Country Economic Memorandum
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Publication
Pathways to Sustainable Growth in Niger: A World Bank Group Country Economic Memorandum
(Washington, DC, 2022)This country economic memorandum aims to support Niger’s efforts to walk on a path conducive to a resilient and sustainable economic growth. It does so by attempting to answer the following five questions, each of which constitutes a separate chapter: (i) what were the salient structural characteristics of Niger’s growth performance in the last 20 years; (ii) what are the margins to accelerate growth in the medium to long term; (iii) how can technology be a vehicle for private sector development; (iv) how can the country’s large natural resource endowments be managed in a transparent way that benefits the whole population; and (v) how can the current disaster management framework be strengthened to increase resilience to natural shocks -
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Poland Country Economic Memorandum: The Green Transformation in Poland – Opportunities and Challenges for Economic Growth
(Washington, DC, 2022)Poland’s economic development story is one of success: since the early 1990s, the country has transitioned to a market economy, integrated into the European Union economy and global supply chains and sustained robust growth, avoiding the middle-income trap and increasing the resilience of its economy. Poland has sustained strong growth over the past three decades, making substantial advances in converging towards the European Union (EU-27) average per capita income, although there is still a considerable gap in both productivity and income convergence when compared with aspirational peers. Poland successfully transitioned to an EU-integrated market economy, moving from upper middle-income to high-income status in less than a decade and a half. Its economy underwent a deep structural transformation, supported by cost-competitiveness, and is now well-diversified and more resilient to shocks. Long-term growth has been supported by increased total factor productivity (TFP), grounded in efficiency gains, although capital accumulation has remained the main contributor to growth. While capital deepening did occur, investments in Information Communication and Technology (ICT) and in intangible assets that have high growth potential lagged those of peers. A skilled labor force has contributed more to growth in the case of Poland than it did in peer countries. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, has resulted in important learning losses, as observed throughout the world, and together with reversals in education reforms in recent years could weigh down on labor quality and productivity in the future.COVID-19 -
Publication
Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum: Technical Paper 2. Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods, and Urbanization - Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-09)There is a vast economic literature studying the effects of climate change on long-run growth, migration, urbanization, and human capital, among several other outcomes. The paper is structured as follows: Section 3.2 dives into some of the physical characteristics of Lake Chad and its water sources. Section 3.3 introduces our novel data. Section 3.4 presents the hypothesis and empirical strategy behind our analysis. Sections 3.5, 3.6 and 3.7 present results on total population, cities and roads, respectively. Finally, section 3.8 concludes. -
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Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum: Development for Peace
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-09)This report sheds light on the interlocked long-term territorial development challenges and the recently realized systemic risks affecting the Lake Chad region. It summarizes the findings of seven technical papers, each investigating different aspects of the interlinked challenges faced by the region. These studies are accompanied by complementary research on labor market and geospatial socioeconomic trends, as well as by a review of the thin literature on economic development across the region. In addition to presenting the main results of the technical papers, the report positions the findings in the broader context of an analytical framework depicting the feedback mechanisms between the region’s territorial development gaps and the self-reinforcing link to shocks, namely, violent conflict and climate change. This analytical framework is presented in Section 1.2. The rest of the report is structured as follows. Section 1.3 describes the main social and economic trajectories in the region. It reviews long-term demographic trends, suggesting. Section 1.4 argues that the low-growth, high-poverty equilibrium observed in the region is closely linked to the region’s economic geography. Section 1.5 discusses how the impact of climatic variation and violent conflict experienced in the region interlink with and exacerbate the territorial development challenges. Section 1.6 presents policy directions structured around four crosscutting themes: infrastructure, trade, governance, and natural resource management. The crosscutting nature of these themes encourages the exploration of potential synergies across challenge areas. The discussion in the section aims to inform policy-making efforts to strengthen territorial development and mitigate the impacts of conflict and climate change. Such endeavors can increase the likelihood of breaking free from the self-reinforcing negative mechanisms and boost the potential return of the region to a path of stability and inclusive economic development. -
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Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum: Technical Paper 5. Conflict and Climate Change in the Lake Chad Region
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-09)Peace and security are basic conditions for economic and social development. Conflict, on the other hand, can reverse years of economic growth and induce long-term harm on almost all aspects of development. For the past decade, the Lake Chad region has been the setting of conflicts between government forces and armed groups, most notably the Boko Haram. Although the intensity of fighting has petered off in recent years, the conflict has spread from Northern Nigeria and now affects all four countries of the region. Due to the paramount importance of avoiding armed conflict, a large economic literature exists that seeks to find explanations for the onset and prevalence of conflict in developing countries. Blattman and Miguel [2010] list some of the most common theories of conflict including competition for resources, economic grievances, and the possibility of looting. This paper attempts to shed light on the geographical distribution of conflict and its climatic determinants in the Lake Chad region following a sub-national approach where readily available spatial data is employed at two different units of aggregation: Firstly, 90 second level administrative areas, and secondly, around 5,318 grid cells covering the same region. Exposure to conflict is here defined as the intensity (for districts) or incidence (for cells) of conflict in a given unit each year. Parts of the population may not be directly exposed by this definition, but since the units of analysis are relatively small, most will be affected in some ways, for instance by safety concerns when visiting the nearest towns to trade or by the general economic consequences. -
