Country Economic Memorandum
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Uganda Country Economic Memorandum: Economic Diversification and Growth in the Era of Oil and Volatility
(World Bank, Kampala, Uganda, 2015-06)The objective of the Ugandan government is to make Uganda an upper - middle income country within thirty years. Economic diversification is a key component of that strategy. The country economic memorandum (CEM) report discusses how the emergence of oil and mineral production can contribute to Uganda’s effort to promote economic diversification as a means to achieve sustainable and shared growth. Based on the lessons from international experience, the report outlines the elements of a development and diversification strategy, which the Ugandan government may wish to consider in the design of its macroeconomic, fiscal, and sectoral development policies. It then focuses on the set of policies required to maximize the benefits of a diversification strategy in an oil-producing country. Finally it describes a series of actions which the government should plan, and carry out to deal with a number of specific implementation issues. The first part of the report focuses on the importance of economic diversification for Uganda and on the prospects and challenges of oil and mineral development. It addresses the following three issues: (a) why diversification is important for economic development?; (b) where Uganda stands in that area and why it should give a new impetus to its diversification strategy?; and (c) what are the prospects, possible impact, and challenges associated to oil and mining development for Uganda’s economy? -
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Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start, Summary
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved. -
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Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved. -
Publication
Republic of Burundi - Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) : The Challenge of Achieving Stable and Shared Growth
(World Bank, 2011-03-01)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is the first for Burundi since the 1980s. It has been developed in collaboration with the government of Burundi. The CEM has been prepared in cooperation with the African development bank and the U.K. department for international development. Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the world, and has suffered from many years of civil conflict and its consequences. In the last years, peace has been established and a promising recovery of the economy has started. Economic growth rates, however, are not in line with what has been projected in the latest poverty reduction strategy paper (September 2006). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth had been projected to average almost 7 percent between 2006 and 2009 in that strategy paper, but actual growth will average just above 4 percent for the same period. The report reviews the economic developments in the past and tries to identify the most binding constraints to growth. The CEM then sets out a strategy to address these constraints to promote increased and participatory growth, reduce poverty, and improve the livelihood of the population. The report draws on a number of background studies conducted on various subjects relevant to the country's economic development and on existing reports and studies from the government of Burundi, the World Bank, other donors, and academics. The CEM provides a synthesis of various recommendations and attempts to prioritize and sequence key actions. -
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Burkina Faso - Promoting Growth, Competitiveness and Diversification : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2010-09)The main conclusion of Country Economic Memorandum is that the previous model of extensive growth has now exhausted its potential and must be renewed. Given the existing population dynamics, low environmental tolerance due to its Sahelian climate and competition forces imposed due to its open economy, Burkina Faso is heavily investing in growth based on increased productivity to overcome its low level of initial human capital, capacity constraints and regulation. To help define the new model of development of Burkina Faso, the Country Economic Memorandum is exploring growth based on productivity both at macro-, meso-economic or sectoral, micro and institutional levels only. It also assesses the sustainability of growth in the human, demographic, financial, fiscal and physical infrastructure. Wherever possible, it evaluates the performance of previous development programs and provides diagnostics on problems. It analyzes the current situation in terms of challenges and opportunities. Several major constraints on growth have been identified and the Memorandum offers practical ways to reduce or mitigate them. These constraints are: i. The frequency of exogenous shocks on agriculture in Burkina Faso, especially cotton, significantly slows the socio-economic development; ii. The real appreciation of the exchange rate has eroded the price competitiveness; iii. The country's attractiveness to foreign direct investment, despite significant progress in the business environment, limited growth potential; iv. The high fertility rates impede growth per capita and social development beginning with human capital; v. Environmental constraints limit the extensive growth of agriculture, while food security is always a challenge for human development; vi. The vulnerability of poor households prevents them from truly engaging in productive economic activities; vii. Constraints on institutional and human capacities reduce the effectiveness of public policies. The first volume of the Memorandum emphasizes the need for Burkina Faso to consider the macroeconomic and microeconomic constraints to growth and competitiveness, draws attention to the low sophistication of its exports and suggests policy instruments to facilitate the promotion of export and investment led by the private sector. The second