Other Poverty Study
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Publication
Capacity Building in Fiscal Incidence Analysis: Lessons and Reflections from the Field
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-28)Fiscal Incidence Analysis (FIA) is the study of how fiscal policies benefit (or burden, in the case of taxes) people and households at different parts of the income distribution. The objective of this note is to highlight lessons learned in capacity building and skill transfer for FIA, including Commitment to Equity (CEQ) assessment. The goal is to uncover effective strategies for transferring the skills and capacities to government officials and other fiscal experts in countries around the world to enable them to carry out this type of analysis themselves. The note is based on interviews with experts, both within and outside of the World Bank who have been conducting FIA assessments and building and using microsimulation tools, often in close collaboration with officials from the government. The rest of this note: (i) describes the common engagement models and capacity building approaches that have been taken; (ii) assesses the extent to which these have been successful and distils lessons learned from some of these efforts, and (iii) identifies a few concrete ways in which similar efforts in the future could be made more effective. -
Publication
Inequality in Southern Africa: An Assessment of the Southern African Customs Union
(Washington, DC, 2022)The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is the most unequal region in the world. While there has been some progress in recent years, inequality has remained almost stagnant in the most unequal countries. Using an innovative framework, this report provides a systematic and comprehensive analysis of inequality in the region. The main conclusions are as follows: first, inherited circumstances over which an individual has little or no control (i.e., inequality of opportunity) drive overall inequality, and their contribution has increased in recent years. This is an important concern particularly because this type of inequality is not the result of people’s efforts. Second, lack of access to jobs and means of production (education, skills, land, among others) by disadvantaged populations slows progress towards a more equitable income distribution. In a context where jobs are scarce, having post-secondary or tertiary education is key to both accessing jobs, and obtaining better wages once employed. Third, fiscal policy helps reduce inequality through the use of targeted transfers, social spending, and progressive taxation, but results are below expectation given the level of spending. Fourth, vulnerability to climate risks and economic shocks makes any gains towards a more equal society fragile. Looking ahead, accelerating inequality reduction will require concerted action in three policy areas: (a) expanding coverage and quality of education, health, and basic services across subregions and disadvantaged populations to reduce inequality of opportunity; (b) strengthening access to and availability of private sector jobs. It is important to accompany structural reforms with measures that facilitate entrepreneurship and skills acquisition of disadvantaged populations, and to improve land distribution and productivity in rural areas; and (c) investing in adaptive social protection systems to increase resilience to climate risks and economic vulnerability, while enhancing targeting of safety net programs for more efficient use of fiscal resources. -
Publication
The Middle Class in the Philippines: An Exploration of the Conditions for Upward Mobility
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-19)A decade of rapid economic growth has supported upward mobility and the expansion of the middle class in the Philippines. While the Philippines’ record of economic growth has been sound, many East Asian countries have performed better, resulting in higher levels of economic mobility and more rapid middle-class expansion. This study aims to inform these efforts through an in-depth examination of varying factors that affect upward mobility and middle-class expansion in the Philippines. -
Publication
Braving the Storm: Poverty and Inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina 2007-2011
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-05)This note describes the trends in, and composition of, absolute poverty based on household expenditures, and is thus concerned, as a matter of policy objectives, with access of the population to a particular minimum standard of living. This should be viewed as complementary to the companion note on social exclusion based on Europe 2020 indicators including the relative at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate, focuses on low income in relation to other residents in a given country. In addition to the analysis of absolute poverty, the note also presents an analysis of inclusive growth, aimed at assessing whether income growth (losses) benefit (impact) differentially the lowest part (here, bottom forty percent) of the distribution. Other approaches, such as those including measures of poverty based on current income, or self-reported measures of affordability, or approached that differ in the way they set the poverty threshold exist. The choice of World Bank’s methodology for purposes of this report is primarily on pragmatic grounds: (i) it allows for the analysis of trends during 2007-2011; (ii) the same methodology was adopted in the previous report (World Bank 2009) to analyze poverty trends during 2004-2007, thus providing a longer trend; (iii) it allows for comparisons of trends across the entities of BiH. -
Publication
More Jobs, Better Jobs : A Priority for Egypt
