Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Leveraging Global Value Chains for growth in Turkey: A Turkey Country Economic Memorandum
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-02)Turkey saw phenomenal growth in the 2000s as economic reforms ushered in FDI, GVCs expanded, and productivity increased. The early 2000s saw Turkey exit from major economic crisis with a strengthened fiscal framework, a strengthened, inflation-targeting mandate for the Central Bank, the establishment of an independent bank regulator, and importantly, a recently agreed Customs Union agreement with the EU. From 2001 to 2017, incomes per capita in Turkey doubled in real terms and tripled in current dollar terms. Turkey transformed from a lower-middle-income country (LMIC) at the start of the 2000s to very nearly reaching high-income status by 2014. This drove a rapid fall in poverty from above 30 percent to just 9 percent1. Very few other countries matched Turkey’s growth over this period, and almost all of them were new EU member states. -
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Poland Country Economic Memorandum: The Green Transformation in Poland – Opportunities and Challenges for Economic Growth
(Washington, DC, 2022)Poland’s economic development story is one of success: since the early 1990s, the country has transitioned to a market economy, integrated into the European Union economy and global supply chains and sustained robust growth, avoiding the middle-income trap and increasing the resilience of its economy. Poland has sustained strong growth over the past three decades, making substantial advances in converging towards the European Union (EU-27) average per capita income, although there is still a considerable gap in both productivity and income convergence when compared with aspirational peers. Poland successfully transitioned to an EU-integrated market economy, moving from upper middle-income to high-income status in less than a decade and a half. Its economy underwent a deep structural transformation, supported by cost-competitiveness, and is now well-diversified and more resilient to shocks. Long-term growth has been supported by increased total factor productivity (TFP), grounded in efficiency gains, although capital accumulation has remained the main contributor to growth. While capital deepening did occur, investments in Information Communication and Technology (ICT) and in intangible assets that have high growth potential lagged those of peers. A skilled labor force has contributed more to growth in the case of Poland than it did in peer countries. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, has resulted in important learning losses, as observed throughout the world, and together with reversals in education reforms in recent years could weigh down on labor quality and productivity in the future.COVID-19 -
Publication
Removing Regulatory Barriers to Competition
(Washington, DC, 2021-11)Competition can drive productivity growth in Kosovo, especially in the context of the post-Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) recovery. As the economy rebuilds, it is key that markets function smoothly, and that anticompetitive firm behavior or government intervention do not constrain the path to recovery. Competitive product markets can help a country recover from economic shocks more quickly. Competition in product markets can also prop-up economic recovery in a more inclusive way for the poorest households. Kosovo has made significant progress towards pro-competition regulation of product markets but there is still significant room for improvement. Although the product market regulation (PMR) indicators are limited in scope and should therefore be considered as an entry point for further analysis, this assessment allows to identify potential constraints to competition and possible policy reforms. Kosovo can increase competition by: (a) eliminating public owned enterprise (POE) - related barriers to competition to ensure a level playing field for private and public operators in markets where they compete, (b) improving the regulatory process and facilitating business registration to boost market entry, and (c) introducing policy reforms in network sectors and professional services to eliminate regulatory barriers to competition and avoid anticompetitive practices. -
Publication
Mozambique - Country Economic Memorandum: Reigniting Growth for All
(Washington, DC, 2021-10)Mozambique has experienced rapid growth for over two decades. Growth accelerated remarkably following the end of the civil war, averaging 7.9 percent over 1993-2015, among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, growth decelerated sharply following the hidden debt crisis in 2016, which led to a crisis of economic governance and a protracted economic slowdown, with growth falling to 3 percent in 2016-2019. The growth slowdown has been further exacerbated by the natural disasters in 2019, the insurgency in Northern Mozambique, escalating since 2017, and the global pandemic since 2020. Mozambique’s existing growth strategy has been limited in its capacity to generate productive jobs and support accelerated poverty reduction. However, the discovery of some of the largest natural gas (LNG) reserves in the world is expected to provide