Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Sudan - The Road Toward Sustainable and Broad-Based Growth
(World Bank, 2009-12-01)This report proposes a growth strategy for Sudan that reduces its dependence on oil, while building an economic foundation for a diversified, inclusive and sustainable growth path. Specifically, Sudan's near term strategy should focus on: a) developing and maintaining the necessary enabling environment for growth, specifically macroeconomic stability and effective fiscal management (chapter one); b) implementing policies aimed at improving the investment climate and broadening private sector- led growth (chapters two and five); c) increasing returns to the agriculture sector as the highest potential engine of growth and poverty reduction over the medium-term (chapter four); d) developing a comprehensive reconstruction plan for the South (chapter six); and e) complementing technocratic reforms with good governance. -
Publication
Sudan - Toward Sustainable and Broad-Based Growth
(World Bank, 2009-12-01)Sudan is in the 10th year of its longest and strongest growth episode since independence, benefiting from the advent of oil in 1999. This report proposes a growth strategy for Sudan that reduces its dependence on oil, while building an economic foundation for a diversified, inclusive and sustainable growth path. Specifically, Sudan's near term strategy should focus on: a) developing and maintaining the necessary enabling environment for growth, specifically macroeconomic stability and effective fiscal management (chapter one); b) implementing policies aimed at improving the investment climate and broadening private sector-led growth (chapters two and five); c) increasing returns to the agriculture sector as the highest potential engine of growth and poverty reduction over the medium-term (chapter four); d) developing a comprehensive reconstruction plan for the South (chapter six); and e) complementing technocratic reforms with good governance. Sudan needs a new, more balanced growth vision that is less reliant on oil, while using the oil wealth to create an economic foundation for a diversified, inclusive, and sustainable growth path. -
Publication
Vietnam Planning Study on Investment in Provincial/Local ICT Infrastructure and Services
(Washington, DC, 2009-09-16)The Government of Vietnam acknowledges the benefits of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in its various applications, as a means to develop economic diversification, foster competitiveness, increase productivity, and improve the efficiency and capability of institutions on a governmental level. The increasing availability to information and communication technologies has improved citizens access to information across the different economical sectors. ICT is therefore considered as a crucial catalyst to poverty reduction through the facilitation of information flow between citizens, businesses, and the government. Furthermore, it is considered that ICT ensures a better allocation of resources, service delivery, and acts as a value-creator for poor populations through the creation of new sources of employment and income. The results of this study will provide basis for discussion between the World Bank and the Government on concrete steps regarding how the Bank's financial assistance can best meet the country's need and support the implementation of the Government's plans in this important area. This consultancy is being undertaken as an initial part of a larger technical assistance project whose overall objective is to support the Government of Vietnam in the improvement of its provincial/local telecommunications and information infrastructure and services; it is undertaken in the context of public administrative reforms and decentralization by analyzing options of sustainable implementation arrangements. -
Publication
Benin - Constraints to Growth and Potential for Diversification and Innovation : Country Economic Memorandum
(World Bank, 2009-06-18)With favorable geographical location, macroeconomic stability, debt reduction, progress on structural reforms, and political stability, Benin will seem to have the foundations for a dynamic, diversified economy. Yet the country's economic structure has not evolved, remaining highly dependent on cotton and transit trade, and per-capita growth has slowed down in recent years. The government has requested the World Bank's assistance in understanding the constraints to growth and evaluating the country's potential for diversification and innovation as it seeks to lead the country to emerging market status by 2020. The government is well aware that the vulnerabilities associated with the country's dependence on cotton and transit trade impede the attainment of this goal. Response to the government's request, the objective of the Benin Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is therefore to identify and analyze the key economic and institutional constraints to growth, including through diversification and innovation. The CEM contains four main chapters, each providing theoretical or empirical analyses of Benin's economic situation and prospects: a) cross-sectoral binding constraints to growth; b) analysis of specific constraints in the cotton and transit trade sectors; c) diversification and innovation potential; and d) political economy of growth. -
Publication
Cambodia - Sustaining Rapid Growth in a Challenging Environment : Country Economic Memorandum
(World Bank, 2009-01-01)Many countries succeed in generating high economic growth at some point in their history. But only a very few manage to sustain rapid growth for an extended period. Only such a prolonged period of rapid growth can have a significant impact on income per capita, and such an impact often brings with it many other important changes to people's lives. Cambodia has more than doubled its income per capita over the past decade, from US$285 in 1997 to US$593 in 2007. This doubling has been accompanied by the trappings of a profound structural transformation: integration into the global economy; a shift of jobs from agriculture to manufacturing; a demographic transition; and migration from rural to urban areas. Translating into jobs and better services, these outcomes have led to a significant reduction in poverty, as well as improvements in health and education. This report aims to contribute to policymakers' and citizens' thinking about growth in Cambodia in three ways: (i) it reviews the experience of the past decade and draws the Cambodia-specific lessons of this period; (ii) it sketches the major potential sources of growth with the aim of assessing the barriers to growth; and (iii) it outlines policy options for addressing these barriers. -
Publication
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Volume 2. Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues
