynamic and competitive private sector. The third part is dedicated to sharing the fruits of economic growth by giving a special emphasis to the distribution of the benefits related to the large mining and tourism investment projects within the population. These large projects represent a unique opportunity for Madagascar's development but also undoubtedly a danger if they do not allow the emergence of spillover effects among the local businesses and labor force. Finally, the fourth and final part proposes an agenda of economic reforms. Ambition is not to formulate a patchy list of proposals, but rather to propose a series of options that will help address the issues of competitiveness and shared growth that are central to the success of the current strategy followed by the Malagasy authorities.
Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1, Main Report

(Washington, DC, 2008-12) World Bank

The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows, putting the need to follow an adequate foreign exchange management policy at the center of the agenda and, thus, minimize its possible negative impact on exports. The second part will focus on the issue of private sector promotion. Recent diagnoses of Madagascar's economy and the strategy adopted by Malagasy authorities (with the support of its development partners) have shown that to be sustained and shared out over time, economic growth will have to rely on a dynamic and competitive private sector. The third part is dedicated to sharing the fruits of economic growth by giving a special emphasis to the distribution of the benefits related to the large mining and tourism investment projects within the population. These large projects represent a unique opportunity for Madagascar's development but also undoubtedly a danger if they do not allow the emergence of spillover effects among the local businesses and labor force. Finally, the fourth and final part proposes an agenda of economic reforms. Ambition is not to formulate a patchy list of proposals, but rather to propose a series of options that will help address the issues of competitiveness and shared growth that are central to the success of the current strategy followed by the Malagasy authorities.
Ghana - Meeting the Challenge of Accelerated and Shared Growth : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 3. Background papers

(Washington, DC, 2007-11-28) World Bank

Ghana has done increasingly well in recent years. This report has analyzed these issues in considerable depth, making it a prime reference on Ghana's growth and poverty experience and current policy challenges. The Ghana Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) report presented in these three volumes brings together detailed, relevant analyses of Ghana's growth and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), poverty reduction, infrastructure, agriculture, investment climate, export competitiveness, social inclusion and political economy.