volume emphasizes (i) the need for appropriate choices to ensure the viability of the cotton sector, (ii) the development of supply chains to achieve food security, growth and import substitution, (iii) the important role in the mining sector for growth, with good revenue management, and finally (iv) the potential of tourism as an industry will depend on the service quality improvements and the accommodation capacity and infrastructure. The third volume identifies the actions necessary to (i) address the issues of demographic change through better information, education and communication campaigns to bring about behavioral changes, (ii) develop instruments of risk management to manage the risks of economic, social, health, natural and food security, (iii) improve the country's access to regional and international markets, better connections to regional transport infrastructure, electricity, and telecommunications, water services and improved irrigation systems, (iv) exploiting the financial intermediation by new mechanisms of access to credit, reform the financial sector and institutional capacity building in financial management and risk in the business sector, and (v) create and use the budget by prioritizing expenditures, ensuring the collection of revenue and increasing the flow of aid. -
Publication
Burkina Faso - Promoting Growth, Competitiveness and Diversification : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2. Sources of Growth - Key Sectors for Tomorrow
(Washington, DC, 2010-09)The main conclusion of Country Economic Memorandum is that the previous model of extensive growth has now exhausted its potential and must be renewed. Given the existing population dynamics, low environmental tolerance due to its Sahelian climate and competition forces imposed due to its open economy, Burkina Faso is heavily investing in growth based on increased productivity to overcome its low level of initial human capital, capacity constraints and regulation. To help define the new model of development of Burkina Faso, the Country Economic Memorandum is exploring growth based on productivity both at macro-, meso-economic or sectoral, micro and institutional levels only. It also assesses the sustainability of growth in the human, demographic, financial, fiscal and physical infrastructure. Wherever possible, it evaluates the performance of previous development programs and provides diagnostics on problems. It analyzes the current situation in terms of challenges and opportunities. Several major constraints on growth have been identified and the Memorandum offers practical ways to reduce or mitigate them. These constraints are: i. The frequency of exogenous shocks on agriculture in Burkina Faso, especially cotton, significantly slows the socio-economic development; ii. The real appreciation of the exchange rate has eroded the price competitiveness; iii. The country's attractiveness to foreign direct investment, despite significant progress in the business environment, limited growth potential; iv. The high fertility rates impede growth per capita and social development beginning with human capital; v. Environmental constraints limit the extensive growth of agriculture, while food security is always a challenge for human development; vi. The vulnerability of poor households prevents them from truly engaging in productive economic activities; vii. Constraints on institutional and human capacities reduce the effectiveness of public policies. The first volume of the Memorandum emphasizes the need for Burkina Faso to consider the macroeconomic and microeconomic constraints to growth and competitiveness, draws attention to the low sophistication of its exports and suggests policy instruments to facilitate the promotion of export and investment led by the private sector. The second volume emphasizes (i) the need for appropriate choices to ensure the viability of the cotton sector, (ii) the development of supply chains to achieve food security, growth and import substitution, (iii) the important role in the mining sector for growth, with good revenue management, and finally (iv) the potential of tourism as an industry will depend on the service quality improvements and the accommodation capacity and infrastructure. The third volume identifies the actions necessary to (i) address the issues of demographic change through better information, education and communication campaigns to bring about behavioral changes, (ii) develop instruments of risk management to manage the risks of economic, social, health, natural and food security, (iii) improve the country's access to regional and international markets, better connections to regional transport infrastructure, electricity, and telecommunications, water services and improved irrigation systems, (iv) exploiting the financial intermediation by new mechanisms of access to credit, reform the financial sector and institutional capacity building in financial management and risk in the business sector, and (v) create and use the budget by prioritizing expenditures, ensuring the collection of revenue and increasing the flow of aid. -
Publication
Guinea-Bissau - Cashew and Beyond : Diversification Through Trade
(World Bank, 2010-05-01)Guinea-Bissau is highly dependent on international trade even when compared to other nations of its size and income level. However, it is equally clear that the country could derive far more benefit from its international trade opportunities than it does at the present time. This study examines how to do this, looking not only at trade policy, the investment climate, and infrastructure, but also five key sectors where specific opportunities exist. There are three recommendations which stand out as having a particularly important and pervasive effect on trade and its potential role in raising incomes and reducing poverty. Indeed, they can be regarded as preconditions for significant progress. It is of primary importance that the job of formulating and implementing economic policy be put on a more stable and long term basis The extreme instability in Guinea-Bissau's government has meant that cabinet ministers and lower officials change on an annual or even more frequent basis. This situation makes long term planning and sustained implementation virtually impossible and the formulation of coherent policy equally difficult. To these, one might add the illegal drug trade which can undermine the best economic policies through an escalation of crime, corruption and addiction, as already observed in some other countries. However, this important issue has not been addressed in this report. -