(Washington, DC, 2014-06)Much of the current debate around the recent economic crisis in the Arab Republic of Egypt has focused on unemployment. Although unemployment is an important marker of labor market health, the jobs problem in Egypt precedes the recent crisis and is manifested markedly in other labor market metrics. Indeed, the link between growth and unemployment in Egypt is weak, particularly for men. This chapter argues that the reason for this weak link is partly related to decades of flawed industrial policies that have discouraged investment in employment-generating activities. Industrial policies, including those implemented in the mid-2000s, were never focused on mitigating market failures to promote the emergence of fast-growing, high-productivity firms. Instead, they have worked to preserve insider privileges, leading to growth in sectors that are not labor intensive. Policy makers therefore need to look beyond supply-side focused labor market policies to accelerate employment growth. -
Publication
Trends and Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in South Asia
(Washington, DC, 2013-06-16)Like many other developing countries, South Asian nations have been experiencing increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows over the past decade as developing countries get a larger share of cross-border investments once sent to developed countries. Nonetheless, South Asia's FDI inflows remain the lowest relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) among developing country regions. Over the next 20 years, more than one million new workers will be entering the South Asian labor market each month as the region's youth bulge matures and seeks employment. To absorb these workers and provide higher living standards and reduce poverty, South Asian countries will have to rely on more than just public investment. This report looks into the historical patterns of FDI in South Asia, examines its sectoral composition, and evaluates current policies and policy options that may help create an environment for increasing FDI flows. The launching point for this study is the substantial empirical literature that suggests that FDI is associated with growth, development, and productivity enhancement. The goal of the study is modest in that it does not seek to estimate the size of FDI spillovers on productivity growth, or address whether governments should actively subsidize FDI inflows over domestic investment as a means to enhance growth, but rather to understand whether the level of FDI flows as a share of GDP, its sectoral composition, and intra-regional flows are comparable to other developing regions and, if not, what might be some of the impediments to these flows. While FDI flows have increased over the past decade to South Asia, particularly from developed countries to South Asian service sectors, it has lagged in other sectors and remains relatively low overall. Overall, positive changes have taken place over the past few decades, while restrictions on FDI differ substantially among countries in South Asia. India's progress on FDI promoting policies has accelerated in recent years to make FDI policies more transparent, predictable, and simpler. Many other countries have also taken steps to improve transparency in regulations and reassure investors about the security of their investments in the country. Finally, the paper examines the determinants of FDI growth in South Asia. -
Publication
Analysis and Options for Namibia's Medium-Term Debt Strategy
(Washington, DC, 2013-06)Since gaining its independence 23 years ago, Namibia has established an enviable track record of political stability, prudent macroeconomic policies, moderate growth, poverty reduction, and natural resource conservation. The country has achieved these gains while facing constraints imposed by geography, legacies of apartheid and colonialism, and the challenges of constructing a national government. Daunting challenges remain, however. Namibia suffers from chronic high unemployment, the ravages of HIV/AIDS, and one of the world most skewed distributions of income. The structure of the economy has remained fundamentally unchanged since Independence: minerals and metals make up the majority of exports; the public sector remains the largest employer; and there has been little investment in labor-intensive manufacturing, which in many countries has absorbed low-skilled labor exiting traditional agriculture. This report uses the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to analyze options facing the GRN as it prepares the new Sovereign Debt Management Strategy (SDMS). This framework emphasizes the explicit analysis of relative costs and risks in a debt management strategy, the linkages between the debt strategy and other macroeconomic policies, and the strategy's consistency with debt sustainability. The report opens with a review of the GRN's current debt management strategy, the sources of financing available to the government, and the macroeconomic environment. The report then applies the MTDS analytical tool to analyze costs and risks of alternative debt management strategies that were developed by MOF participants in the November 2012 capacity-building exercise. It also examines domestic debt market development and contingent liabilities arising from government guarantees, two issues of special concern to the GRN. Finally, it discusses institutional arrangements and implementation issues. -
Publication
EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds
