Other Poverty Study
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Publication
Aspiring Indonesia—Expanding the Middle Class
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09)Indonesia has seen tremendous progress in poverty reduction over the past couple of decades and, as a result, has made a successful transition from low-income to middle-income country status. As millions have moved out of poverty and extreme poverty, we have also witnessed the rise of Indonesia’s middle class, which now accounts for 20 percent of the total population, or 52 million Indonesians. This group important for Indonesia’s upward trajectory, but it still too small for the ambitions of Indonesia. Expanding the middle class will boost economic growth, strengthen an influential constituency for better governance, and widen and deepen the tax base. An expansion of the middle class, if accompanied by continued growth in the incomes of the poor and vulnerable, will also help to decrease inequality and prevent polarization of the country. One of the key development questions that Indonesia faces is how to expand the middle class. What will be required to bring the 115 million people who are no longer in poverty and vulnerability into the middle class? The future of Indonesia lies partly in the fate of this aspiring middle class, 45 percent of the population, so that they can both share in and help to drive the country’s growing prosperity. Government policy can play an instrumental role in expanding the middle class. This can be done by increasing the level and quality of education, and the skills of the population, and making sure there are well-paid jobs waiting for those in the aspiring middle class. It also means ensuring access to social protection to help lift these aspirers into the middle class and keep them there once they arrive, as well as improving the quality of the public services upon which they currently depend. Resolve to expand the middle class will place greater stress on government budgets. The government will need increasingly rely on the middle class, whose income taxes will finance much of the investment that a growing Indonesia will need. This will require a new social contract with the current – and future – middle class so that they will embrace the policies that both benefit themselves while also helping to expand their ranks, rather than closing off opportunities for others, and creating political polarization—as has occurred in some countries in the region in recent years. -
Publication
Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Russia: Deconstructing Russia’s Shared Prosperity Success -- The Role of Labor and Non-Labor Income
(Washington, DC, 2015-05)The Russian Federation has sustained significant growth over the past decade, accompanied by high rates of income mobility for all groups in the population. The positive outcomes in economic growth were accompanied by economic mobility for most households, reflected in substantial poverty reduction. Inclusive growth has led to a positive performance of the country in terms of shared prosperity - measured by the income and consumption growth of the bottom 40 percent of the welfare distribution. Notwithstanding the positive performance observed, the recent trends suggest sustainability concerns. Alongside the inclusive economic growth, economic mobility has improved remarkably in the country as reflected by the growth of the middle class. Upward economic mobility in Russia appears to be the result of both increases in average income levels and changes in the distribution of income. Given the positive outcomes observed, the question is, to what extent is Russia’s favorable performance in terms of shared prosperity sustainable? To this end, this note explores the main drivers behind the progress to date. The evolutions of the labor market, on one hand, and the incidence of the fiscal system, on the other, appear as the two main factors driving the observed poverty reduction, increase in the income of the bottom 40, and growth of the middle class in Russia. The note is structured as follows: section one gives introduction. Section two presents an analysis of labor income, including an overview of market dynamics and the reduction of wage inequality in the country. Section three presents a summary of the lessons derived from the analysis that can inform policy dialogue and contribute to ensuring the sustainability of the progress achieved in shared prosperity going forward. -
Publication
Braving the Storm: Poverty and Inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina 2007-2011
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-05)This note describes the trends in, and composition of, absolute poverty based on household expenditures, and is thus concerned, as a matter of policy objectives, with access of the population to a particular minimum standard of living. This should be viewed as complementary to the companion note on social exclusion based on Europe 2020 indicators including the relative at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate, focuses on low income in relation to other residents in a given country. In addition to the analysis of absolute poverty, the note also presents an analysis of inclusive growth, aimed at assessing whether income growth (losses) benefit (impact) differentially the lowest part (here, bottom forty percent) of the distribution. Other approaches, such as those including measures of poverty based on current income, or self-reported measures of affordability, or approached that differ in the way they set the poverty threshold exist. The choice of World Bank’s methodology for purposes of this report is primarily on pragmatic grounds: (i) it allows for the analysis of trends during 2007-2011; (ii) the same methodology was adopted in the previous report (World Bank 2009) to analyze poverty trends during 2004-2007, thus providing a longer trend; (iii) it allows for comparisons of trends across the entities of BiH. -
