Other Poverty Study

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Analysis and Options for Namibia's Medium-Term Debt Strategy

(Washington, DC, 2013-06) World Bank

Since gaining its independence 23 years ago, Namibia has established an enviable track record of political stability, prudent macroeconomic policies, moderate growth, poverty reduction, and natural resource conservation. The country has achieved these gains while facing constraints imposed by geography, legacies of apartheid and colonialism, and the challenges of constructing a national government. Daunting challenges remain, however. Namibia suffers from chronic high unemployment, the ravages of HIV/AIDS, and one of the world most skewed distributions of income. The structure of the economy has remained fundamentally unchanged since Independence: minerals and metals make up the majority of exports; the public sector remains the largest employer; and there has been little investment in labor-intensive manufacturing, which in many countries has absorbed low-skilled labor exiting traditional agriculture. This report uses the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to analyze options facing the GRN as it prepares the new Sovereign Debt Management Strategy (SDMS). This framework emphasizes the explicit analysis of relative costs and risks in a debt management strategy, the linkages between the debt strategy and other macroeconomic policies, and the strategy's consistency with debt sustainability. The report opens with a review of the GRN's current debt management strategy, the sources of financing available to the government, and the macroeconomic environment. The report then applies the MTDS analytical tool to analyze costs and risks of alternative debt management strategies that were developed by MOF participants in the November 2012 capacity-building exercise. It also examines domestic debt market development and contingent liabilities arising from government guarantees, two issues of special concern to the GRN. Finally, it discusses institutional arrangements and implementation issues.
EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds

(Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank

This study claims that despite the challenging external environment, EU11 countries did well in 2011. First, economic growth strengthened to above 3 percent (from around 2 percent in 2010) and the region fully recovered its output losses from the global financial crisis. Second, fiscal measures delivered reduction of around 3 percent of GDP in the EU11 average fiscal deficit. Third, the financial sector remained resilient to renewed concerns about negative feedback loops between insecure sovereign debtors and fragile financial markets. However, the good performance conceals important shifts in economic sentiment that occurred during the year. While the growth momentum was still strong in the first half of 2011, it slowed toward the end of the year, as the region started to feel the impact of lingering concerns about European sovereign-debt markets, creeping oil prices, and the global slowdown. With the downward trend in economic activity, labor markets remained slack. Unemployment rates hovered around those recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis with sluggish employment growth. The paper points out that the European economic growth model has delivered unprecedented welfare to the continent over the last half century. In spite of its remarkable success, several aspects of the European economic growth model require reform to ensure that it is sustainable. Among the priorities for many European states today are providing incentives for labor mobility, making public finances more sustainable, and adapting social security systems to demographic developments, and harmonizing regulation across borders. This note zeroes in on the EU11 region to explore what is driving their prosperity and growth. The main messages related to the drivers of growth and prosperity in EU11 are as follows: 1) Convergence; 2) Trade and finance; 3) Enterprise and innovation; 4) Labor; and 4) Government.
Liberia : Strategic Policy Options for Medium Term Growth and Development

(Washington, DC, 2012-03-15) World Bank

This paper explores Liberia's policy options in support of the development of a Medium-Term Growth and Development Strategy (MTGDS) for 2013-2017 and its national vision, Liberia Rising 2030. At issue is the mismatch between available fiscal space and the enormous development needs that the government must resolve as it prepares to transform the economy into a middle-income country by 2040. This dilemma calls for the new administration to make trade-offs among various priorities if it is to achieve its aspirations. For this purpose, a Liberian version of a single-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal, or MDG simulations), was developed and informed by analytical studies as well as sector strategies prepared in support of Liberia's MTGDS. This paper examines the likely impacts on macroeconomic and social indicators of alternate strategic policy scenarios. A base scenario (designed to represent a central case for the evolution of Liberia's economy up to 2030) was first established, and thereafter a set of different assumptions were introduced for the mining sector, government spending on infrastructure and human development, and foreign borrowing. The paper is organized into five sections including this introduction. Section two presents the basic features of MAMS. The simulation analysis, which is the focus of the paper, is covered in the next two sections: the base scenario in section three and a set of alternative scenarios, which are contrasted with the base scenario, in section four. The final section summarizes the main findings and conclusion. Appendices one and two include a set of figures with selected simulation results and a brief discussion of the Liberian database for MAMS, respectively.
Jamaica : Poverty and Social Impacts of Fiscal Reforms

