Country Economic Memorandum

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2184

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Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum: Technical Paper 2. Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods, and Urbanization - Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-09) Jedwab, Remi; Haslop, Federico; Masaki, Takaaki; Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos
There is a vast economic literature studying the effects of climate change on long-run growth, migration, urbanization, and human capital, among several other outcomes. The paper is structured as follows: Section 3.2 dives into some of the physical characteristics of Lake Chad and its water sources. Section 3.3 introduces our novel data. Section 3.4 presents the hypothesis and empirical strategy behind our analysis. Sections 3.5, 3.6 and 3.7 present results on total population, cities and roads, respectively. Finally, section 3.8 concludes.
Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum: Technical Paper 5. Conflict and Climate Change in the Lake Chad Region
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-09) Fisker, Peter; Fisker, Peter
Peace and security are basic conditions for economic and social development. Conflict, on the other hand, can reverse years of economic growth and induce long-term harm on almost all aspects of development. For the past decade, the Lake Chad region has been the setting of conflicts between government forces and armed groups, most notably the Boko Haram. Although the intensity of fighting has petered off in recent years, the conflict has spread from Northern Nigeria and now affects all four countries of the region. Due to the paramount importance of avoiding armed conflict, a large economic literature exists that seeks to find explanations for the onset and prevalence of conflict in developing countries. Blattman and Miguel [2010] list some of the most common theories of conflict including competition for resources, economic grievances, and the possibility of looting. This paper attempts to shed light on the geographical distribution of conflict and its climatic determinants in the Lake Chad region following a sub-national approach where readily available spatial data is employed at two different units of aggregation: Firstly, 90 second level administrative areas, and secondly, around 5,318 grid cells covering the same region. Exposure to conflict is here defined as the intensity (for districts) or incidence (for cells) of conflict in a given unit each year. Parts of the population may not be directly exposed by this definition, but since the units of analysis are relatively small, most will be affected in some ways, for instance by safety concerns when visiting the nearest towns to trade or by the general economic consequences.
Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum: Development for Peace
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-09) Granguillhome, Rogelio; Hernandez, Marco; Lach, Samantha; Masaki, Takaaki; Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos
This report sheds light on the interlocked long-term territorial development challenges and the recently realized systemic risks affecting the Lake Chad region. It summarizes the findings of seven technical papers, each investigating different aspects of the interlinked challenges faced by the region. These studies are accompanied by complementary research on labor market and geospatial socioeconomic trends, as well as by a review of the thin literature on economic development across the region. In addition to presenting the main results of the technical papers, the report positions the findings in the broader context of an analytical framework depicting the feedback mechanisms between the region’s territorial development gaps and the self-reinforcing link to shocks, namely, violent conflict and climate change. This analytical framework is presented in Section 1.2. The rest of the report is structured as follows. Section 1.3 describes the main social and economic trajectories in the region. It reviews long-term demographic trends, suggesting. Section 1.4 argues that the low-growth, high-poverty equilibrium observed in the region is closely linked to the region’s economic geography. Section 1.5 discusses how the impact of climatic variation and violent conflict experienced in the region interlink with and exacerbate the territorial development challenges. Section 1.6 presents policy directions structured around four crosscutting themes: infrastructure, trade, governance, and natural resource management. The crosscutting nature of these themes encourages the exploration of potential synergies across challenge areas. The discussion in the section aims to inform policy-making efforts to strengthen territorial development and mitigate the impacts of conflict and climate change. Such endeavors can increase the likelihood of breaking free from the self-reinforcing negative mechanisms and boost the potential return of the region to a path of stability and inclusive economic development.
Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 15: Blue Economy and Environmental Resiliency
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26) de Fountalbert, Charlotte; Desramaut, Nicolas; Devine, Peter
Oceans are an important source of wealth, at least 3 to 5 percent of global GDP is derived from the oceans, but their overall health is reaching a tipping point. Close to a third of fish stocks are fully fished or overfished, climate change is impacting coastal and marine ecosystems through a variety of vectors, unbridled development in the coastal zone is causing erosion, widespread desalination in semi enclosed seas is threatening fauna and flora alike, and marine pollution, particularly from land-based sources is reaching such a proportion that its impacts cannot even be accurately measured. The role of healthy oceans in stabilizing climate and keeping the planet cool is now better understood, and increasingly given the prominence and visibility it deserves in the global action arena. It is also known that business as usual in the different economic sectors associated with coastal and marine ecosystems will have great environmental and social impacts, which are expected to disproportionally affect vulnerable groups of the population, particularly women and girls. This is reflected in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 - Life Below Water, which calls to conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development. In this context, the concept of the Blue Economy is particularly relevant and applicable to STP. Different institutions have different definitions of the Blue Economy, which is understood by the Bank as the sustainable and integrated development of oceanic sectors in healthy oceans. There is growing recognition that overfishing, marine pollution, and coastal erosion, among other issues, are pushing oceans to a tipping point to the detriment of the millions who depend on healthy oceans for jobs, nutrition, economic growth, and climate regulation. Central to the Blue Economy approach is the recognition that social benefits should be maximized over the long-term, ensuring that the economic drivers that result from the sustainable use of ocean resources are maintained.
Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start, Summary
(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12) World Bank
After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.