Other Poverty Study

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Trends and Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in South Asia

(Washington, DC, 2013-06-16) World Bank

Like many other developing countries, South Asian nations have been experiencing increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows over the past decade as developing countries get a larger share of cross-border investments once sent to developed countries. Nonetheless, South Asia's FDI inflows remain the lowest relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) among developing country regions. Over the next 20 years, more than one million new workers will be entering the South Asian labor market each month as the region's youth bulge matures and seeks employment. To absorb these workers and provide higher living standards and reduce poverty, South Asian countries will have to rely on more than just public investment. This report looks into the historical patterns of FDI in South Asia, examines its sectoral composition, and evaluates current policies and policy options that may help create an environment for increasing FDI flows. The launching point for this study is the substantial empirical literature that suggests that FDI is associated with growth, development, and productivity enhancement. The goal of the study is modest in that it does not seek to estimate the size of FDI spillovers on productivity growth, or address whether governments should actively subsidize FDI inflows over domestic investment as a means to enhance growth, but rather to understand whether the level of FDI flows as a share of GDP, its sectoral composition, and intra-regional flows are comparable to other developing regions and, if not, what might be some of the impediments to these flows. While FDI flows have increased over the past decade to South Asia, particularly from developed countries to South Asian service sectors, it has lagged in other sectors and remains relatively low overall. Overall, positive changes have taken place over the past few decades, while restrictions on FDI differ substantially among countries in South Asia. India's progress on FDI promoting policies has accelerated in recent years to make FDI policies more transparent, predictable, and simpler. Many other countries have also taken steps to improve transparency in regulations and reassure investors about the security of their investments in the country. Finally, the paper examines the determinants of FDI growth in South Asia.
Analysis and Options for Namibia's Medium-Term Debt Strategy

(Washington, DC, 2013-06) World Bank

Since gaining its independence 23 years ago, Namibia has established an enviable track record of political stability, prudent macroeconomic policies, moderate growth, poverty reduction, and natural resource conservation. The country has achieved these gains while facing constraints imposed by geography, legacies of apartheid and colonialism, and the challenges of constructing a national government. Daunting challenges remain, however. Namibia suffers from chronic high unemployment, the ravages of HIV/AIDS, and one of the world most skewed distributions of income. The structure of the economy has remained fundamentally unchanged since Independence: minerals and metals make up the majority of exports; the public sector remains the largest employer; and there has been little investment in labor-intensive manufacturing, which in many countries has absorbed low-skilled labor exiting traditional agriculture. This report uses the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to analyze options facing the GRN as it prepares the new Sovereign Debt Management Strategy (SDMS). This framework emphasizes the explicit analysis of relative costs and risks in a debt management strategy, the linkages between the debt strategy and other macroeconomic policies, and the strategy's consistency with debt sustainability. The report opens with a review of the GRN's current debt management strategy, the sources of financing available to the government, and the macroeconomic environment. The report then applies the MTDS analytical tool to analyze costs and risks of alternative debt management strategies that were developed by MOF participants in the November 2012 capacity-building exercise. It also examines domestic debt market development and contingent liabilities arising from government guarantees, two issues of special concern to the GRN. Finally, it discusses institutional arrangements and implementation issues.
EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds

(Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank

This study claims that despite the challenging external environment, EU11 countries did well in 2011. First, economic growth strengthened to above 3 percent (from around 2 percent in 2010) and the region fully recovered its output losses from the global financial crisis. Second, fiscal measures delivered reduction of around 3 percent of GDP in the EU11 average fiscal deficit. Third, the financial sector remained resilient to renewed concerns about negative feedback loops between insecure sovereign debtors and fragile financial markets. However, the good performance conceals important shifts in economic sentiment that occurred during the year. While the growth momentum was still strong in the first half of 2011, it slowed toward the end of the year, as the region started to feel the impact of lingering concerns about European sovereign-debt markets, creeping oil prices, and the global slowdown. With the downward trend in economic activity, labor markets remained slack. Unemployment rates hovered around those recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis with sluggish employment growth. The paper points out that the European economic growth model has delivered unprecedented welfare to the continent over the last half century. In spite of its remarkable success, several aspects of the European economic growth model require reform to ensure that it is sustainable. Among the priorities for many European states today are providing incentives for labor mobility, making public finances more sustainable, and adapting social security systems to demographic developments, and harmonizing regulation across borders. This note zeroes in on the EU11 region to explore what is driving their prosperity and growth. The main messages related to the drivers of growth and prosperity in EU11 are as follows: 1) Convergence; 2) Trade and finance; 3) Enterprise and innovation; 4) Labor; and 4) Government.
Coping with Conflict? Poverty and Inclusion in the West Bank and Gaza

