Country Economic Memorandum

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Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start, Summary

(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12) World Bank

After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start

(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12) World Bank

After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.
Turkey’s Transitions : Integration, Inclusion, Institutions

(Washington, DC, 2014-12-01) World Bank

Turkey has always been a country of strategic significance. Its geographic position as a bridge between East and West, its long and unique history of relations with the European Union (EU), and the particular rout the Republic of Turkey chose towards modernization after its foundation in 1923 have attracted the attention of historian and political scientists a like. More recently, Turkey’s economic success has become a source of inspiration for a number of developing countries, particularly – but no only – in the Muslim world. Over the last two years, however, questions have emerged over the lessons to be drawn from Turkey’s experience. Economic growth has come down to a modest 3-4% range - from well over 5% during 2002-2011 - and risks related to the country’s large external financing needs have not been banished. Critics have raised questions over the strength of Turkey’s legal and economic institutions, and economists are concerned that Turkey may remain ‘trapped’ in its current middle income status. This publication is addressed to policy makers both from other emerging markets and from Turkey itself. To the former, if offers lessons in how Turkey progressed towards international integration and increased social inclusion. To the latter, it offers a narrative of the country’s achievements and remaining challenges that may help define the reform agenda going forward.
Georgia : Seizing the Opportunity to Prosper

(Washington, DC, 2014-12) World Bank

Georgia: Seizing the Opportunity to Prosper suggests a path towards sustainable and shared growth. Georgia s story is associated with three stylized facts: high growth with persistent unemployment currently at nearly 15 percent after 10 years of annual growth that averaged above 5.5 percent; a doing business rank of 8 out of 189 countries achieved without recovery to 1990 levels of per capita income suggesting a relatively difficult transition experience in spite of noteworthy success with several governance and business environment reforms; and obstinate socio-economic vulnerabilities reflected in Georgia s status as one of the poorest countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region of the World Bank with a relatively weak performance on reducing poverty and inequality. Georgia is well positioned to achieve its development objectives. The main challenge is persistent joblessness, which must be addressed to establish a sustainable basis for the pro-poor development model outlined in the Government s Socio-Economic Strategy 2020. This report, which is anchored in the Government s Socio-economic Development Strategy 2020, explores the potential for improved export competitiveness to strengthen employment growth in Georgia and is intended to inform a policy agenda mainly focused on the demand side of the labor market.
Poland : Saving for Growth and Prosperous Aging

(Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank

The recent financial crisis has emphasized the role of national saving for rising economic growth and promoting development. Since the crisis began, global markets have experienced deteriorating public finances, household deleveraging, differing speeds of recovery, and eroding confidence in financial systems, all of which have deterred long-term investments. In the context of this new growth agenda, the present report analyzes the trends and determinants of domestic saving in Poland and provides policy options for increasing saving, particularly over the long term. Improved national saving provides funding for a country to take advantage of more investment opportunities. From the microeconomic perspective, increasing national saving will support incomes in an aging society, helping address the issue of the adequacy of retirement incomes. However, increasing national saving involves also some costs, which should be carefully balanced against the potential benefits. In this context, the report is divided into seven chapters. Chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two presents recent trends and determinants of growth in Poland, as well as challenges for its long-term prospects. Chapter three discusses the determinants of and influences on the level of private saving. Chapter four complements this discussion by portraying the government's role in determining the level of saving in the economy. Chapter five discusses the importance of saving for the financial sector, its ability to promote saving, and instruments that may be promoted to meet the needs of Polish savers. Chapter six quantifies the impact of potential changes to the main determinants of saving on performance of saving and economic growth in Poland. Finally, chapter seven focuses on policy analysis.
Reviving Romania's Growth and Convergence Challenges and Opportunities : A Country Economic Memorandum

(Washington, DC, 2013-06-21) World Bank

This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) sets a framework for a dialogue on inclusive economic growth and income convergence in Romania. Generous Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and other financial inflows lifted consumer demand, built up key industries, modernized wholesale trade and unleashed the movement of labor from low-productivity activities like agriculture towards high-productivity activities like manufacturing. Public and private investments in education lifted tertiary education enrollment from 12 to 23 percent. Preliminary calculations suggest that this growth was shared even after the crisis, as the income of the bottom 40 percent of the population grew by 5.5 percent on average during the 2000-2011 periods, a pace slightly above the 4.8 percent growth in the income of all households and the 4.1 percent average growth. Achievements notwithstanding, there is little room for complacency. The report discusses the immediate constraints to economic growth in areas where the short-term pay-off is high rather than covering all potential sources of growth for Romania. Although these are only the initial steps to reignite growth, the challenges of addressing each of these constraints should not be underestimated. Tackling them effectively demands a strong strategic vision, meticulous planning, and policy coordination. A significant amount of strategic communication of the benefits of the outlined reforms for the country will also be required since the roadblock to shaping and implementing these policies is likely to be vested interests, institutional inertia and lack of political consensus. In short, the crisis revealed the weakness of Romania's past growth model: it was based to a large extent on consumption and short-term capital inflows rather than on sustained productivity increases in tradable sectors and it concealed significant inefficiencies in the public sector.
Republic of Armenia : Accumulation, Competition, and Connectivity

