Other Poverty Study

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How Much Will Poverty Rise in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) Montes, Jose ; Silwal, Ani ; Newhouse, David ; Chen, Frances ; Swindle, Rachel ; Tian, Siwei

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is expected to drastically slow 2020 GDP per capita growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by about 5 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. This note presents results from an analysis of a comprehensive database of surveys from 45 of 48 SSA countries to examine the effects of the project fall in growth on poverty in the region. An additional 26 million people in SSA, and as much as 58 million, may fall into extreme poverty defined by the international poverty line of 1.90 US Dollars per day in 2011 PPP. The poverty rate for SSA will likely increase more than two percentage points, setting back poverty reduction in the region by about 5 years.
Alternative Social Safety Nets in South Sudan: Costing and Impact on Welfare Indicators -- Poverty Note

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06) Pape, Utz ; Pontara, Nicola

The purpose of this note is to provide the monetary cost of various social safety net targeting schemes that can be deployed to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. It is believed that gradually switching to the provision of social safety nets can reduce the chronic dependency on humanitarian (mainly food) aid. At the same time, it could help to alleviate reliance on patronage networks and switch a portion of the public spending from unproductive uses (e.g., military expenditure) toward strengthening the resilience and supporting the livelihoods of South Sudanese. In addition, a social safety net would address the fatigues of years of weak governance and ongoing efforts to find more direct, transparent ways to enable citizens to reap the benefits of independence and – once it materializes – peace.
Repbulic of Chad Poverty Notes : Dynamics of Poverty and Inequality following the Rise of the Oil Sector

(Washington, DC, 2013-09) World Bank

Chad's chronically unstable security situation has long undermined broad-based economic growth and sustainable poverty reduction. Since independence in 1960 Chad has suffered from sporadic political violence and ongoing tensions between different factions. The country's fragile security has been further compromised by interference from neighboring states and spillover effects from regional conflicts. However, after rebel attacks in 2008 and 2009, and following the recent conclusion of a peace agreement between Chad and Sudan, the security situation in the country has remained relatively calm, presenting a valuable window of opportunity for development efforts to take root. The objective of this Poverty Note is to examine changes in poverty and inequality in Chad since the emergence of the oil sector. It will focus on the evolution of poverty indicators from the 2003 pre-oil baseline captured in the Chadian Household Consumption and Informal Sector Survey, or ECOSIT2 to the more recent findings of the 2011 ECOSIT3 and compare current monetary and nonmonetary poverty conditions in Chad with those of comparable countries. It will go on to assess the impact of oil production on the non-oil sectors of the Chadian economy. Finally, it will evaluate the extent to which public expenditures in the social sectors benefit the poor by analyzing the progressivity of social spending.
Mali : Poverty and Gender Notes

(Washington, DC, 2013-05-31) World Bank

Mali is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of about $ 691 in 2010. Mali's steady per capita GDP growth was accompanied with a significant decline in the poverty rate, from 55.6 percent in 2001 to 43.6 percent in 2009-10. Mali's rapid population growth still has led to an increase of the overall number of people living in poverty, and is constraining progress in terms of per capita health and education outcomes. High fertility rates and gender imbalances are key drivers of Mali's poverty dynamics. The present report compiles three different notes, emphasizing the interrelation between poverty, demographics and gender imbalances. The first note discusses the evolution of poverty in Mali since 2001. The second note reviews recent demographic trends and related policies. The third note reports on the latest available data on females in business and employment within the formal sector. The compilation of these three notes aims to stimulate debates and the exploration of policy options to tackle poverty through its interactions with fertility and gender imbalances. It also highlights conclusion of each note.
Liberia : Strategic Policy Options for Medium Term Growth and Development

(Washington, DC, 2012-03-15) World Bank

This paper explores Liberia's policy options in support of the development of a Medium-Term Growth and Development Strategy (MTGDS) for 2013-2017 and its national vision, Liberia Rising 2030. At issue is the mismatch between available fiscal space and the enormous development needs that the government must resolve as it prepares to transform the economy into a middle-income country by 2040. This dilemma calls for the new administration to make trade-offs among various priorities if it is to achieve its aspirations. For this purpose, a Liberian version of a single-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal, or MDG simulations), was developed and informed by analytical studies as well as sector strategies prepared in support of Liberia's MTGDS. This paper examines the likely impacts on macroeconomic and social indicators of alternate strategic policy scenarios. A base scenario (designed to represent a central case for the evolution of Liberia's economy up to 2030) was first established, and thereafter a set of different assumptions were introduced for the mining sector, government spending on infrastructure and human development, and foreign borrowing. The paper is organized into five sections including this introduction. Section two presents the basic features of MAMS. The simulation analysis, which is the focus of the paper, is covered in the next two sections: the base scenario in section three and a set of alternative scenarios, which are contrasted with the base scenario, in section four. The final section summarizes the main findings and conclusion. Appendices one and two include a set of figures with selected simulation results and a brief discussion of the Liberian database for MAMS, respectively.
Uganda - Promoting Inclusive Growth : Transforming Farms, Human Capital, and Economic Geography, Synthesis Report