(World Bank, 2011-07-29) World Bank

The prevailing reality in the West Bank and Gaza, with its profound dependence on international aid and Israel, the stifling man-made regime of internal and external barriers to mobility, and the limited say on its economic policies and trade, is unique in the world. This report provides a detailed analysis of poverty and its close and enduring links with labor market outcomes and restrictions on the movement of goods and people in the West Bank and Gaza. The overarching objective of the report is to understand the trends in and determinants of poverty in the context of the ongoing conflict and closure regime. Covering the period after the second Intifada, this report is the first major analysis of poverty in the West Bank and Gaza since 2001, and unique in its use of multiple data sources, building a comprehensive and current picture of the economic and social well being of the Palestinian people. The dominant narrative of this report is one of divergence in important dimensions of poverty, growth and welfare between the West Bank and Gaza.
Moldova - After the Global Crisis : Promoting Competitiveness and Shared Growth

(World Bank, 2011-06-14) World Bank

This report argues that in the future Moldova will need to develop a second engine of growth from exports of goods and services. We argue that Moldova needs to resurrect agro-based exports, to raise their value by exporting to higher value markets, and develop service exports in order to provide job opportunities for underemployed tertiary graduates. To be successful in doing so, the government will need to implement deep fiscal and structural reforms to break the cycle, while taking advantage of productivity gains. Much needs fixing, and Moldova's public sector does not have the capacity to fix it all. Moldova's leaders need to reach consensus on a comprehensive and sequenced growth and poverty reduction strategy. This report sketches out what such a strategy should contain. The author suggests that geography and the Government's policy stance fundamentally shape Moldova's economic growth potential and the path and priorities that a growth strategy should follow. Government needs to accelerate reforms so that the country can emerge from the global crisis-induced recession with faster and less vulnerable growth. Business as usual will not suffice. The world's capital markets have become tighter, foreign investors more demanding, and export markets more competitive. In April 2009, Moldova's youth indicated that that they can no longer stand aside and watch Moldova fall behind, they have called for a politics of aspiration, and they will demand economic policies consistent with these aspirations.
Tajikistan - Delivering Social Assistance to the Poorest Households

(World Bank, 2011-04-06) World Bank

During the food, fuel, and financial crises of 2008 and 2009, the Government and donors found themselves without an effective mechanism for channeling assistance to the poor. In 2009, the Government of Tajikistan asked the World Bank to support improvement of its system of social assistance. The World Bank prepared this report to inform its technical and financial support for improvement of social assistance and also to define an initial mechanism for delivering benefits to the poorest households. At present, Tajikistan's system of social assistance exerts almost no downward influence on poverty rates. This note sets forth the case for reform and then presents some specific technical proposals for reforms. To trace the path to reform, this report starts with an assessment of the present system. The other main social assistance program is compensation to needy families whose children attend school. This program pays benefits to selected households if their children enroll in and attend school. The size of the benefit is negligible and is judged too low to influence school attendance. An important step in the reform will be to consolidate the two main social assistance programs, and if possible, all the programs, and replace them with a single targeted social assistance benefit program. This will improve targeting by decoupling social assistance from consumption of electricity and natural gas. This is important since some very poor people live in isolated mountainous areas where they are not connected to the electricity and gas grids, and thus would not benefit from these compensation transfers. This report presents proposals for scoring formulas (drawn from proxy-means tests) for urban and rural areas, based on data on the characteristics of households and observable proxies for consumption. Empirically, the most important household characteristics for predicting consumption are the number of children, the number of family members, and the oblast of residence.
2011 Philippines Development Report : Generating Inclusive Growth to Uplift the Poor

(World Bank, 2011-02-01) World Bank

The theme of the 2011 Philippines development report is 'generating inclusive growth, uplifting the poor and vulnerable'. This theme is follows from the priorities set in President Aquino's Social Contract and the emerging 2011-2016 Philippines Development Plan (PDP). The PDP details the vision of inclusive growth and poverty reduction that underlies the social contract (chapter one). Accordingly, the PDP focuses on three strategic objectives: (1) attaining a sustained and high rate of economic growth that provides productive employment opportunities, (2) equalizing access to development opportunities for all Filipinos, and (3) implementing effective social safety nets to protect and enable those who do not have the capability to participate in the economic growth process. While the country's development agenda remains broadly the same over the last decade, the Aquino government is focusing on stepped-up implementation and delivery. The pressing development issues confronting the Philippines in 2011 are not radically different from those of previous years. The critical difference is the new government's focus on effective implementation and delivery of public goods and services, starting with a firm approach to fighting corruption and improving governance.
Romania - Reining in Local Government Spending

