Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Georgia : Agricultural and Rural Enterprise Development
(Washington, DC, 2009-12)The report is structured as follows. Section one examines the contribution of the rural economy to the national economy, the structure of the farm and non-farm sectors and their relative importance. Section two describes policies and constraints affecting the wider rural economy including, reforms in macro-economic management, recent external influences and financial services before discussing those which relate specifically to agriculture including, agricultural trade policy, land reform, agricultural machinery services , irrigation and drainage, seeds, sanitary and phytosanitary control and veterinary services, marketing and advisory services. Section three assesses the outcomes of these policies on the structure and performance of the rural economy. Section four describes the extent to which policy makers should prioritize the farm and non-farm sectors in rural areas and then presents recommendations for reform. While it is recognized that rural infrastructure (roads, potable water, and energy) and rural social services have a major impact on the rural economy, the report does not attempt to address these issues in detail. Rural Infrastructure issues are examined in 'rural infrastructure in Georgia, improving service delivery' (World Bank, 2006) and key findings of this report are summarized at the end of section two. -
Publication
Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2, Annexes
(Washington, DC, 2008-12)The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows, putting the need to follow an adequate foreign exchange management policy at the center of the agenda and, thus, minimize its possible negative impact on exports. The second part will focus on the issue of private sector promotion. Recent diagnoses of Madagascar's economy and the strategy adopted by Malagasy authorities (with the support of its development partners) have shown that to be sustained and shared out over time, economic growth will have to rely on a dynamic and competitive private sector. The third part is dedicated to sharing the fruits of economic growth by giving a special emphasis to the distribution of the benefits related to the large mining and tourism investment projects within the population. These large projects represent a unique opportunity for Madagascar's development but also undoubtedly a danger if they do not allow the emergence of spillover effects among the local businesses and labor force. Finally, the fourth and final part proposes an agenda of economic reforms. Ambition is not to formulate a patchy list of proposals, but rather to propose a series of options that will help address the issues of competitiveness and shared growth that are central to the success of the current strategy followed by the Malagasy authorities. -
Publication
Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1, Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2008-12)The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows, putting the need to follow an adequate foreign exchange management policy at the center of the agenda and, thus, minimize its possible negative impact on exports. The second part will focus on the issue of private sector promotion. Recent diagnoses of Madagascar's economy and the strategy adopted by Malagasy authorities (with the support of its development partners) have shown that to be sustained and shared out over time, economic growth will have to rely on a dynamic and competitive private sector. The third part is dedicated to sharing the fruits of economic growth by giving a special emphasis to the distribution of the benefits related to the large mining and tourism investment projects within the population. These large projects represent a unique opportunity for Madagascar's development but also undoubtedly a danger if they do not allow the emergence of spillover effects among the local businesses and labor force. Finally, the fourth and final part proposes an agenda of economic reforms. Ambition is not to formulate a patchy list of proposals, but rather to propose a series of options that will help address the issues of competitiveness and shared growth that are central to the success of the current strategy followed by the Malagasy authorities. -
Publication
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2008-04)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth, it has been recovering from crisis in 2001 and grew at 7.5 percent per year on average during 2002-2006. In addition, certain dimensions of public sector governance are instrumental in improving quality of life and promoting competitiveness in Turkey including, for example, food safety and environmental protection. Further strengthening of the legal framework and institutions fighting corruption could improve the investment climate, the efficiency of the public sector, and popular support to further reforms, and continuous macroeconomic stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for sustainable growth. Strong fiscal discipline and monetary policy have reduced chronic inflation to below 10 percent in 2005. Public debt has also been reduced and its sustainability has improved. Accordingly, the resilience of the Turkish economy to shocks has improved as demonstrated by the rapid recovery from turmoil in international markets in the summer of 2006 and, more recently, in the summer-autumn of 2007. -
Publication
Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery : Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 1. Summary and Recommendations