(Washington, DC, 2012-02) World Bank

At an average above 6.0 percent per year over the past two decades, Uganda' s growth rate was impressive by all standards. In parallel, poverty declined significantly, not only in urban areas, but also to some extent within the rural areas. This combination was possible because the key drivers of growth were labor-intensive services sectors, some of which are agriculture based. In fact, Uganda's growth process has reduced overall poverty faster than what has been observed in many other developing countries. This report addresses the issue from a double perspective: sectoral and geographical. From a sectoral perspective, it concludes that the agricultural sector needs transformation because it remains the primary employer; it is the country's main comparative advantage and bedrock for industrialization. More broadly, identifying sectors with potential will be important for employment opportunities, which in turn will be largely dependent on productivity levels and thus on the level of education and skills of the labor force. From a geographical perspective, transformation generally yields a concentration of economic activities that leaves some locations lagging in prosperity. This unbalanced growth needs to be supported with appropriate economic integration policies that have been analyzed in the report.
Republic of Congo - Employment and Growth Study : From Jobless to Inclusive Growth

(World Bank, 2011-12-01) World Bank

Unemployment, especially youth unemployment, is a serious problem for the Republic of Congo. Despite the economic recovery and political stabilization in the last decade, insufficient employment has been created, leading to high unemployment rates, especially for the young population in urban areas. This situation of jobless growth has been caused by a number of factors, including the dominance of the public sector in the past, the limited activity of the private sector, the undiversified economy, a mismatch between the skills required by employers and those offered by job seekers and a regulatory and institutional environment that is not fully supportive of employment creation. Action needs to be taken now to promote inclusive growth in the non-oil sectors and create sufficient employment opportunities. It is essential to remove the major obstacles to non-oil growth and employment creation. This employment and growth study seeks to provide recommendations to address the main challenges regarding non-oil growth and employment creation. The results of the study will help to inform government policy, especially in the context of the new PRSP that is currently being elaborated and the National Employment Policy that is under preparation. Based on extensive analytical work, actions are recommended to improve labor demand, labor supply and the regulatory and institutional framework.
Uganda - Demography and Economic Growth in Uganda

(World Bank, 2011-12-01) World Bank

Uganda has one of the youngest and most rapidly growing populations in the world. The most important demographic issue for Uganda is related to the age structure rather than the overall size of its population. A very young population represents a major challenge for Uganda in the short and medium term. In order to change its population age structure faster, Uganda needs to accelerate the demographic transition, namely the shift from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels of mortality and fertility. Once mortality (especially infant and child) and fertility rates begin to fall, young age dependency ratio will follow the same trend albeit with some lag. This will have positive - and quite possibly major - implications for the economic growth. Given the high fertility and reduced mortality over the last several decades, Uganda's population will be growing rapidly over the next several decades. Uganda's economic future looks brighter under assumptions of demographic change.
Ghana : Improving the Targeting of Social Programs

(World Bank, 2011-06-02) World Bank

This study, a draft of which was shared with the Government of Ghana in November 2009, provides a basic diagnostic of the benefit incidence and targeting performance of a large number of social programs in Ghana. Both broad-based programs (such as spending for education and health, and subsidies for food, oil-related products, and electricity) as well as targeted programs (such as Livelihood Empowerment against Poverty, or LEAP, the indigent exemption under the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), school lunches and uniforms, or fertilizer subsidies) are considered. In addition, the study provides tools and recommendations for better targeting of those programs in the future. The tools include new maps and data sets for geographic targeting according to poverty and food security, as well as ways to implement proxy means-testing. This executive summary provides a brief synthesis of the key findings and messages from the study.
Tackling Poverty in Northern Ghana

(World Bank, 2011-03-01) World Bank

Twenty years of rapid economic development in Ghana has done little, if anything, to reduce the historical North, South divide in standards of living. While rural development and urbanization have led to significant poverty reduction in the South, similar dynamics have been largely absent from Northern Ghana (or equivalently the North, defined as the sum of the administrative regions Upper West, Upper East, and the Northern region), which cover 40 percent of Ghana's land area. Between 1992 and 2006, the number of the poor declined by 2.5 million in the South and increased by 0.9 million in the North. In sharp contrast with the South, there was no significant decline in the proportion of poor in the population of the North. Ghana's success story in poverty reduction is the success story of its South. Finally, North-South migration should not be seen as detracting from the potential development of Northern Ghana. North-South migration is potentially a strong instrument for poverty alleviation. With the right human capital, many individuals could escape from poverty through migration to the dynamic South. This phenomenon however, remains marginal today. By the same token, greater North-South migration will most likely be a consequence of any development in Northern Ghana, at least for some decades. Indeed, with greater economic integration and better public service provision, the probability that residents of Northern Ghana will benefit from migration will tremendously increase, thus their incentive to migrate. Hence, one should not expect lower migration pressures from the development of Northern Ghana in the short run. On the contrary, attention should be paid to the quality of migration, which will entail strengthening social protection mechanisms to reduce negative migration, and raising human capital while increasing the absorptive capacities of cities to encourage positive migration. This migration to the South will further benefit the North, since migrants will add to the pool of remittances sent to Northern Ghana.