Other Poverty Study
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Publication
Georgia Indebtedness Poverty Note: Analysis Based on Integrated Household Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11-05)There is considerable public concern about the level of household indebtedness in Georgia. The new regulation expected to come into force on November 1, 2018 addresses this concern by enforcing the responsible credit framework targeting commercial banks. The objective of this note is twofold. First, the note presents micro-level evidence using the nationally representative household survey to understand households’ borrowing patterns with supporting evidence from perceptions surveys. Second, the note examines plausible causal effects of over-indebtedness on household’s welfare. This paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides macroeconomic indicators and findings from perception survey as the background evidence. Section 3 illustrates the prevalence of borrowing among the households and identifies type of households that borrow from different sources. Section 4 shows results from the causal impact analysis of bank loans on household welfare. Section 5 concludes with directions for future research. -
Publication
Braving the Storm: Poverty and Inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina 2007-2011
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-05)This note describes the trends in, and composition of, absolute poverty based on household expenditures, and is thus concerned, as a matter of policy objectives, with access of the population to a particular minimum standard of living. This should be viewed as complementary to the companion note on social exclusion based on Europe 2020 indicators including the relative at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate, focuses on low income in relation to other residents in a given country. In addition to the analysis of absolute poverty, the note also presents an analysis of inclusive growth, aimed at assessing whether income growth (losses) benefit (impact) differentially the lowest part (here, bottom forty percent) of the distribution. Other approaches, such as those including measures of poverty based on current income, or self-reported measures of affordability, or approached that differ in the way they set the poverty threshold exist. The choice of World Bank’s methodology for purposes of this report is primarily on pragmatic grounds: (i) it allows for the analysis of trends during 2007-2011; (ii) the same methodology was adopted in the previous report (World Bank 2009) to analyze poverty trends during 2004-2007, thus providing a longer trend; (iii) it allows for comparisons of trends across the entities of BiH. -
Publication
Market Accessibility and Regional Maps : Kyrgyz Republic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04-01)Access to markets is argued to have a significant role in development. In order to quantify the access of places to markets, policy makers are showing increasing interest in accessibility indicators (Yoshida and Deichmann 2009). This paper seeks to examine the spatial relationship of access to market in the Kyrgyz Republic using a recent census and household survey in order to identify possible linkages with rates of poverty and other micro (spatial) information. This analysis uses the market accessibility index that measures the potential connectivity of population or expenditures between village/towns and big cities via the transport network. Results show that high market accessibility is located near the large cities with a concentration of infrastructure, while low access is more in the rural areas. Future work will use this indicator in economic models to statistical identify its significance with regards to per capita expenditure and poverty. -
Publication
EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds
(Washington, DC, 2012-06)This study claims that despite the challenging external environment, EU11 countries did well in 2011. First, economic growth strengthened to above 3 percent (from around 2 percent in 2010) and the region fully recovered its output losses from the global financial crisis. Second, fiscal measures delivered reduction of around 3 percent of GDP in the EU11 average fiscal deficit. Third, the financial sector remained resilient to renewed concerns about negative feedback loops between insecure sovereign debtors and fragile financial markets. However, the good performance conceals important shifts in economic sentiment that occurred during the year. While the growth momentum was still strong in the first half of 2011, it slowed toward the end of the year, as the region started to feel the impact of lingering concerns about European sovereign-debt markets, creeping oil prices, and the global slowdown. With the downward trend in economic activity, labor markets remained slack. Unemployment rates hovered around those recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis with sluggish employment growth. The paper points out that the European economic growth model has delivered unprecedented welfare to the continent over the last half century. In spite of its remarkable success, several aspects of the European economic growth model require reform to ensure that it is sustainable. Among the priorities for many European states today are providing incentives for labor mobility, making public finances more sustainable, and adapting social security systems to demographic developments, and harmonizing regulation across borders. This note zeroes in on the EU11 region to explore what is driving their prosperity and growth. The main messages related to the drivers of growth and prosperity in EU11 are as follows: 1) Convergence; 2) Trade and finance; 3) Enterprise and innovation; 4) Labor; and 4) Government. -
Publication
In Search of Opportunities : How a More Mobile Workforce Can Propel Ukraine’s Prosperity (Vol. 1 of 2) : Summary Report
