Country Economic Memorandum

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2184

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Turning Smallness into Uniqueness: Six Key Challenges to Unlock Sao Tome and Principe Growth’s Potential

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07-24) World Bank

Economic growth in Sao Tome and Príncipe (STP) has long been driven by an unsustainable reliance on public expenditures, especially grant- and loan-financed public investment. STP needs to turn its smallness into uniqueness to unlock its growth potential. To accomplish this transformation, this image must be matched by a more balanced growth in which the private sector plays a larger role and with a more effective government. Tourism, agriculture, and fisheries could drive the country’s transition to a more balanced growth pattern. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) highlights six key challenges that STP must overcome as it transitions to a more balanced growth pattern and it offers policy recommendations for addressing each challenge. Accomplishing this rebalancing will require STP to address six key challenges at the macroeconomic, structural, and sectoral level. These include: (i) The twin budget and current-account deficits; (ii) Weak trade connectivity by both air and sea; (iii) Credit constraints caused by a high level of non-performing loans and difficulties enforcing commercial contracts; (iv) Uncertainty surrounding property rights and land tenure; (v) Poor-quality infrastructure, especially in the energy and transportation sector; and (vi) The overexploitation of marine resources.
Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 2: Is it Sustainable for Sao Tome and Príncipe to Have a Large Current Account Deficit and a Fixed Exchange Rate?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26) Arteta, Carlos ; Kirby, Patrick

Is it sustainable for São Tomé and Príncipe to have a large current account deficit and a fixed exchange rate peg? Sao Tomé and Príncipe (STP) pegs its currency, the dobra, to the euro and has both persistent current account deficits and a persistent inflation differential with the Euro Area. In other countries, these characteristics have proved to be unsustainable over time, as rising debt and a worsening trade imbalance leads to the abandonment of the peg. This note examines whether this might be the case in STP, and finds that, despite some vulnerabilities, there does not appear to be an immediate threat to the peg, as the country’s current account deficits seem to be determined not by its trade balance but by its capital balance, which is largely sustained by inflows of aid and remittances. This background note has four sections: the first examines the general theoretical conditions for the sustainability of exchange rate pegs, the second assesses whether these conditions exist or are relevant for STP, a small, open economy with a small financial sector, and the third provides analysis of the drivers of the country’s current account deficit. Policymakers could mitigate risks to the peg by broadening the country’s revenue base, developing a domestic debt market, and diversifying exports.
Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 8: How to Increase the Availability of Financing Needed to Stimulate Private Sector Investment? A Review of the State of and Barriers to Access to Financial Services in São Tomé and Príncipe

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26) Barreto, Rúben ; Vicente, Carlos Leonardo

This note discusses the current structure of the financial sector in São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) and the main obstacles preventing mobilization and allocation of more resources to private sector investment. Since 2012, credit to the private sector in STP has been declining and is currently below peers. In an economy dominated by informality, banks provide credit to a limited number of borrowers, prioritizing large borrowers. A survey completed in 2017 showed that only 18 percent of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) reported being registered and having a bank account, of which only 3 percent had access to credit. The same survey showed that only 39 percent of individuals, some of them owners of micro-enterprises registered under their personal name, have access to financial services. The note is divided into four sections. The first provides an overview of STP’s financial sector, analyzing and benchmarking its structure, depth, and soundness. The second section analyzes the landscape of access to financial services (focusing on individuals and MSMEs), while the third describes some of the key limitations of the financial infrastructure in STP that create obstacles to financial sector development and access to finance. Finally, the fourth section concludes with policy recommendations that can help increase access to financial services in STP.
Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 1: Economic Growth and Volatility in São Tomé and Príncipe

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26) Barroso, Rafael ; You, Chenli

The purpose of this background note is to give an overview of the literature on output volatility and economic growth, assess output volatility and its impact in São Tomé and Príncipe (STP). This note is organized in four sections, besides this introductory part. The second section reviews the literature on the impact of output volatility on economic growth. The third section discusses different measures of volatility, calculating volatility for STP across different periods, and compares them to peer countries. The last section offers some policy recommendations. Output volatility and its relationship with growth have been a hot topic in economic research literature for a long time. There is significant controversy about how economic volatility1 affects economic growth. Although the link between economic growth and volatility is theoretically ambiguous, a negative impact of economic volatility on output growth dominates the empirical literature. This negative relationship also holds with newer and better datasets, advanced econometrics methodologies, and for specific country groups. There are three mains messages in this note. The first one is that volatility affects growth as supported by the literature review and the econometric estimations carried out in this note. The second one is that STP is a volatile country, although volatility of GDP growth and inflation has declined over time and are in line with peers. On the other hand, STP still faces higher volatility on current account balances and net lending and borrowing than its peers. The third message is that, on average, a fifty percent increase in volatility translates into a 25 percent decrease in GDP per capita growth rates. Finally, policy measures aimed at diversifying exports in terms of goods and markets, reduce the reliance on external finance and fiscal rules can help cushion the volatility and reduce its impact.