(Washington, DC, 2007-09)In 2006 most of the people of Uganda, with the notable exception of those in the conflict-blighted Northern Region, enjoy a better quality of life and brighter opportunities in a stable and growing economy. Uganda's economy has bounced back beyond what could be regarded as recovery, with real incomes per person now exceeding the levels reached at Independence in 1962. The report structure is as follows: volume one synthesizes the conclusions from analysis in Volume two. In Chapter 1 of Volume two, emphasis is placed on understanding what drove past growth at macro and sector levels, and in particular, on how Uganda's firms and farms have evolved. Chapter 2 continues the retrospective of past growth in agriculture, the most important sector of the economy. The report provides a comprehensive review of growth trends in agriculture, using several data sources. The chapter provides fresh insights on recent trends in poverty and inequality. Chapter 3 presents growth diagnosis and it identifies short-term actions to remove emerging constraints to present and near-term future growth. Chapter 4 models alternative future growth paths and the impact o f alternative public investments on growth using a SAM-based CGE model. The analysis reveals there is little to be gained from 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' for example fixing infrastructure by reducing education financing. Chapters 6 and 7 return to the short-term priorities to remove binding constraints to growth, and put meat on the actions identified in Chapter 3 as being required in the financial sector (Chapter 6) and in infrastructure (Chapter 7). Finally, Chapter 8 ends by assessing the scope for an externally financed scale up of infrastructure. -
Publication
Senegal : Looking for Work - The Road to Prosperity, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2007-09)This economic study comprises four parts. Part one analyzes the economic performance of Senegal with a view to understanding how an efficient labor market is an essential (but not sufficient) condition for achieving sustained and shared growth. This section focuses on the role of the labor market in (i) promoting a virtuous circle between economic growth and poverty reduction through equitable distribution of earned income (which is the main source of income for the Senegalese population, accounting for up to 3/4 of total resources, according to the results of the first household survey ESAM-I); and (ii) creating a competitive and dynamic private sector, as the wage bill accounts for a predominant share of the costs of Senegalese companies. The second part of the study focuses on the perspective of companies motivated by the objective of maximizing labor productivity to become as competitive as possible. The third part of the study presents the perspective of workers or that of the search for job security. The objective is to examine in detail whether the labor market is capable, not only of offering jobs to the majority of the population, but also whether this job provides sufficient income and conditions that allow workers to live free of poverty. The fourth and final part will summarize lessons learned from the previous parts. -
Publication
Nigeria - Competitiveness and Growth : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Executive Summary
(Washington, DC, 2007-05)The theme of this report is Nigeria's competitiveness and growth. This report consequently focuses on constraints, opportunities and strategic choices associated with increasing productivity and growth of the Nigerian economy on a sustained basis. Its objective is not to present a "blueprint" for Nigeria's growth but rather to raise issues and provide some options for the consideration of policy makers and other Nigerian stakeholders. The report is structured in four main sections. The first section analyzes Nigeria's growth history, examines the recent growth pick up and assesses its sustainability. The second section analyses how the critical constraints to competitiveness and growth may be addressed. The third section discusses how trade -domestic and external - can be used more effectively to drive growth and poverty reduction. The final chapter provides policy conclusions and suggestions on what could be key elements of a growth agenda for Nigeria. The analysis in this report suggests the following key elements for a growth strategy for Nigeria: 1) Strengthening actions to tackle the most immediate constraints to the competitiveness of the economy presented by infrastructure and the business environment; 2) Using domestic trade more effectively to enhance productivity and competitiveness by strengthening their functioning, and building stronger linkages between the oil and non-oil sectors, and over time strengthening Nigeria's integration into global markets; 3) Ensuring that the poor can participate more fully in growth by placing urgent emphasis on (i) finding ways to give back some of the proceeds of oil windfall directly to Nigerians; (ii) raising agricultural productivity-including through enhanced technology; and (iii) encouraging the transition from informality to the formal sector; and 4) Building the human capital and technological base of the economy over the longer term. -
Publication
Albania - Sustaining Growth Beyond the Transition : A World Bank Country Economic Memorandum