Mozambique with a transformative opportunity for sustained and inclusive growth. The Mozambique Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) assesses Mozambique’s current growth model and presents a set of recommendations to: (i) make the best use of the non-renewable natural resource revenues, which includes putting in place an adequate policy and institutional framework well ahead of the revenue windfalls from the LNG sector; and (ii) promote growth in non-extractive sectors, accompanied by spatial transformation, and improved agricultural productivity. The report consists of five chapters. Chapter one provides an overview of Mozambique’s current growth model, asking what’s driving growth and outlining why this model needs rethinking. Chapter two provides analysis of the potential impact of Mozambique’s resource boom on GDP, exports, revenue, and employment, and discusses how to make good use of the opportunities and manage the associated risks. Chapter three tells Mozambique’s growth story from a spatial perspective. It constructs a unique district-by-district sectoral GDP database to identify the main growth nodes in Mozambique and understand why there is a weak link between growth and poverty reduction. The services sector is the subject of chapter four, exploring how to overcome bottlenecks to deliver on its potential to drive growth in Mozambique. Chapter five continues this theme, examining the challenges posed to private sector growth by weak governance and rising corruption. All five chapters make policy recommendations for the way forward. -
Publication
Albania Country Economic Memorandum: Strengthening the Sustainability of Albania’s Growth Model
(Washington, DC, 2021-09)Albania is gradually emerging from the unprecedented economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. As the pandemic is overcome, it is crucial to shift attention back to Albania’s long-term objective of building a stronger underlying economic growth model. This country economic memorandum (CEM) highlights 4 key priorities to help Albania identify the next steps in its structural reform agenda. Albania needs to refocus attention on the pre-crisis reform agenda and accelerate long-term economic growth, including by spurring productivity growth, building human capital, and supporting investment. On the labor supply side, this means investing in people and supporting workers’ transition to better employment (Priority 1), while on the labor demand side, this means accelerating firm productivity growth and creating better job opportunities (Priority 2). But Albania should also use the current crisis to set its aspirations higher. Beyond achieving higher economic growth, policymakers need to strengthen the quality of the country’s socioeconomic development model. Through more green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID), Albania can ensure the sustainability of economic growth (Priority 3). Foundationally, this CEM highlights the need for Albania to create fiscal space to support its growth priorities (Priority 4). The COVID-19 crisis has driven public debt to new heights, and upgrading Albania’s growth model - including by implementing many of the reforms presented in this CEM - will require further public spending. -
Publication
Côte d’Ivoire - Country Economic Memorandum: Sustaining the Growth Acceleration
(Washington, DC, 2021-04)The Ivorian economy needs to sustain its growth momentum. During the last decade, Côte d’Ivoire’s growth performance has been impressive. To achieve its ambitious goal of reaching emerging market status within one or two generations, however, it needs to maintain the strong growth for many years to come. Fewer than 15 countries have managed to sustain high growth for over 25 years in the postwar period, and their experience has shown that increasing productivity is at the heart of it. To follow in their footsteps, Ivorian growth also needs to be more inclusive and reduce structural imbalances, including the gap between the economic capital, Abidjan, and the rest of the country. This report addresses this question. -
Publication
Boosting Export Performance
(Washington, DC, 2021)Improving Kosovo’s export competitiveness can help to catalyze growth and reduce poverty. As a small economy, Kosovo will benefit from integration, both globally and regionally, to exploit scale economies from access to a larger market. Higher exports will not only contribute to growth and lower current account deficits but can also help heighten productivity due to more innovation and learning by exporting. Exporting firms, which are more competitive, will also be able to create better jobs and economic opportunities for Kosovars. This background note examines export dynamics in Kosovo over the period 2010-19, benchmarking Kosovo against relevant comparator countries. It overviews Kosovo’s trade structure, export dynamics at the firm level, trade policy and regulatory framework, and constraints to trade in goods and services and identifies policy options for consolidating trade growth in growing sectors. The note also spotlights digitalization and digital trade. It analyzes the enabling environment and suggests policies to enhance digital connectivity, improve the regulatory environment for digital trade, and encourage the use of e-payments.