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Mauritius - Through the Eye of a Perfect Storm: Coming Back Stronger from the COVID Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-30)On July 1, 2020, Mauritius officially joined the ranks of High-Income Countries (HIC). It is a cruel historical irony that Mauritius reached the High-Income milestone during one of the worst years in its history. Mauritius delivered a highly successful health response to the global Covid-19 pandemic through a hard lockdown and subsequent quarantine measures, and as a result has effectively been ‘Covid-free’ from April 2020 to March 2021, when a second outbreak occurred. With a total of 1246 cases and 17 deaths, Mauritius has so far been able to avoid the large-scale health crisis observed in many other countries. However, Covid-19 has caused severe economic disruptions in Mauritius. An oil spill in August and Mauritius’ inclusion in the EU list of High Risk Third Countries for Money Laundering in October 2020 added further pressure. While the events of 2020 require dedicated responses in the short term, addressing the underlying challenges cannot be postponed if Mauritius is to make a strong recovery. The best strategy for a solid recovery lies in a combination of temporary support to firms and households affected by the shock with a comprehensive reform program to address pre-existing structural challenges. It is unlikely that a strategy of simply addressing the short-term effects by supporting ailing firms while waiting for global conditions to improve would suffice to put Mauritius’ economic and social development back on track. On the other hand, the crisis affords policy makers with the opportunity to confront long-festering challenges. -
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Vibrant Vietnam: Forging the Foundation of a High-Income Economy
(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05)Vietnam’s development strategy requires an urgent upgrade. Past growth has been impressive. But as a favorable domestic and international environment changes, future growth must be productivity-driven—obtaining more and higher quality output from firms, infrastructure, workers and natural resources. The World Bank’s Vibrant Vietnam report discusses priorities for an upgraded growth model based on extensive consultations, international experience and academic findings. -
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Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 12: What is the Potential and Obstacles for the Fisheries Sector in São Tomé and Príncipe?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26)The purpose of this note is to give an overview of the fisheries sector in STP, its potential and obstacles, as well some policy recommendations to address these obstacles, ensure sustainable management of these resources and tap into its potential. It is organized in four section, besides this introduction. The second section describes the fishing sector in STP, while the third and the fourth outline the obstacles for the development of the artisanal and industrial fisheries respectively. The last section offers policy recommendations. Fisheries play an important role for the economic and social development of the country, however resources are likely over-exploited. Coastal marine resources are showing signs of full or overexploitation around the Sao Tome island. Before looking at increasing production of coastal resources, knowledge on the status of the fish stock would have to be improved through data collection and research to understand the potential of these resources and adequate sustainable management of these resources would have to be ensure through reinforced legal framework, governance and enforcement, as well as the potential development of co-management1 system between the STP authorities and the fishing communities. -
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Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 15: Blue Economy and Environmental Resiliency
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26)Oceans are an important source of wealth, at least 3 to 5 percent of global GDP is derived from the oceans, but their overall health is reaching a tipping point. Close to a third of fish stocks are fully fished or overfished, climate change is impacting coastal and marine ecosystems through a variety of vectors, unbridled development in the coastal zone is causing erosion, widespread desalination in semi enclosed seas is threatening fauna and flora alike, and marine pollution, particularly from land-based sources is reaching such a proportion that its impacts cannot even be accurately measured. The role of healthy oceans in stabilizing climate and keeping the planet cool is now better understood, and increasingly given the prominence and visibility it deserves in the global action arena. It is also known that business as usual in the different economic sectors associated with coastal and marine ecosystems will have great environmental and social impacts, which are expected to disproportionally affect vulnerable groups of the population, particularly women and girls. This is reflected in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 - Life Below Water, which calls to conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development. In this context, the concept of the Blue Economy is particularly relevant and applicable to STP. Different institutions have different definitions of the Blue Economy, which is understood by the Bank as the sustainable and integrated development of oceanic sectors in healthy oceans. There is growing recognition that overfishing, marine pollution, and coastal erosion, among other issues, are pushing oceans to a tipping point to the detriment of the millions who depend on healthy oceans for jobs, nutrition, economic growth, and climate regulation. Central to the Blue Economy approach is the recognition that social benefits should be maximized over the long-term, ensuring that the economic drivers that result from the sustainable use of ocean resources are maintained. -
Publication
Country Economic Memorandum for Sao Tome and Principe - Background Note 10: What are the Obstacles to Agricultural Development in STP? A Review of Current Agriculture Production Structure and Potential
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-26)This note presents an analysis of the obstacles and opportunities for STP’s agriculture value chains, assesses the main sector risks, and provides a series of public sector recommendations for increased private sector investment. While the country will remain a net importer of food and agricultural products for the foreseeable future, a series of opportunities exist, some to increase import-substitution, others to expand exports. Given STP’s land constraints and climate variability, importing food will continue to occur in the near to medium-term future to satisfy local demand. However, import-substitution opportunities will continue to offer prospects centered on the feedstuff-livestock chain and the horticultural sector, as well as some additional expansion of the palm oil industry. Export opportunities lie primarily in cocoa products as well as in emerging non-traditional agricultural exports, some strategically linked to tourism, especially eco-tourism already embraced by the government and by high end tourist developments established in the past few years. Analysis of the competitiveness of existing and emerging rural supply chains in STP reveals a series of characteristics that allow to overcome the structural diseconomies of scale of a small island state. These characteristics include among others: (i) high value-to-weight products, (ii) agricultural products that can be taken with tourists, (iii) low perishability and products that can be stored, (iv) climate change resilience; and (v) explore the country’s uniqueness. Value chains that possess some of these key characteristics discerned from the analysis offer private sector opportunities, provided the enabling environment allows them to reach their potential.