(World Bank, 2011-02-01) World Bank

Sub-national Governments play an important role in the Romanian public sector. In 2009, sub-national spending was equivalent to 8.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Romania has frequently adjusted its system for financing sub-national government over the last decade. These changes reflect ongoing Government concerns over the performance of local governments as well as attempts to increase the transparency and stability of the intergovernmental fiscal relationship. The most recent reform proposals reflect a more immediate concern: the government deficit. In an effort to meet aggregate targets for cuts in spending, the Government has been debating measures to reduce the local wage bill, cut transfers to local governments, and restrain local arrears. The principal objective of this technical assistance has been to advise the Government on the design and implementation of such efforts, and to suggest directions for longer-term structural reforms. Romania has a two-tier structure of local government. The national territory is divided into 41 counties (judets) and the city of Bucharest. These are then divided into various categories of second-tier local governments, hereafter referred to as localities. As of 2008, there were 3,179 such jurisdictions, consisting of 2,855 communes, 216 towns, 102 cities, and six Bucharest districts. Both counties and localities have elected councils and directly elected mayors/presidents. The budgets of sub-national governments are dominated by spending on education. Education accounted for 30 percent of sub-national expenditure in 2009. But the role of sub-national governments in education is limited. Localities act as paymasters for the ministry of education, distributing teachers' salaries on its behalf. These payments are financed from earmarked grants. Localities have no control over staffing numbers or wage levels in the education sector. They are, however, responsible for operating and maintaining school buildings, a function which they finance from discretionary revenues. In much the same respect, localities act as agents of centrally-financed social assistance programs, such as the guaranteed minimum income.
Mauritius - Enhancing and Sustaining Competitiveness : Policy Notes on Trade and Labor

(World Bank, 2010-12-03) World Bank

Mauritius is a well known successful development story. The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita rose from 38 percent below the world average in 1981 to 16 percent above the average by 2008. Such a performance is not the fruit of luck or use of natural advantages as it was accomplished through man-made efforts and policy actions. The combination of (i) active industrialization policies together with opportunistic use of preferential trade access; and (ii) participatory institutions that assured voice and rent redistribution across the society ensured labor intensive growth and the emergence of a virtuous cycle in development. Mauritius knew what needed to be done. A National Long-Term Perspective Study (NLTPS), also known as Vision 2020, started in 1990 and was completed in 1997. The goal of opening up and diversifying the economy by moving towards high value-added, skill and knowledge intensive service sectors was already well articulated in the study - with explicit reference to the potential of 'computer services' which today is embedded in the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector. The global crisis in 2008 was a threatening reminder of vulnerabilities. Mauritius is structurally vulnerable to external shocks. With a small domestic market unable to promote or sustain production growth by itself and a high dependence on raw materials, food and energy imports, the country is necessarily tied to developments in the world economy. An overarching challenge for Mauritius to achieve the envisaged transformation towards a higher value added economy and sustain economic growth is to improve its productivity performance. This report focuses on two key fundamental instruments for that: (i) trade policy and (ii) labor policy.
Niger - Modernizing Trade During a Mining Boom : Diagnostic Trade Integration Study for the Integrated Framework Program

(World Bank, 2010-09-01) World Bank

The Niger Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) has been prepared under the Integrated Framework (IF) for trade related technical assistance to least developed countries in response to a request from the Government of Burkina Faso. The study is to build the foundation for accelerated growth by enhancing the integration of its economy into regional and global markets. This Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) is intended to provide a broad overview of the key elements for successful integration into external markets, both through access to low-cost imports and especially through the development and diversification of exports. It pays particular attention to the role that trade can play in poverty reduction. It is fully in line with Niger's new strategy for accelerated development and poverty reduction. Indeed, that strategy refers to this study as a key input and identifies the same set of priority sectors as sources of growth - rural development, artisanal crafts, tourism and mining. This study is also consistent with the rural development strategy which emphasizes various export-oriented agro-pastoral subsectors. What this study to do is to provide more details and a sense of priorities in order to strengthen the trade component of these two strategies.