(Washington, DC, 2012) World Bank

This Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) explores the distributional effects of a package of fiscal reforms initiated by the Government of Jamaica and supported by the World Bank under the programmatic fiscal sustainability Development Policy Loan (DPL) series. The DPL series supports improved budget and debt management in order to reduce the debt overhang and create additional fiscal space for productive public spending, including social expenditures. The PSIA discusses the poverty and distributional impacts of the prior actions supported under the DPL, with a particular focus on two reform actions likely to have the most significant impacts: (1) tax reform and (2) public sector reform, focusing on rationalization of public bodies. The report offers both quantitative and qualitative assessments of the potential poverty and distributional effects of these policy changes. The report is structured as follows: section two analyzes the expected impact of changes in tax policy; section three investigates the potential impacts of public bodies' rationalization, and section four offers some caveats and concluding remarks. Each section begins with a discussion of the reform background as well as the major supporters and opponents of the reform. The analysis in each section is presented with the least possible amount of technical details in order to maximize the appeal to a broader audience. For the interested reader, the methodological details of the empirical approaches employed in this report are contained in the annexes.
Coping with Conflict? Poverty and Inclusion in the West Bank and Gaza

(World Bank, 2011-07-29) World Bank

The prevailing reality in the West Bank and Gaza, with its profound dependence on international aid and Israel, the stifling man-made regime of internal and external barriers to mobility, and the limited say on its economic policies and trade, is unique in the world. This report provides a detailed analysis of poverty and its close and enduring links with labor market outcomes and restrictions on the movement of goods and people in the West Bank and Gaza. The overarching objective of the report is to understand the trends in and determinants of poverty in the context of the ongoing conflict and closure regime. Covering the period after the second Intifada, this report is the first major analysis of poverty in the West Bank and Gaza since 2001, and unique in its use of multiple data sources, building a comprehensive and current picture of the economic and social well being of the Palestinian people. The dominant narrative of this report is one of divergence in important dimensions of poverty, growth and welfare between the West Bank and Gaza.
Moldova - After the Global Crisis : Promoting Competitiveness and Shared Growth

(World Bank, 2011-06-14) World Bank

This report argues that in the future Moldova will need to develop a second engine of growth from exports of goods and services. We argue that Moldova needs to resurrect agro-based exports, to raise their value by exporting to higher value markets, and develop service exports in order to provide job opportunities for underemployed tertiary graduates. To be successful in doing so, the government will need to implement deep fiscal and structural reforms to break the cycle, while taking advantage of productivity gains. Much needs fixing, and Moldova's public sector does not have the capacity to fix it all. Moldova's leaders need to reach consensus on a comprehensive and sequenced growth and poverty reduction strategy. This report sketches out what such a strategy should contain. The author suggests that geography and the Government's policy stance fundamentally shape Moldova's economic growth potential and the path and priorities that a growth strategy should follow. Government needs to accelerate reforms so that the country can emerge from the global crisis-induced recession with faster and less vulnerable growth. Business as usual will not suffice. The world's capital markets have become tighter, foreign investors more demanding, and export markets more competitive. In April 2009, Moldova's youth indicated that that they can no longer stand aside and watch Moldova fall behind, they have called for a politics of aspiration, and they will demand economic policies consistent with these aspirations.
Timor Leste - Expanding Near-Term Agricultural Exports - Main Report

