Country Economic Memorandum

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2184

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The Union of Comoros Country Economic Memorandum: Boosting Growth for Greater Opportunities

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-14) World Bank

Comoros is at the crossroads to redefine its future and become an upper-middle income country by 2050, but this would require implementing an ambitious reform agenda that focuses on increasing productivity and private investment. The current business-as-usual policy framework has delivered low private investment and human capital, sectoral growth below potential, and no poverty eradication. Pursuing this policy framework, which would not allow Comoros to reach the GDP growth target of 7.5 percent by 2030 laid out in the national development plan, could result in GDP per capita of US$1,890 and a poverty rate of 22.9 percent by 2050. By contrast, under a policy framework of ambitious reforms that include measures to increase inclusiveness, Comoros could reach a GDP per capita of US$3,934 and reduce the poverty rate to below 5 percent by 2050. Supported by the continuous implementation of ambitious reforms, such a level of GDP per capita could have Comoros reach upper-middle-income status by 2050. Under this ambitious reform agenda, private investment would average 11.9 percent of GDP in 2023–2050, and total factor productivity growth would average 1.45 percentage points per year during the same period.
Kenya Country Economic Memorandum: Seizing Kenya’s Services Momentum

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-31) World Bank

Kenya’s economy has been growing solidly but maintaining and increasing growth will depend on increasing private investment and productivity. Between 2010 and 2019, Kenya maintained a steady annual growth rate of 5 percent and the economy was able to rebound relatively rapidly from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, productivity growth did not make much of a contribution to output growth, and growth has been lower than that of some other, fast-growing middle-income countries. This points to the potential for Kenya to increase growth via productivity gains, by expanding the role of the private sector and, especially, accelerating private investment. Doing this has become more urgent as the Government's fiscal space to invest has shrunk, making it crucial also for the sustainability of growth to identify new opportunities for the private sector to contribute. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) focuses on the question of how seizing opportunities in Kenya’s services sector can contribute more effectively to long-term economic growth. This report argues that growing the services sector should not be seen as an alternative to industrialization, but rather as an enabler of economy-wide growth, including in manufacturing, and in agriculture too. It focuses on five channels through which services contribute to jobs, economic transformation and inclusion: (i) the need to SHIFT the services sector to higher value-added activities; (ii) how to LINK services better to other economic activities to grow its enabling role; (iii) how to BOOST the productivity of the sector through technology and increasing competition; (iv) how to TRADE more services through removing regulatory barriers to trade and investment; and finally (v) how to SECURE people’s economic livelihoods better, especially those working in lower-skilled and economically more vulnerable services subsectors. Growing the contribution of services will require a program of structural reforms and complementary efforts.
Ethiopia’s Great Transition: The Next Mile - A Country Economic Memorandum

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-06-17) World Bank

Ethiopia’s rapid growth over the past two decades has resulted in a surge in income per capita levels, with the country approaching fast the middle-income milestone. Over the past decade, fast growth was driven by capital accumulation, but the extent to which this growth has been equally distributed is unclear. Public infrastructure spending accelerated dramatically in the first half of the 2010s, helping underpin fast economic growth. However, this approach seems to have had important shortcomings. Contrary to the findings of World Bank (2015) which examined an earlier period, total factor productivity (TFP) declined during 2011-2020, contributing negatively to growth. In addition, inequality at the household level increased between 2011 and 2016. Finally, macroeconomic imbalances have widened, a trend exacerbated by recent shocks. This report discusses the drivers of growth in Ethiopia and, in the absence of official subnational gross domestic product (GDP) figures, examines whether there has been convergence in economic activity at the subnational level.
Ghana Rising: Accelerating Economic Transformation and Creating Jobs

