Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Republic of Yemen: Unlocking the Potential for Economic Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10)Part one of the report provides an overview of the economy. It has one chapter (chapter one), which provides an overview of the country’s growth and macroeconomic performance and challenges and analyzes and emphasizes the limited dynamism of a rent- and hydrocarbon-cursed economy. Part II describes cross-cutting issues that constrain policy implementation, regardless of the sectors where they occur. In chapter two, the report draws on material outlined in the rest of the report to argue that the policy problems that undermine the country’s development can be linked directly to political distortions introduced by the fragmentation among the population and the elites. While the informal elite networks are able to block reform and aggressively continue to seek rents that might otherwise be recycled into development, the population is unable to exert its rights and hold the elites accountable. Chapter three analyzes the major impediments in the business environment. Through the analysis of the de jure legal and regulatory business environment as well as the enforcement of business regulations, the chapter identifies key legal and institutional changes that can help reduce the opportunities for rent seeking that favor well-connected businesses. Chapter four discusses the opportunities to maximize the benefits of the country’s human capital by enhancing the quality of worker skills, increasing women’s labor force participation, and facilitating the migration of Yemenis to work in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. To achieve this goal, the Republic of Yemen needs to enhance the quality of the education system, especially technical education and vocational training (TEVT), and respond to the existing demand for skilled workers. Chapter five explores the constraints to realizing the potential of agriculture. It argues that a key constraint on the sector is the capture of land and water by multiple elites motivated by short-term rent extraction, which prevents the efficient management of these assets and therefore undermines any possibility of sustainable development. The chapter also discusses other constraints and weaknesses affecting the sector and proposes legal and institutional changes that could help increase transparency in the management of the sector. Chapter six analyzes the prospects for growth in the oil and gas sector and discusses key governance reforms that would help reduce rent seeking in the sector. -
Publication
Uganda Country Economic Memorandum: Economic Diversification and Growth in the Era of Oil and Volatility
(World Bank, Kampala, Uganda, 2015-06)The objective of the Ugandan government is to make Uganda an upper - middle income country within thirty years. Economic diversification is a key component of that strategy. The country economic memorandum (CEM) report discusses how the emergence of oil and mineral production can contribute to Uganda’s effort to promote economic diversification as a means to achieve sustainable and shared growth. Based on the lessons from international experience, the report outlines the elements of a development and diversification strategy, which the Ugandan government may wish to consider in the design of its macroeconomic, fiscal, and sectoral development policies. It then focuses on the set of policies required to maximize the benefits of a diversification strategy in an oil-producing country. Finally it describes a series of actions which the government should plan, and carry out to deal with a number of specific implementation issues. The first part of the report focuses on the importance of economic diversification for Uganda and on the prospects and challenges of oil and mineral development. It addresses the following three issues: (a) why diversification is important for economic development?; (b) where Uganda stands in that area and why it should give a new impetus to its diversification strategy?; and (c) what are the prospects, possible impact, and challenges associated to oil and mining development for Uganda’s economy? -
Publication
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start, Summary
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved. -
Publication
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved. -
Publication
Iraq: Diversified Development in a Resource-Rich Fragile State
(Washington, DC, 2015)More than 10 years after the overthrow of Saddam, the impatience of the Iraqi people and government for transformation of their economy to advance shared prosperity is growing. The government has expressed the desire for the World Bank Group to enhance its role in this transformation. This note proposes two pillars for the government to consider as central to the objective of diversification: enabling transformative investments and a comprehensive financing framework aligned with these investments. The obstacles to this approach are considerable, so a pre-requisite is high level government ownership and an implementing structure to match. A proposed institutional structure to embody this is outlined.