Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Azerbaijan - Country Economic Memorandum : A New Silk Road - Export-led Diversification
(World Bank, 2009-12-23)Azerbaijan's oil and gas boom presents a rare opportunity to accelerate improvements in the quality of life of all its citizens. Its per capita income is $5,100 in 2008, up nearly 400 percent from 2004 in current USD terms; it could potentially exceed $6,500 by 2013 and higher beyond that. Consequently, poverty is likely to continue to fall, especially in the rural areas, and the entire population of nearly nine million can expect to benefit significantly from expanded access to better quality education and health services as well as more targeted social assistance. Most of this income growth is expected to come from non-oil output and exports, especially agriculture and light manufacturing, though high levels of oil revenues and public spending will continue to stimulate significant growth of construction and various services sectors. Fiscal revenues from oil and gas are expected to be $198 billion in net present value terms through 2024 (based on the oil production profile of June 2008). This report outlines changes in policies and institutions that will be needed to realize this vision. -
Publication
Georgia : Agricultural and Rural Enterprise Development
(Washington, DC, 2009-12)The report is structured as follows. Section one examines the contribution of the rural economy to the national economy, the structure of the farm and non-farm sectors and their relative importance. Section two describes policies and constraints affecting the wider rural economy including, reforms in macro-economic management, recent external influences and financial services before discussing those which relate specifically to agriculture including, agricultural trade policy, land reform, agricultural machinery services , irrigation and drainage, seeds, sanitary and phytosanitary control and veterinary services, marketing and advisory services. Section three assesses the outcomes of these policies on the structure and performance of the rural economy. Section four describes the extent to which policy makers should prioritize the farm and non-farm sectors in rural areas and then presents recommendations for reform. While it is recognized that rural infrastructure (roads, potable water, and energy) and rural social services have a major impact on the rural economy, the report does not attempt to address these issues in detail. Rural Infrastructure issues are examined in 'rural infrastructure in Georgia, improving service delivery' (World Bank, 2006) and key findings of this report are summarized at the end of section two. -
Publication
Vietnam Planning Study on Investment in Provincial/Local ICT Infrastructure and Services
(Washington, DC, 2009-09-16)The Government of Vietnam acknowledges the benefits of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in its various applications, as a means to develop economic diversification, foster competitiveness, increase productivity, and improve the efficiency and capability of institutions on a governmental level. The increasing availability to information and communication technologies has improved citizens access to information across the different economical sectors. ICT is therefore considered as a crucial catalyst to poverty reduction through the facilitation of information flow between citizens, businesses, and the government. Furthermore, it is considered that ICT ensures a better allocation of resources, service delivery, and acts as a value-creator for poor populations through the creation of new sources of employment and income. The results of this study will provide basis for discussion between the World Bank and the Government on concrete steps regarding how the Bank's financial assistance can best meet the country's need and support the implementation of the Government's plans in this important area. This consultancy is being undertaken as an initial part of a larger technical assistance project whose overall objective is to support the Government of Vietnam in the improvement of its provincial/local telecommunications and information infrastructure and services; it is undertaken in the context of public administrative reforms and decentralization by analyzing options of sustainable implementation arrangements. -
Publication
Macedonia - Moving to Faster and More Inclusive Growth A Country Economic Memorandum : Main Report and Annex
(World Bank, 2009-06-09)This report deals with medium and long-term growth issues rather than the challenges posed by the world financial crisis, the structural policy options presented in the report become even more important in that context, and can help to partially mitigate the impact of the crisis on Macedonia. Section B looks at poverty and inequality issues. Section C examines Macedonia's past growth in terms of total factor productivity analysis, drawing the connection with labor and capital, and within these broad factors, human capital and infrastructure. It also compares Macedonia's growth to a successful regional comparator, Slovakia. Section D benchmarks Macedonia's performance in important policy areas that could affect growth relative to comparator countries. It also estimates how much improved performance in these areas could raise potential growth. Section E looks at efficiency in public expenditure and public investment important issues in raising growth. Section F summarizes these analyses and makes some initial recommendations. -
Publication
Macedonia - Moving to Faster and More Inclusive Growth : A Country Economic Memorandum - Overview
(World Bank, 2009-06-06)This report deals with medium and long-term growth issues rather than the challenges posed by the world financial crisis, the structural policy options presented in the report become even more important in that context, and can help to partially mitigate the impact of the crisis on Macedonia. Section B looks at poverty and inequality issues. Section C examines Macedonia's past growth in terms of total factor productivity analysis, drawing the connection with labor and capital, and within these broad factors, human capital and infrastructure. It also compares Macedonia's growth to a successful regional comparator, Slovakia. Section D benchmarks Macedonia's performance in important policy areas that could affect growth relative to comparator countries. It also estimates how much improved performance in these areas could raise potential growth. Section E looks at efficiency in public expenditure and public investment important issues in raising growth. Section F summarizes these analyses and makes some initial recommendations. -
Publication
Russian Federation - Regional development and growth agglomerations : the longer term challenges of economic transition in the Russian Federation