(Washington, DC, 2004-12-27)While Albania 's performance has been impressive, there are concerns about the sustainability of high rates of economic growth in the future. The evidence from the growth accounting exercise indicates that total factor productivity growth from post-transition reallocation is gradually coming to an end. At the same time, the contribution of capital accumulation has only picked up modestly. This suggests that in order to sustain high GDP growth going forward, Albania must seek to raise its investment and, secondary school enrollment rates, increase the degree of trade integration, and improve institutional quality (governance). Worryingly, total factor productivity growth has slowed significantly in recent years while the contribution of factor accumulation was negligible. Neither remittances nor earnings from illegal activities constitute a solid basis for long-term economic development. There are signs, already, of a decelerating trend in the level of remittances. Furthermore, there are concerns about the financing of the country's investment needs over the medium term. The likelihood that Albania's access to concessional financing sources will decline, as well as expectations for dwindling external support and inflows from abroad, presents major risk factors that must be mitigated with the help of the donor community. -
Publication
Serbia and Montenegro : An Agenda for Economic Growth and Employment
(Washington, DC, 2004-12-06)Upon resumption of its transition to a market economy in late-2000, Serbia made good initial progress across a range of areas. This progress began from a very difficult starting point which reflected the legacy of a decade of isolation, conflict, and poor economic management. However, deep structural weaknesses remain. Growth rates of around 4 percent per year will not suffice to produce a rapid convergence of living standards towards historical levels. Moreover, the positive elements of Serbia's recent performance are not sustainable without further adjustment and sustained reform. This report analyzes Serbia's recent performance and near-term reform priorities, in five areas which are particularly important for growth and employment creation. Eight themes emerge as the key reform priorities for enhancing growth and employment generation in Serbia: enhanced political stability and improved governance are key prerequisites for sustained growth; reduction of the public sector, thus reducing spending and fiscal burdens; promotion of export development, addressing the anti-export bias, through adequate institutional framework, tariff reform, and a strong trade policy; completion of enterprises and banks privatization; enhanced financial discipline and competitiveness; enabling an improved business environment; foster an enhanced, flexible formal labor market; enhance quality of, and access to education and training. The report demonstrates in great detail the outlined package of substantial and permanent fiscal adjustment, and sustained progress in structural reform, in order to generate the higher investment rates and a more competitive economy which can prod sustainable growth, and improved living standards over the medium-term. Such policies need to be implemented with urgency and unwavering commitment. -
Publication
Zambia - Country Economic Memorandum : Policies for Growth and Diversification, Volume 2. Annexes
(Washington, DC, 2004-10-20)In October 1991 Zambia moved to a multiparty democratic system. In the following years, the government implemented a number of policy and structural reforms, liberalizing exchange and interest rates, simplifying the tariff structure, and removing quantitative restrictions on trade, privatizing most state-owned enterprises, and substantially withdrawing from the agriculture sector. Despite these reforms, economic growth has remained lackluster, and poverty and social conditions have worsened. There are however, hopeful signs that increased growth and poverty reduction are within reach in Zambia. The country's economy has long been tied to the copper industry, whose purchasing power has been in decline for decades. But declining copper prices were not the only reasons Zambia's economic performance declined between 1991 and 2002. Excluding the one-time disruption in real sector activity in 1994-95, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3 percent during 1991-2002. The report argues that estimates puts its annual long-term growth potential at about 5 percent, implying per capita income growth of 2.5-3.0 percent a year, and, the reason why its potential is not being achieved, lies in several key problems, namely macroeconomic mismanagement, lack of ownership of reform and poor policy implementation, a weak investment climate, lack of good governance, and, the HIV/AIDS pandemic. And further asserts that central to the lack of macroeconomic stability - in particular to the high inflation and real interest rate - is the lack of fiscal control and commitment to fiscal discipline. Zambia's large external and rising domestic debt, combined with budgetary dependence on external financing, has constrained the government's ability to exert monetary control to achieve macroeconomic stability. The financial sector must become more efficient and capable of supporting private investment and growth. Key institutional and policy issues for immediate attention are creating a mechanism to resolve the debt of failed banks and state-owned non-bank financial institutions; upgrading the human and technological resources of financial system regulators and supervisors; improving access to financial services, in particular rural financial services; and, investing in financial system infrastructure to improve market data, and accounting and auditing standards. The report expands on the country's opportunities in the mining sector, particularly copper, but also on its rich reserves of gemstone minerals, as an opportunity for export diversification; in the manufacturing sector, specifically textiles, garments, and processed foods; and, in tourism development.