(World Bank, 2011-06-01) World Bank

The Government of Timor-Leste (GOTL) is committed to the development of the non-oil economy by enabling the diversification of domestic production and trade integration. The objective of the Timor-Leste Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) is to agree on priority actions to help overcome constraints to expanding agricultural exports in the near-term. It supports the government's efforts to develop a broader international trade strategy, which may include strategic sectors such as tourism and fisheries. The focus of the DTIS is on short-term results in areas with immediate export potential. It therefore looks only at the agriculture sector. Achieving export growth and diversification are essential for supporting overall economic growth and employment generation. Non-oil export growth is critical in light of the external sustainability risks of depending on exhaustible petroleum exports. Expanding output for domestic consumption is also a priority and may help reduce dependence on imports. Policy actions to expand exports will impact positively on domestic trade as well. Timor-Leste faces the challenge of having to mostly create a non-oil export sector, rather than reviving one that is stagnant or destroyed because of conflict. This context is quite unique even when compared to similar small-island or post-conflict countries.
Romania - Reining in Local Government Spending

(World Bank, 2011-02-01) World Bank

Sub-national Governments play an important role in the Romanian public sector. In 2009, sub-national spending was equivalent to 8.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Romania has frequently adjusted its system for financing sub-national government over the last decade. These changes reflect ongoing Government concerns over the performance of local governments as well as attempts to increase the transparency and stability of the intergovernmental fiscal relationship. The most recent reform proposals reflect a more immediate concern: the government deficit. In an effort to meet aggregate targets for cuts in spending, the Government has been debating measures to reduce the local wage bill, cut transfers to local governments, and restrain local arrears. The principal objective of this technical assistance has been to advise the Government on the design and implementation of such efforts, and to suggest directions for longer-term structural reforms. Romania has a two-tier structure of local government. The national territory is divided into 41 counties (judets) and the city of Bucharest. These are then divided into various categories of second-tier local governments, hereafter referred to as localities. As of 2008, there were 3,179 such jurisdictions, consisting of 2,855 communes, 216 towns, 102 cities, and six Bucharest districts. Both counties and localities have elected councils and directly elected mayors/presidents. The budgets of sub-national governments are dominated by spending on education. Education accounted for 30 percent of sub-national expenditure in 2009. But the role of sub-national governments in education is limited. Localities act as paymasters for the ministry of education, distributing teachers' salaries on its behalf. These payments are financed from earmarked grants. Localities have no control over staffing numbers or wage levels in the education sector. They are, however, responsible for operating and maintaining school buildings, a function which they finance from discretionary revenues. In much the same respect, localities act as agents of centrally-financed social assistance programs, such as the guaranteed minimum income.
Liberia - Employment and Pro-Poor Growth

(World Bank, 2010-11-29) World Bank

Fourteen years of civil conflict (1989-2003) have destroyed Liberia's social and economic infrastructure and brought the economy nearly to a halt. Workers who came of age during the conflict are largely unskilled, and the supply of workers exceeds demand by a substantial margin. The negative effects of unemployment, underemployment, and low productivity on economic growth have made employment the most urgent demand of the population and the top priority for Government action. This report offers guidance to the Government of Liberia in its development of a more strategic approach toward increasing productivity and employment, in order to achieve its pro-poor growth objectives. This report includes seven sections: employment is key for poverty reduction; one in five workers is unemployed or underemployed; the structure of Liberia's economy limits prospects for formal sector employment; transformation of the agriculture sector is essential for pro-poor growth; investment and job growth in the formal sector are constrained by three main factors; labor-intensive public works programs are necessary for the very poor; and education and training must be improved to enhance employability.
Niger - Modernizing Trade During a Mining Boom : Diagnostic Trade Integration Study for the Integrated Framework Program

(World Bank, 2010-09-01) World Bank

The Niger Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) has been prepared under the Integrated Framework (IF) for trade related technical assistance to least developed countries in response to a request from the Government of Burkina Faso. The study is to build the foundation for accelerated growth by enhancing the integration of its economy into regional and global markets. This Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) is intended to provide a broad overview of the key elements for successful integration into external markets, both through access to low-cost imports and especially through the development and diversification of exports. It pays particular attention to the role that trade can play in poverty reduction. It is fully in line with Niger's new strategy for accelerated development and poverty reduction. Indeed, that strategy refers to this study as a key input and identifies the same set of priority sectors as sources of growth - rural development, artisanal crafts, tourism and mining. This study is also consistent with the rural development strategy which emphasizes various export-oriented agro-pastoral subsectors. What this study to do is to provide more details and a sense of priorities in order to strengthen the trade component of these two strategies.