(World Bank, 2009-01-16)As Russia continues to make rapid general progress in building modem market institutions, the complex spatial dimension of transformation in the country will continue to present strong policy challenges for many years to come. In fact, these challenges are arguably becoming progressively stronger. As confirmed in this Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), economic growth has become much more unevenly distributed across the Russian Federation in recent years, with a sharp contrast opening up between growth agglomerations in much of the Western part of the country and much more modest development in the East and North. This CEM focuses on regional development in the Russian Federation. It first conducts an examination of recent trends in the regional dimension of growth based on available economic data for the country as a whole. Particular attention is given to the topics of convergence, agglomeration, and the sources of regional growth. In this endeavor, the analysis distinguishes between two quite different recent periods of economic growth: 1999-2003 and 2004-2006. A regional-level survey allows for the examination of perceptions of entrepreneurs working in two poorer-than-average regions that have been exhibiting impressive rates of growth in recent years: Rostov and Tver oblasts. The conclusions obtained in these investigations are then related to the question of what type of a national regional strategy, if any, might be useful for Russia. -
Publication
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Volume 2. Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues
(Washington, DC, 2008-04)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth, it has been recovering from crisis in 2001 and grew at 7.5 percent per year on average during 2002-2006. In addition, certain dimensions of public sector governance are instrumental in improving quality of life and promoting competitiveness in Turkey including, for example, food safety and environmental protection. Further strengthening of the legal framework and institutions fighting corruption could improve the investment climate, the efficiency of the public sector, and popular support to further reforms, and continuous macroeconomic stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for sustainable growth. Strong fiscal discipline and monetary policy have reduced chronic inflation to below 10 percent in 2005. Public debt has also been reduced and its sustainability has improved. Accordingly, the resilience of the Turkish economy to shocks has improved as demonstrated by the rapid recovery from turmoil in international markets in the summer of 2006 and, more recently, in the summer-autumn of 2007. -
Publication
Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues, Volume 1. Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2008-04)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), prepared in collaboration with the Turkish authorities, summarizes recent accomplishments in achieving high growth and analyzes remaining public policy challenges and options available to the authorities to meet these challenges. The country seeks to double the nominal per capita income of its population by 2013. It wants this rapid growth to be inclusive of all segments of society, regions, and economic sectors-especially through improved labor market performance leading to more and better jobs in the economy. At the same time, the authorities want to improve the quality of public services which they see as an important complement to economic growth in improving quality of life. They also believe that the potentially negative environmental consequences of the period of rapid growth ahead need to be managed so that the positive welfare gains from higher per capita income levels do not become eroded by environmental nuisances. Turkey has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability and rapid growth, it has been recovering from crisis in 2001 and grew at 7.5 percent per year on average during 2002-2006. In addition, certain dimensions of public sector governance are instrumental in improving quality of life and promoting competitiveness in Turkey including, for example, food safety and environmental protection. Further strengthening of the legal framework and institutions fighting corruption could improve the investment climate, the efficiency of the public sector, and popular support to further reforms, and continuous macroeconomic stability is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for sustainable growth. Strong fiscal discipline and monetary policy have reduced chronic inflation to below 10 percent in 2005. Public debt has also been reduced and its sustainability has improved. Accordingly, the resilience of the Turkish economy to shocks has improved as demonstrated by the rapid recovery from turmoil in international markets in the summer of 2006 and, more recently, in the summer-autumn of 2007. -
Publication
Reforming Administrative Procedures in the Tourism, Food and Road Transportation Sectors in Bulgaria
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-06-25)The results of the alpha survey on administrative barriers completed in 2006 indicate that, notwithstanding recent government reforms to reduce regulations affecting firms, administrative burdens are still substantial impediments to doing business. Based on the survey, the Bulgarian Government has commissioned an in-depth analysis of the procedure affecting three sectors: tourism, food, and transport. This report recommends the efficiency of inspections should be evaluated and a centralized inspection authority for foodstuffs and feed should be considered. More work is needed to assess the efficiency of the current inspection service. -
Publication
Belarus : Window of Opportunity to Enhance Competitiveness and Sustain Economic Growth, A Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus, Volume 1, Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2005-11)This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus takes stock of the growth trends in the country's economy since 1996, reviews the evidence of the accumulated challenges and risks within the existing growth patterns, and provides recommendations aimed at strengthening growth sustainability. In sum, while economic growth in the last nine years has been impressive, the report argues that maintaining the current growth strategy would lead to a gradual erosion of economic competitiveness. The government should make significant policy adjustments by reorienting its policies toward ensuring a better business environment, and a smaller sized government. Current international and domestic environment are favorable for supporting a policy shift toward the acceleration of structural reforms. At the moment, the government is well equipped to mitigate the potential costs of these reforms, because the policy settings are largely determined by the growing economy, the positive trends in both the enterprise and the household sectors, favorable developments in the global economy, low debt, and the strong administrative capacity of the state. This situation could change: various pressures might become stronger, and then these same reforms would become politically more costly, and fiscally more risky. In short, the current window of opportunity should be used to ensure that the authorities' growth and poverty objectives are sustainable in the medium to long terms. The analysis in this report has documented a significant and broad-based growth, while pointing to the erosion of several important factors that have driven this growth recently. The Belarusian economy is facing a considerable risk of declining competitiveness. To sustain growth, a significant policy adjustment is necessary to enhance market discipline, and encourage new business entry.