(Washington, DC, 2012-05)Ukrainians do not move often, and when they do move, they don't necessarily go to areas with good jobs and high wages. Internal mobility is about half of what is expected when comparing Ukraine with other countries. The lack of mobility is remarkable, given the availability of more jobs and better wages in several Ukrainian cities. Too few people are taking advantage of economic opportunities, and as a result, Ukraine's structural transformation has stalled. This is a sharp contrast to many other countries in Eastern Europe, where the transition to a market economy has been accompanied by a shift from widely-dispersed industries to a concentration of capital and production in a few areas, and from low- to higher-productivity sectors. Labor has largely mirrored the movement of capital and production. In Ukraine, however, labor is not flowing as smoothly to areas of high production. This report examines the mobility of workers inside Ukraine and their willingness to physically relocate from one area or region to another in search of better economic opportunities. The report explores the patterns and trends of labor mobility in Ukraine as well as the drivers and constraints of that mobility, and derives policy implications from its findings. Second chapter of this volume offers evidence of how a mobile workforce benefits the economy. It shows how the economic transition in most of Eastern Europe has been accompanied by the significant concentration of capital and people in a few areas. This has not happened to the same extent in Ukraine. Third chapter shows that what little migration we see in Ukraine is not necessarily going to the leading regions. For internal migration to lead to growth and better living standards, workers have to move to the areas of the country where productivity and therefore, wages are high, and where unemployment is low. Third chapter more over examines the factors that prevent Ukrainians from moving. Fourth chapter offers recommendations for creating greater labor mobility in Ukraine. It explains how addressing the institutional bottlenecks that affect internal mobility will allow more people, especially the poor, to access better jobs, accelerating growth and enabling living standards to rise. -
Publication
In Search of Opportunities : How a More Mobile Workforce Can Propel Ukraine’s Prosperity (Vol. 2 of 2) : Technical Report
(Washington, DC, 2012-05)Ukrainians do not move often, and when they do move, they don't necessarily go to areas with good jobs and high wages. Internal mobility is about half of what is expected when comparing Ukraine with other countries. The lack of mobility is remarkable, given the availability of more jobs and better wages in several Ukrainian cities. Too few people are taking advantage of economic opportunities, and as a result, Ukraine's structural transformation has stalled. This is a sharp contrast to many other countries in Eastern Europe, where the transition to a market economy has been accompanied by a shift from widely-dispersed industries to a concentration of capital and production in a few areas, and from low- to higher-productivity sectors. Labor has largely mirrored the movement of capital and production. In Ukraine, however, labor is not flowing as smoothly to areas of high production. This report examines the mobility of workers inside Ukraine and their willingness to physically relocate from one area or region to another in search of better economic opportunities. The report explores the patterns and trends of labor mobility in Ukraine as well as the drivers and constraints of that mobility, and derives policy implications from its findings. Second chapter of this volume offers evidence of how a mobile workforce benefits the economy. It shows how the economic transition in most of Eastern Europe has been accompanied by the significant concentration of capital and people in a few areas. This has not happened to the same extent in Ukraine. Third chapter shows that what little migration we see in Ukraine is not necessarily going to the leading regions. For internal migration to lead to growth and better living standards, workers have to move to the areas of the country where productivity and therefore, wages are high, and where unemployment is low. Third chapter more over examines the factors that prevent Ukrainians from moving. Fourth chapter offers recommendations for creating greater labor mobility in Ukraine. It explains how addressing the institutional bottlenecks that affect internal mobility will allow more people, especially the poor, to access better jobs, accelerating growth and enabling living standards to rise. -
Publication
Moldova - After the Global Crisis : Promoting Competitiveness and Shared Growth
(World Bank, 2011-06-14)This report argues that in the future Moldova will need to develop a second engine of growth from exports of goods and services. We argue that Moldova needs to resurrect agro-based exports, to raise their value by exporting to higher value markets, and develop service exports in order to provide job opportunities for underemployed tertiary graduates. To be successful in doing so, the government will need to implement deep fiscal and structural reforms to break the cycle, while taking advantage of productivity gains. Much needs fixing, and Moldova's public sector does not have the capacity to fix it all. Moldova's leaders need to reach consensus on a comprehensive and sequenced growth and poverty reduction strategy. This report sketches out what such a strategy should contain. The author suggests that geography and the Government's policy stance fundamentally shape Moldova's economic growth potential and the path and priorities that a growth strategy should follow. Government needs to accelerate reforms so that the country can emerge from the global crisis-induced recession with faster and less vulnerable growth. Business as usual will not suffice. The world's capital markets have become tighter, foreign investors more demanding, and export markets more competitive. In April 2009, Moldova's youth indicated that that they can no longer stand aside and watch Moldova fall behind, they have called for a politics of aspiration, and they will demand economic policies consistent with these aspirations. -