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-10) World Bank

Ghana has been a rising growth star and a beacon of hope in West Africa. Strong economic growth over the past two decades led to a near doubling of GDP per capita, lifting the country through the threshold for middle-income status in 2011. GDP per capita grew by an average of 3 percent per year over the past two decades, putting Ghana in the top ten fastest growing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A rising tide has tended to lift all boats. Poverty rates more than halved between 1998 and 2016, and the extreme poverty rate declined from 36.0 percent in 1991 to 8.2 percent in 2016. The net primary school enrollment rate rose from 62.5 percent in 2000 to 86.0 percent in 2019. This progress has motivated the government’s goal to lift the country to high-income status by 2057. The focus of this Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is to review options for Ghana to create enough higher quality jobs through economic transformation. Economic transformation, or inclusive productivity growth, occurs as people and resources shift from lower to higher productivity activities. It raises household incomes and living standards, thereby lifting people out of poverty. It can be achieved through the movement of workers and other resources between firms and sectors, or through workers staying within existing firms that benefit from within-firm productivity growth by adopting better technologies and capabilities.
Iraq Economic Monitor, Spring 2020: Navigating the Perfect Storm (Redux)

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05-04) World Bank

Iraq, once again, is facing a combination of acute shocks which the country is ill-prepared tomanage. The collapse in oil prices has considerably reduced budgetary revenues and reversed the fiscal surpluses accumulated since 2018. COVID-19, and the lockdown measures needed to contain the pandemic have dealt a severe blow to economic activities especially the services sectors like transport, trade, banking and religious tourism, which constitute around half of the non-oil economy. The growing discontent over poor service delivery, rising corruption, and lack of jobs persists and is coupled with political impasse over the formation of a new government. Iraq's pre-existing conditions going into this crisis limit its ability to manage and mitigate the socio-economic impact. A large dependency on oil revenues coupled with built-up budget rigiditieslimit Iraq's fiscal space to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak and offer a stimulus package to re-start the economy. An undiversified economy, highly dependent on oil outcomes, as well as large presence of the state in economic and commercial activities, make it hard to create the needed private sector jobs for a predominantly young population. Furthermore, rampant corruption and weak governance and service delivery fueled large scale protests across the country calling for better public service delivery and jobs. As a result, all signs indicate that this multifaceted crisis will have a protracted impact. The outlook for Iraq, which was already negative prior to the COVID-19 shock, has markedly worsened since. Near-term economic growth will be subdued by low oil prices, a new OPEC agreement that has reduced oil production quotas, and unfavorable global and domestic conditions including disruptions from COVID-19 spread. As a result, the economy is projected to contract by 9.7 percent in 2020, down from a real GDP growth of 4.4 percent in 2019, with both oil and non-oil sectors contracting by 13 and 4.4 percent respectively. This special focus on digital economy (DE) highlights the importance of digital transformation for Iraq and the urgency behind it. Iraq's economic condition was gradually improving following the deep economic strains of the last three years. However, the recent protests and unrest highlight the continued fragility of the country and the high priority of improving economic opportunities, particularly for youth. Leveraging the DE will help Iraq address some of its citizens' concerns as well as accelerate the achievement of its development objectives.
Turning Smallness into Uniqueness: Six Key Challenges to Unlock Sao Tome and Principe Growth’s Potential

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07-24) World Bank

Economic growth in Sao Tome and Príncipe (STP) has long been driven by an unsustainable reliance on public expenditures, especially grant- and loan-financed public investment. STP needs to turn its smallness into uniqueness to unlock its growth potential. To accomplish this transformation, this image must be matched by a more balanced growth in which the private sector plays a larger role and with a more effective government. Tourism, agriculture, and fisheries could drive the country’s transition to a more balanced growth pattern. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) highlights six key challenges that STP must overcome as it transitions to a more balanced growth pattern and it offers policy recommendations for addressing each challenge. Accomplishing this rebalancing will require STP to address six key challenges at the macroeconomic, structural, and sectoral level. These include: (i) The twin budget and current-account deficits; (ii) Weak trade connectivity by both air and sea; (iii) Credit constraints caused by a high level of non-performing loans and difficulties enforcing commercial contracts; (iv) Uncertainty surrounding property rights and land tenure; (v) Poor-quality infrastructure, especially in the energy and transportation sector; and (vi) The overexploitation of marine resources.
Firm Productivity and Economic Growth in Turkey