(Washington, DC, 2012-06)This study claims that despite the challenging external environment, EU11 countries did well in 2011. First, economic growth strengthened to above 3 percent (from around 2 percent in 2010) and the region fully recovered its output losses from the global financial crisis. Second, fiscal measures delivered reduction of around 3 percent of GDP in the EU11 average fiscal deficit. Third, the financial sector remained resilient to renewed concerns about negative feedback loops between insecure sovereign debtors and fragile financial markets. However, the good performance conceals important shifts in economic sentiment that occurred during the year. While the growth momentum was still strong in the first half of 2011, it slowed toward the end of the year, as the region started to feel the impact of lingering concerns about European sovereign-debt markets, creeping oil prices, and the global slowdown. With the downward trend in economic activity, labor markets remained slack. Unemployment rates hovered around those recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis with sluggish employment growth. The paper points out that the European economic growth model has delivered unprecedented welfare to the continent over the last half century. In spite of its remarkable success, several aspects of the European economic growth model require reform to ensure that it is sustainable. Among the priorities for many European states today are providing incentives for labor mobility, making public finances more sustainable, and adapting social security systems to demographic developments, and harmonizing regulation across borders. This note zeroes in on the EU11 region to explore what is driving their prosperity and growth. The main messages related to the drivers of growth and prosperity in EU11 are as follows: 1) Convergence; 2) Trade and finance; 3) Enterprise and innovation; 4) Labor; and 4) Government. -
Publication
In Search of Opportunities : How a More Mobile Workforce Can Propel Ukraine’s Prosperity (Vol. 1 of 2) : Summary Report
(Washington, DC, 2012-05)Ukrainians do not move often, and when they do move, they don't necessarily go to areas with good jobs and high wages. Internal mobility is about half of what is expected when comparing Ukraine with other countries. The lack of mobility is remarkable, given the availability of more jobs and better wages in several Ukrainian cities. Too few people are taking advantage of economic opportunities, and as a result, Ukraine's structural transformation has stalled. This is a sharp contrast to many other countries in Eastern Europe, where the transition to a market economy has been accompanied by a shift from widely-dispersed industries to a concentration of capital and production in a few areas, and from low- to higher-productivity sectors. Labor has largely mirrored the movement of capital and production. In Ukraine, however, labor is not flowing as smoothly to areas of high production. This report examines the mobility of workers inside Ukraine and their willingness to physically relocate from one area or region to another in search of better economic opportunities. The report explores the patterns and trends of labor mobility in Ukraine as well as the drivers and constraints of that mobility, and derives policy implications from its findings. Second chapter of this volume offers evidence of how a mobile workforce benefits the economy. It shows how the economic transition in most of Eastern Europe has been accompanied by the significant concentration of capital and people in a few areas. This has not happened to the same extent in Ukraine. Third chapter shows that what little migration we see in Ukraine is not necessarily going to the leading regions. For internal migration to lead to growth and better living standards, workers have to move to the areas of the country where productivity and therefore, wages are high, and where unemployment is low. Third chapter more over examines the factors that prevent Ukrainians from moving. Fourth chapter offers recommendations for creating greater labor mobility in Ukraine. It explains how addressing the institutional bottlenecks that affect internal mobility will allow more people, especially the poor, to access better jobs, accelerating growth and enabling living standards to rise. -
Publication
In Search of Opportunities : How a More Mobile Workforce Can Propel Ukraine’s Prosperity (Vol. 2 of 2) : Technical Report
(Washington, DC, 2012-05)Ukrainians do not move often, and when they do move, they don't necessarily go to areas with good jobs and high wages. Internal mobility is about half of what is expected when comparing Ukraine with other countries. The lack of mobility is remarkable, given the availability of more jobs and better wages in several Ukrainian cities. Too few people are taking advantage of economic opportunities, and as a result, Ukraine's structural transformation has stalled. This is a sharp contrast to many other countries in Eastern Europe, where the transition to a market economy has been accompanied by a shift from widely-dispersed industries to a concentration of capital and production in a few areas, and from low- to higher-productivity sectors. Labor has largely mirrored the movement of capital and production. In Ukraine, however, labor is not flowing as smoothly to areas of high production. This report examines the mobility of workers inside Ukraine and their willingness to physically relocate from one area or region to another in search of better economic opportunities. The report explores the patterns and trends of labor mobility in Ukraine as well as the drivers and constraints of that mobility, and derives policy implications from its findings. Second chapter of this volume offers evidence of how a mobile workforce benefits the economy. It shows how the economic transition in most of Eastern Europe has been accompanied by the significant concentration of capital and people in a few areas. This has not happened to the same extent in Ukraine. Third chapter shows that what little migration we see in Ukraine is not necessarily going to the leading regions. For internal migration to lead to growth and better living standards, workers have to move to the areas of the country where productivity and therefore, wages are high, and where unemployment is low. Third chapter more over examines the factors that prevent Ukrainians from moving. Fourth chapter offers recommendations for creating greater labor mobility in Ukraine. It explains how addressing the institutional bottlenecks that affect internal mobility will allow more people, especially the poor, to access better jobs, accelerating growth and enabling living standards to rise.