Publication
Tajikistan - Delivering Social Assistance to the Poorest Households
(World Bank, 2011-04-06)During the food, fuel, and financial crises of 2008 and 2009, the Government and donors found themselves without an effective mechanism for channeling assistance to the poor. In 2009, the Government of Tajikistan asked the World Bank to support improvement of its system of social assistance. The World Bank prepared this report to inform its technical and financial support for improvement of social assistance and also to define an initial mechanism for delivering benefits to the poorest households. At present, Tajikistan's system of social assistance exerts almost no downward influence on poverty rates. This note sets forth the case for reform and then presents some specific technical proposals for reforms. To trace the path to reform, this report starts with an assessment of the present system. The other main social assistance program is compensation to needy families whose children attend school. This program pays benefits to selected households if their children enroll in and attend school. The size of the benefit is negligible and is judged too low to influence school attendance. An important step in the reform will be to consolidate the two main social assistance programs, and if possible, all the programs, and replace them with a single targeted social assistance benefit program. This will improve targeting by decoupling social assistance from consumption of electricity and natural gas. This is important since some very poor people live in isolated mountainous areas where they are not connected to the electricity and gas grids, and thus would not benefit from these compensation transfers. This report presents proposals for scoring formulas (drawn from proxy-means tests) for urban and rural areas, based on data on the characteristics of households and observable proxies for consumption. Empirically, the most important household characteristics for predicting consumption are the number of children, the number of family members, and the oblast of residence. -
Publication
Romania - Reining in Local Government Spending
(World Bank, 2011-02-01)Sub-national Governments play an important role in the Romanian public sector. In 2009, sub-national spending was equivalent to 8.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Romania has frequently adjusted its system for financing sub-national government over the last decade. These changes reflect ongoing Government concerns over the performance of local governments as well as attempts to increase the transparency and stability of the intergovernmental fiscal relationship. The most recent reform proposals reflect a more immediate concern: the government deficit. In an effort to meet aggregate targets for cuts in spending, the Government has been debating measures to reduce the local wage bill, cut transfers to local governments, and restrain local arrears. The principal objective of this technical assistance has been to advise the Government on the design and implementation of such efforts, and to suggest directions for longer-term structural reforms. Romania has a two-tier structure of local government. The national territory is divided into 41 counties (judets) and the city of Bucharest. These are then divided into various categories of second-tier local governments, hereafter referred to as localities. As of 2008, there were 3,179 such jurisdictions, consisting of 2,855 communes, 216 towns, 102 cities, and six Bucharest districts. Both counties and localities have elected councils and directly elected mayors/presidents. The budgets of sub-national governments are dominated by spending on education. Education accounted for 30 percent of sub-national expenditure in 2009. But the role of sub-national governments in education is limited. Localities act as paymasters for the ministry of education, distributing teachers' salaries on its behalf. These payments are financed from earmarked grants. Localities have no control over staffing numbers or wage levels in the education sector. They are, however, responsible for operating and maintaining school buildings, a function which they finance from discretionary revenues. In much the same respect, localities act as agents of centrally-financed social assistance programs, such as the guaranteed minimum income. -
Publication
Armenia : Public Financial Management Reform Priorities
(World Bank, 2010-10)The objective of this paper is to provide practical recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the public financial management system as inputs to the envisaged Armenian public financial management (PFM) reform strategy. The paper aims at providing a comprehensive analysis of most of the key elements of the financial management system thus supplementing existing analyses undertaken for each function in isolation. By doing so, the paper aims at contributing to the reaching of consensus among key stakeholders to public financial management and the financial management reform process in Armenia including within the Ministry of Finance, line ministries, elected officials, control agencies, the interested public and international partners. The report is structured as follows: chapter two provides a review of budget formulation processes. Chapter three assesses budget execution. Chapter four looks at capacity, organization and motivation and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) support issues. Finally, chapter five looks at reform scenarios, management and funding.