Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Tajikistan Country Economic Memorandum: Nurturing Tajikistan’s Growth Potential
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) analyzes a set of the critical constraints to domestic private sector-led and outward-oriented growth in Tajikistan, by examining the structural bottlenecks to private sector investment and exports. The report is selective in looking at key public policies needed to improve Tajikistan’s macroeconomic resilience and foster private sector development to ensure sustainable growth. This CEM should be seen as the first of a series of programmatic work intended to provide advisory support to the Tajik authorities over the medium-term as they update the National Development Strategy. The report focuses on two important areas of public policy: first, the role of the tax system in encouraging investment and entrepreneurship, examines the principal deficiencies in the tax regime and in its administration, and proposes reforms to improve the incentives for investment. Second, in view of the dominance of the state and of state-owned enterprises in the economy and regulatory gaps to ensure level playing field, the report analyzes the competition policy framework, with the aim of identifying policy reforms that will encourage firm entry and create a competitive market in goods and services. The two interrelated objectives – macroeconomic incentives for investment and savings and the domestic competition and tax regime - reinforce each other. The choice of the above thematic areas is guided by the team’s preliminary discussions with various stakeholders within the government and outside the government. The CEM builds on the World Bank’s previous reports on Tajikistan, namely on the Jobs Diagnostics and Systematic Country Diagnostics. The Jobs Diagnostics proposes the government to consider a jobs strategy based on the following three pillars: i) facilitate the creation of more jobs, particularly in the formal private sector; ii) improve the quality of existing jobs, especially in the informal sector; and iii) facilitate better access to jobs including transitions from inactivity to employment and from low to higher quality jobs, with a focus on vulnerable workers. The focus of the CEM is well aligned also with the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for 2019-23 currently in making. This report will be followed by analytical and policy work on other critical constraints to private sector-led growth: the establishment of a rules-based policy setting and creating market-supporting institutions that promote greater economic formalization; building upon areas of high potential for transformative change such as the financial strengths of the energy sector and macro-fiscal implications of investments to Rogun HPP; gains from deeper international integration and infrastructure access provided by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); and investing in human capital. This chapter of the CEM analyses the main causes of macro-fiscal vulnerabilities and suggests policy recommendations to improve resilience of the Tajik economy. -
Publication
Kazakhstan Reversing Productivity Stagnation: Country Economic Memorandum
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019)After experiencing exceptional economic growth in the 2000s, Kazakhstan’s economy has slowed sharply since the global financial crisis, putting development achievements at risk. The economic slowdown has been caused by sharply lower commodity prices, and structural degradation of the economy. Kazakhstan’s productivity growth has steadily fallen over the past two decades. Falling within-sector productivity improvements are the driving force behind Kazakhstan’s productivity slowdown. The private sector is significantly constrained and does not exhibit many important features of healthy private sectors worldwide. Empirical evidence suggests that business entry rates are relatively low in Kazakhstan, even controlling for the structure of economy. The evidence shows that new (and small) firms are more productive than older (and larger) firms. The corrosive patterns must be corrected to revive productivity, which is essential for higher economic growth - since higher investment cannot substitute for productivity growth in the long run. The first policy imperative is to level the playing field for all firms - well-connected or otherwise. The second policy is to strengthen the rule of law and to deal more aggressively and comprehensively with corruption. Third, the governments will need to introduce structural changes in the economy to boost private investment and reduce a disproportionately large role of the state in the economy. -
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Angola Country Economic Memorandum: Towards Economic Diversification
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-12-01)The Angolan economy is at a significant juncture. The current growth model based on oil wealth is nearly exhausted and has not delivered inclusive growth and shared prosperity. Angola faces two broad policy challenges that need to be addressed urgently: macroeconomic stabilization and a more inclusive economic growth. The internal and external imbalances following the adjustment to lower oil prices pose a challenge to macro-stabilization. The prospect of volatile oil prices and potentially diminishing oil reserves over the medium and long-term call for a new sustainable and inclusive growth model that promotes economic diversification, a model that is less dependent on natural resource exports. The new administration is aware of these challenges and has started to implement much needed reforms. Angola is right to focus on reforms that lay the foundation for long-term macroeconomic stability and economic diversification. Analyses conducted as part of this report indicate that there are significant gains to be had from such reforms. The objective of this report on Angola is to support policy makers in their reform efforts. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 takes stock of recent trends and determinants of growth in Angola, highlighting the importance of natural resource wealth and volatility for growth outcomes. Chapter 2 presents the findings of a growth diagnostic for Angola, and highlights low human capital, access to finance, weak institutions and macroeconomic instability as critical and binding constraints for the non-oil economy. Chapter 3 uses product space analysis to evaluate Angola’s current and future potential for economic and export diversification, drawing attention to products and services sectors in which there is potential for export upgrading and/or product innovation. Chapter 4 provides an overview of the agriculture sector and assesses its potential for economic diversification. Chapter 5 sets out the way forward, identifying: critical reforms for macroeconomic stability; a fiscal framework for natural-resource wealth management; and macro-financial stability. -
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Climbing Higher: Toward a Middle-Income Nepal