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-29) World Bank

Turkey’s pace of income convergence has globally been one of the most remarkable of the past fifteen years. Sustaining growth and improvements in living standards in Turkey will require higher productivity in the economy. The Turkey Productivity Report (2019) provides an in-depth analysis of firm productivity in Turkey and how this adds up to economic growth in the country. The report has six parts. The first two provide macro and micro diagnosis of productivity in the economy – what are the productivity trends, how have these affected economic growth, what firms in what industry are the most productive, and are they absorbing an increasing or decreasing share of resources? From here the report analyzes specific policy areas that might explain firm productivity dynamics in Turkey – namely firms’ integration in the global economy, access to innovation support, the quality of human capital, and the business environment including competition. The report finds that economic integration and innovation have boosted firm-level productivity, though reforms could further accelerate these positive impacts. Productivity gains could accelerate the demand for more educated and skilled workers. The growth of more productive firms could in turn also be accelerated through reforms that increase competition and reduce regulatory burden.
Uganda Country Economic Memorandum: Economic Diversification and Growth in the Era of Oil and Volatility

(World Bank, Kampala, Uganda, 2015-06) World Bank ; Government of Uganda

The objective of the Ugandan government is to make Uganda an upper - middle income country within thirty years. Economic diversification is a key component of that strategy. The country economic memorandum (CEM) report discusses how the emergence of oil and mineral production can contribute to Uganda’s effort to promote economic diversification as a means to achieve sustainable and shared growth. Based on the lessons from international experience, the report outlines the elements of a development and diversification strategy, which the Ugandan government may wish to consider in the design of its macroeconomic, fiscal, and sectoral development policies. It then focuses on the set of policies required to maximize the benefits of a diversification strategy in an oil-producing country. Finally it describes a series of actions which the government should plan, and carry out to deal with a number of specific implementation issues. The first part of the report focuses on the importance of economic diversification for Uganda and on the prospects and challenges of oil and mineral development. It addresses the following three issues: (a) why diversification is important for economic development?; (b) where Uganda stands in that area and why it should give a new impetus to its diversification strategy?; and (c) what are the prospects, possible impact, and challenges associated to oil and mining development for Uganda’s economy?
Leveraging Oil and Gas Industry for the Development of a Competitive Private Sector in Uganda

(Washington, DC, 2015-03-25) World Bank

The study represents a background study for the proposed Uganda Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), which seeks to address the issue of efficient use of oil resources and examine synergies between the oil industry and the rest of the economy, through growth poles or linkages. The oil industry can help Uganda to promote robust growth in the economy. However, it is important to keep in mind that it will take a number of years until oil revenues start flowing into Uganda s economy. After the Final Investment Decision (FID) is reached, it will take time to develop the oil fields and start oil production. In the meantime, there are immediate opportunities opening up for Uganda s businesses to supply the oil industry with goods and services. In most cases, Uganda s suppliers, especially micro, small and medium enterpises (MSMEs), are not expected to become first tier contractors to the International Oil Company (IOCs). The main objective of this study is to provide recommendations to the Government of Uganda (GoU) on policies and strategies of leveraging the oil discoveries for the development of the national economy in order to transform the oil resources into sustained growth. The study reviews the typology of policies for local sourcing used in the world. It includes ample examples of other countries experiences with developing their local content policies and providing support to priority sectors to boost local content which could be useful for Uganda from the standpoint of lessons learned. The study conducts a detailed analysis of the binding constraints faced by domestic oil and gas suppliers in Uganda, takes stock of existing national content support initiatives and identifies areas which are in urgent need of further support. The study examines how the oil sector can be used as a driver of agriculture and fisheries sectors in the Albertine Region and other regions of Uganda from the standpoint of food supply to the oil camps.