Publication
Rwanda : Toward Sustained Growth and Competitiveness, Volume 1. Synthesis and Priority Measures
(Washington, DC, 2007-10-12)Rwanda established targets for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and poverty reduction, to be achieved by the year 2020; these were to (i) raise real per capita income from $230 to $900; and (ii) reduce the poverty incidence by half. To reach these targets, the Government projected in its 2002 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) that GDP growth will to be in the range of 6 to 7 percent over the medium term. The PRSP focused on six priority areas: (i) rural development and agricultural transformation; (ii) human development; (iii) economic infrastructure; (iv) good governance; (v) private sector development; and (vi) institutional capacity development. While increased spending in the social sectors led to substantial improvements in outcomes there has been only limited spending for economic services, including investment to improve productivity in agriculture and manufacturing. Improvements in poverty have been marginal, due to a number of factors: (i) lack of investment in infrastructure during the recovery and stabilization phase, to complement the reforms undertaken to improve the business environment; (ii) lack of investments in capacity, institutions, and land/water management in the agricultural sector; (iii) continued low use of inputs; (iv) instability within the region; (v) delays in Rwanda's accession to the East Africa Community (EAC); and (vi) a slower than expected pace of reform in key sectors such as the tea industry. The PRSP anticipated that growth in the agricultural sector will proceed with progressive commercialization, with ensuing demand for agricultural and non-agricultural goods and services in rural areas, resulting in increasing non-farm employment. -
Publication
Rwanda : Toward Sustained Growth and Competitiveness, Volume 2. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2007-10-12)Rwanda established targets for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and poverty reduction, to be achieved by the year 2020; these were to (i) raise real per capita income from $230 to $900; and (ii) reduce the poverty incidence by half. To reach these targets, the Government projected in its 2002 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) that GDP growth will to be in the range of 6 to 7 percent over the medium term. The PRSP focused on six priority areas: (i) rural development and agricultural transformation; (ii) human development; (iii) economic infrastructure; (iv) good governance; (v) private sector development; and (vi) institutional capacity development. While increased spending in the social sectors led to substantial improvements in outcomes there has been only limited spending for economic services, including investment to improve productivity in agriculture and manufacturing. Improvements in poverty have been marginal, due to a number of factors: (i) lack of investment in infrastructure during the recovery and stabilization phase, to complement the reforms undertaken to improve the business environment; (ii) lack of investments in capacity, institutions, and land/water management in the agricultural sector; (iii) continued low use of inputs; (iv) instability within the region; (v) delays in Rwanda's accession to the East Africa Community (EAC); and (vi) a slower than expected pace of reform in key sectors such as the tea industry. The PRSP anticipated that growth in the agricultural sector will proceed with progressive commercialization, with ensuing demand for agricultural and non-agricultural goods and services in rural areas, resulting in increasing non-farm employment. -
Publication
Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery, Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 2, Overview
(Washington, DC, 2007-09)In 2006 most of the people of Uganda, with the notable exception of those in the conflict-blighted Northern Region, enjoy a better quality of life and brighter opportunities in a stable and growing economy. Uganda's economy has bounced back beyond what could be regarded as recovery, with real incomes per person now exceeding the levels reached at Independence in 1962. The report structure is as follows: volume one synthesizes the conclusions from analysis in Volume two. In Chapter 1 of Volume two, emphasis is placed on understanding what drove past growth at macro and sector levels, and in particular, on how Uganda's firms and farms have evolved. Chapter 2 continues the retrospective of past growth in agriculture, the most important sector of the economy. The report provides a comprehensive review of growth trends in agriculture, using several data sources. The chapter provides fresh insights on recent trends in poverty and inequality. Chapter 3 presents growth diagnosis and it identifies short-term actions to remove emerging constraints to present and near-term future growth. Chapter 4 models alternative future growth paths and the impact o f alternative public investments on growth using a SAM-based CGE model. The analysis reveals there is little to be gained from 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' for example fixing infrastructure by reducing education financing. Chapters 6 and 7 return to the short-term priorities to remove binding constraints to growth, and put meat on the actions identified in Chapter 3 as being required in the financial sector (Chapter 6) and in infrastructure (Chapter 7). Finally, Chapter 8 ends by assessing the scope for an externally financed scale up of infrastructure.