(Washington, DC, 2008-04)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth, it has been recovering from crisis in 2001 and grew at 7.5 percent per year on average during 2002-2006. In addition, certain dimensions of public sector governance are instrumental in improving quality of life and promoting competitiveness in Turkey including, for example, food safety and environmental protection. Further strengthening of the legal framework and institutions fighting corruption could improve the investment climate, the efficiency of the public sector, and popular support to further reforms, and continuous macroeconomic stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for sustainable growth. Strong fiscal discipline and monetary policy have reduced chronic inflation to below 10 percent in 2005. Public debt has also been reduced and its sustainability has improved. Accordingly, the resilience of the Turkish economy to shocks has improved as demonstrated by the rapid recovery from turmoil in international markets in the summer of 2006 and, more recently, in the summer-autumn of 2007. -
Publication
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2008-04)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth, it has been recovering from crisis in 2001 and grew at 7.5 percent per year on average during 2002-2006. In addition, certain dimensions of public sector governance are instrumental in improving quality of life and promoting competitiveness in Turkey including, for example, food safety and environmental protection. Further strengthening of the legal framework and institutions fighting corruption could improve the investment climate, the efficiency of the public sector, and popular support to further reforms, and continuous macroeconomic stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for sustainable growth. Strong fiscal discipline and monetary policy have reduced chronic inflation to below 10 percent in 2005. Public debt has also been reduced and its sustainability has improved. Accordingly, the resilience of the Turkish economy to shocks has improved as demonstrated by the rapid recovery from turmoil in international markets in the summer of 2006 and, more recently, in the summer-autumn of 2007. -
Publication
Rwanda : Toward Sustained Growth and Competitiveness, Volume 1. Synthesis and Priority Measures
(Washington, DC, 2007-10-12)Rwanda established targets for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and poverty reduction, to be achieved by the year 2020; these were to (i) raise real per capita income from $230 to $900; and (ii) reduce the poverty incidence by half. To reach these targets, the Government projected in its 2002 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) that GDP growth will to be in the range of 6 to 7 percent over the medium term. The PRSP focused on six priority areas: (i) rural development and agricultural transformation; (ii) human development; (iii) economic infrastructure; (iv) good governance; (v) private sector development; and (vi) institutional capacity development. While increased spending in the social sectors led to substantial improvements in outcomes there has been only limited spending for economic services, including investment to improve productivity in agriculture and manufacturing. Improvements in poverty have been marginal, due to a number of factors: (i) lack of investment in infrastructure during the recovery and stabilization phase, to complement the reforms undertaken to improve the business environment; (ii) lack of investments in capacity, institutions, and land/water management in the agricultural sector; (iii) continued low use of inputs; (iv) instability within the region; (v) delays in Rwanda's accession to the East Africa Community (EAC); and (vi) a slower than expected pace of reform in key sectors such as the tea industry. The PRSP anticipated that growth in the agricultural sector will proceed with progressive commercialization, with ensuing demand for agricultural and non-agricultural goods and services in rural areas, resulting in increasing non-farm employment. -
Publication
Rwanda : Toward Sustained Growth and Competitiveness, Volume 2. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2007-10-12)Rwanda established targets for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and poverty reduction, to be achieved by the year 2020; these were to (i) raise real per capita income from $230 to $900; and (ii) reduce the poverty incidence by half. To reach these targets, the Government projected in its 2002 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) that GDP growth will to be in the range of 6 to 7 percent over the medium term. The PRSP focused on six priority areas: (i) rural development and agricultural transformation; (ii) human development; (iii) economic infrastructure; (iv) good governance; (v) private sector development; and (vi) institutional capacity development. While increased spending in the social sectors led to substantial improvements in outcomes there has been only limited spending for economic services, including investment to improve productivity in agriculture and manufacturing. Improvements in poverty have been marginal, due to a number of factors: (i) lack of investment in infrastructure during the recovery and stabilization phase, to complement the reforms undertaken to improve the business environment; (ii) lack of investments in capacity, institutions, and land/water management in the agricultural sector; (iii) continued low use of inputs; (iv) instability within the region; (v) delays in Rwanda's accession to the East Africa Community (EAC); and (vi) a slower than expected pace of reform in key sectors such as the tea industry. The PRSP anticipated that growth in the agricultural sector will proceed with progressive commercialization, with ensuing demand for agricultural and non-agricultural goods and services in rural areas, resulting in increasing non-farm employment. -
Publication
Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery, Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 2, Overview
(Washington, DC, 2007-09)In 2006 most of the people of Uganda, with the notable exception of those in the conflict-blighted Northern Region, enjoy a better quality of life and brighter opportunities in a stable and growing economy. Uganda's economy has bounced back beyond what could be regarded as recovery, with real incomes per person now exceeding the levels reached at Independence in 1962. The report structure is as follows: volume one synthesizes the conclusions from analysis in Volume two. In Chapter 1 of Volume two, emphasis is placed on understanding what drove past growth at macro and sector levels, and in particular, on how Uganda's firms and farms have evolved. Chapter 2 continues the retrospective of past growth in agriculture, the most important sector of the economy. The report provides a comprehensive review of growth trends in agriculture, using several data sources. The chapter provides fresh insights on recent trends in poverty and inequality. Chapter 3 presents growth diagnosis and it identifies short-term actions to remove emerging constraints to present and near-term future growth. Chapter 4 models alternative future growth paths and the impact o f alternative public investments on growth using a SAM-based CGE model. The analysis reveals there is little to be gained from 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' for example fixing infrastructure by reducing education financing. Chapters 6 and 7 return to the short-term priorities to remove binding constraints to growth, and put meat on the actions identified in Chapter 3 as being required in the financial sector (Chapter 6) and in infrastructure (Chapter 7). Finally, Chapter 8 ends by assessing the scope for an externally financed scale up of infrastructure.