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05-01)Nepal's recent history of development is marred by a paradox. Many countries in the world have experienced rapid growth but modest poverty reduction, as income has increasingly concentrated in the hands of the wealthy. Nepal, however, has the opposite problem-modest growth but brisk poverty reduction. The country has halved the poverty rate in just seven years and witnessed an equally significant decline in income inequality. Yet, Nepal remains one of the poorest and slowest-growing economies in Asia, with its per capita income rapidly falling behind its regional peers and unable to achieve its long-standing ambition to graduate from low-income status. -
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Lessons from Poland, Insights for Poland: A Sustainable and Inclusive Transition to High Income Status
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017)This report discusses Poland’s experience along five dimensions. These five dimensions - a pentagon of policies and institutions are governing, sustaining, connecting, growing, and including. The main lessons from Poland and the key insights for its future, based on this pentagon, are presented in the lessons and insights summarized in this report. Poland’s experience underlines the importance of a shared vision to sustain continuing reforms. Poland’s rapid economic ascent created new challenges: the creative destruction on which the growth process was based, successfully, caused massive social change. The report addresses two sets of questions. First, what are the lessons from Poland’s remarkable transition to high income?; what policies were behind Poland’s economic achievements?; why was Poland able to achieve high-income per capita so fast, while many other countries remained in the upper-middle-income range for decades - trapped middle-income countries (MICs)?; what policies were similar to those pursued by other new high income countries (HICs) and what were specific to Poland?, and second, what are the insights for Poland going forward? Given international experience and Poland’s characteristics, what policies can it adopt to continue its ascent and reach the much higher incomes of countries that have been high income for a considerable period - the established HICs? -
Publication
Cameroon Country Economic Memorandum: Markets, Public Administration, and Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-12)To become an upper-middle income country by 2035, as targeted in its Vision 2035 document, Cameroon will have to increase productivity and unleash the potential of its private sector. Specifically, Cameroon’s real GDP must grow by around 8 percent and 5.7 percent in per capita terms over 2015–2035, which in turn will require the investment share of GDP to increase from around 20 percent of GDP in 2015 to 30 percent of GDP in 2035 and productivity growth to reach 2 percent over the same period, from its average rate of zero growth over the past decade. These are daunting yet doable challenges. To make it happen the public sector would need to reinvent itself and change its nature: reduce distortion, promote innovation and increase allocative efficiency; and more competitive markets would be needed to promote productivity gains. Based on the rigorous analysis of the Cameroonian economy using five main sources of data,1 the report will address the following topics: Chapter 1 analyzes constraints to growth, Chapter 2 explores constraints to enhance competitiveness, Chapter 3 examines the role played by the Cameroonian state on these constraints, and Chapter 4 derives from these analyses a set of actionable policy recommendations. The abstract contains the following structure: 1. Underpinnings of Cameroonian economy affecting growth potential 2. Recommendations on nine major areas of collaboration between the government and the private sector. -
Publication
Kenya Country Economic Memorandum: From Economic Growth to Jobs and Shared Prosperity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03-01)The Kenya CEM has five main messages. First, Kenya has performed well in the past decade in terms of economic growth, and modern services are behind the acceleration of growth. Expansion in these services, such as financial intermediation and mobile communications have stimulated demand for other services such as trade. The CEM discusses how to maximize the potential of services, especially given that most formal, high quality jobs are created in this sector. Second, agriculture, which still contributes to over a quarter of the economy, and manufacturing have stagnated. The CEM discusses the reasons behind this stagnation, noting that agriculture and manufacturing have not been able to create enough jobs for Kenya's growing working age population. Most of the jobs are created by the informal economy and are concentrated in low productivity segments of trade, hospitality, and jua kali. Improving the ease of doing business is one way towards job creation and higher productivity. However there is still a need for creating job opportunities for the rural poor, for poverty reduction and achieving shared prosperity. Reviving agriculture, in particular, remains the pathway for poverty reduction. Third, accelerating growth to meet Kenya's development goals requires technological advances and innovation that raise firms' productivity. Fourth, achieving rapid growth will require macroeconomic stability to boost investment and savings. And as the government strives to build Kenya's energy and transport infrastructure, this needs to be complemented with improvements in the public investment management process and better execution. Fifth, the discovery of oil opens a possibility for raising Kenya's growth. Kenya's recent oil discoveries, if used prudently, can contribute to achieving the Vision 2030 goals. The World Bank Group is proud of its long-standing relationship with Kenya, and looks forward to continuous collaboration with both National and County Governments and other partners. Working together, Kenya can realize its potential to lift millions of families out of poverty and achieve shared prosperity. -
Publication
Sudan Country Economic Memorandum: Realizing the Potential for Diversified Development
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09-30)From 1999 to 2011 Sudan had a period where it benefited from extensive discoveries of natural wealth through oil. But the oil economy had also clear symptoms of Dutch disease. Agriculture suffered from neglect, and there were urgent calls to invest natural resource rents into economic diversification efforts. Relief to Sudan’s external debt crisis will be critical. The country economic memorandum (CEM) starts out with a series of simulations and a review of recent key literature on growth and diversification with the aim of defining a suitable approach for growth and diversification for Sudan. The sectoral structure of Sudan’s economy shows the growing importance of agriculture, less importance of extractives, and relative stability of other sectors (manufacturing, services) by 2030. Looking at other economies that were successful in their diversification efforts shows that they were able to broaden their endowments base by maximizing a triad of institutions to deliver services that ultimately increase productivity. The CEM finds that there is a case for Sudan to approach growth through diversification from two angles: the production and the endowment base, both of which rely on the effective utilization of key institutions. This analysis therefore uses a sectoral focus and looks at agriculture as sources for diversification, but also makes the case that trading of goods and services - especially of the higher value-added kind - can be a means to grow the endowment base of the country.