(Washington, DC, 2013-04) World Bank

By 2013, the Armenian economy has left behind most of the hangover from the global financial crisis and a look at medium- to long-term growth drivers is therefore in order. The central tenet of this report is that the government's job creation agenda requires a different growth model than the one followed before the global crisis. Reaching the goals of the government's strategy will require a combination of four factors: first, higher investment and better financial intermediation between savers and investors. Second, better utilization of the labor force, including the largely untapped resource of Armenians abroad. Third, stronger competitive pressures in the markets for goods and services, which will improve incentives for companies to innovate, adopt new technologies, and become more efficient. Fourth, enhanced connections of the landlocked Armenian economy with world markets, including through land, air, and through internet and communication technologies. This report's theoretical framework emphasizes structural reforms to drive growth. This report is structured as follows: chapter one is macroeconomic developments and outlook; chapter two focuses on saving, investment, and financial intermediation; chapter three focuses on human resources; chapter four focuses on competition; chapter five focuses on land connectivity; chapter six focuses on air connectivity; and chapter seven deals with internet and communications technology (ICT).
Bangladesh - Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth : Opportunities and Challenges, Volume 1. Overview

(Washington, DC, 2012-09) World Bank

In Bangladesh, growth needs to accelerate to absorb the burgeoning labor force and continue making dents in poverty. Such acceleration will require sustained growth in exports and remittances. It will also need an increase in investment both public and private. However, growth acceleration alone will not be enough to absorb the labor force. This will need an improvement in employment intensity of growth, and a further improvement in inclusiveness of service delivery. Moreover, to help ensure that growth acceleration is sustained, the ex-ante and ex-post effects of climate change will need to be addressed. Finally, urbanization offers opportunities to accelerate growth, but can also undermine it if not proactively managed. Bangladesh's Gross National Income (GNI) per capita more than tripled in the past two-and-a-half decades, from an average of US$251 in the 1980s to US$784 by 2011. This growth was accompanied by impressive progress in human development. Yet, after 40 years of independence, Bangladesh remains a low-income country with nearly 50 million people still impoverished and its economic growth potential under-exploited. It is therefore important to understand the drivers underpinning Bangladesh's growth process, what enabled the drivers to move Bangladesh forward, what its prospects are for graduating to middle-income country status by 2021, as envisaged in its sixth five-year plan, and what it would take to accelerate growth sufficiently to achieve this objective.
Belarus Country Economic Memorandum : Eeconomic Transformation for Growth

(Washington, DC, 2012-04-05) World Bank

The last decade in Belarus was marked by an average economic growth rate of close to 8 percent annually and an impressive eight-fold reduction in poverty. Economic growth was initially driven by external factors, but after 2005 expansionary domestic demand became the prevalent contributor to growth. Growth was backed by large state support to the economy, sizeable public investments, and huge expansion of credit, particularly under government directed lending programs. Simultaneously, the external balance shifted from a surplus of 1.4 percent of growth development product (GDP) in 2005 to a deficit of 15.0 percent of GDP in 2010. Throughout the period 2001-10, the economic model relied on underpriced energy resources from Russia, with an annual average size of the imputed subsidy of over 13 percent of GDP. However, the existing growth model has reached its limits and cannot ensure growth sustainability without structural reforms. Going forward, the growth model will have to rely on significant productivity gains driven by structural reforms in an environment of macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic adjustment which effectively combats the sources of external imbalances in Belarus is a critical and necessary, but insufficient condition for achieving sustainable economic growth in the medium term. The Belarusian economy is facing formidable challenges beyond the macroeconomic issue of adequately financing its external imbalances: (1) how to reallocate labor and capital to high productivity segments of the economy; (2) how to restructure the state-owned enterprise sector; and (3) how to support the underdeveloped private sector and the services sector. By successfully overcoming these challenges, Belarus will revive its competitive segments of the economy and discover untapped opportunities for growth. It will also diminish its economic dependence on underpriced energy from Russia and move up the value chain in global integration. With valuable geographical location and an educated and disciplined labor force, Belarus can restructure its economy, diversify its exports, and increase the prosperity of its people.
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) : Sustaining High Growth - The Role of Domestic savings : Synthesis Report

(Washington, DC, 2011-12) World Bank

Domestic savings in Turkey declined significantly in the 2000s. The domestic savings rate declined from an average of 23.5 percent of gross national income in the 1990s to an average of 17 percent over the 2000-2008 period, and further to 12.7 percent in 2010. This decline was driven by the sharp fall in private saving, while public saving increased through most of the period. A strong fiscal adjustment underpinned the improvement in public savings in the post-2001 period. The adjustment was pursued to correct the fiscal expansion of the previous decade, and it led to a sharp reduction in the public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. This improved the public saving-investment balance and helped reduce the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks. With an expected increase in future investment needs, continued fiscal discipline will be vital for sustainable growth. The fall in private savings after 2001 was mostly a result of the decline in macroeconomic vulnerabilities. While the economy was growing fast, the positive impact of income growth on savings was overridden by an acceleration of private consumption stimulated by the increased availability of credit, fall in interest rates and previously postponed consumption. As the economy normalized and interest rates and inflation declined, so did household precautionary motives for saving. Eventually, however, continued economic stability and implementation of reforms discussed below should encourage saving by raising incomes. Structurally, Turkish households have a strong precautionary motive for savings. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities and the resulting unstable income streams, the risk of unemployment, and health risks are obvious reasons for household decisions to save. Declining interest rates (as in the 2000s) that reflected reduced risk premium and hence vulnerability reduced precautionary savings motives. Households where the head is an employer or self-employed rather than a wage earner tend to save more, while households where there is a green card holder (a non-contributory health program) save less, controlling for the income effect.