Publication
FYR of Macedonia: Measuring Welfare using the Survey of Income and Living Conditions
(Washington, DC, 2015-05)This note expands the analysis on poverty and income distribution reported by the FYR Macedonia SSO for 2010 and 2011. The present work is based on an analysis performed in-situ by World Bank staff on the offices of the FYR Macedonian SSO. -
Publication
An Update on Poverty and Inequality in Albania: Nine Stylized Facts
(Washington, DC, 2015-05)This note presents 9 stylized facts that emerge related to the evolution of poverty and inequality over the 2002 to 2012 period, especially from 2008 to 2012, as well as some insights into the drivers of poverty changes. It complements existing work on monitoring and understanding shared prosperity – the second corporate goal of the World Bank along with reducing poverty - in Albania and the Western Balkans. Albania poverty estimates are based on the Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS). The LSMS is conducted by the Albania Statistics Office (INSTAT) with donor funding and has been carried out in 2002, 2005, 2008 and recently in 2012. -
Publication
Transitioning from Status to Needs Based Assistance for Georgia IDPs: A Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-02)This report presents to the Government of Georgia (GoG) an analysis of the implications of potential policy changes to internally displaced person (IDP) assistance. A pressing question for policy makers in Georgia is the sustainability of status-based IDP assistance and what efforts can be made to tailor this assistance to favor the poor and vulnerable. Elimination of the IDP benefit has been subject to debate among policymakers. The World Bank has worked with the government to support improvements to the socioeconomic situation of IDPs in Georgia since 2008. The IDP Community Development Project, implemented between 2009-2012 improved service delivery, infrastructure, and livelihoods in over 40 IDP communities. Evidence on the socio-economic needs of IDPs has been collected by both government and donors; yet no comprehensive research has been conducted to critically compare their situation to that of the overall population. The objective of this research is to generate more evidence on the significance of the IDP benefit, and consequences that may be expected if this benefit is removed, in order to inform future policy decisions of the GoG in this regard. The report examines: (i) the policy and institutional framework and considerations that may support or obstruct a shift in IDP assistance; (ii) quantitative evidence on the socio-economic situation of IDPs as compared to non-IDPs in Georgia; and (iii) qualitative evidence on the significance of the IDP benefit, attitudes towards the benefit program, and vulnerabilities that may arise from its potential elimination. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for mitigating negative poverty and social impacts, should the government pursue a decision to remove the IDP benefit program. -
Publication
More Jobs, Better Jobs : A Priority for Egypt
(Washington, DC, 2014-06)Much of the current debate around the recent economic crisis in the Arab Republic of Egypt has focused on unemployment. Although unemployment is an important marker of labor market health, the jobs problem in Egypt precedes the recent crisis and is manifested markedly in other labor market metrics. Indeed, the link between growth and unemployment in Egypt is weak, particularly for men. This chapter argues that the reason for this weak link is partly related to decades of flawed industrial policies that have discouraged investment in employment-generating activities. Industrial policies, including those implemented in the mid-2000s, were never focused on mitigating market failures to promote the emergence of fast-growing, high-productivity firms. Instead, they have worked to preserve insider privileges, leading to growth in sectors that are not labor intensive. Policy makers therefore need to look beyond supply-side focused labor market policies to accelerate employment growth. -
Publication
Diagnostics and Policy Advice for Supporting Roma Inclusion in Romania
(Washington, DC, 2014-02-28)Romanian Roma families today constitute a large, young, and extremely poor ethnic minority group, facing exclusion from markets and services. Investments in Roma inclusion are essential for Romania to achieve its Europe 2020 social inclusion goals, and the considerable returns on such investments will lay a more solid foundation for achieving sustained, shared prosperity across Romanian society. Therefore, Roma inclusion is not only a moral imperative, but also smart economics for Romania. This report discusses what it will take for Romania to achieve the socioeconomic inclusion of its Roma population. The report identifies the most important socioeconomic achievement gaps of Romanian Roma. It identifies obstacles to Roma inclusion and examines the relevant institutional framework. It draws policy recommendations based on the observed gaps in outcomes and policies, informed by evidence on what works from international experience. These recommendations focus on providing support and enhancing opportunities for the next generation of Roma while helping to improve the living conditions of the current generation. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one focuses on Roma inclusion is smart economics for Romania; chapter two presents socioeconomic achievement gaps of Roma; chapter three focuses on obstacles to Roma inclusion; and chapter four presents priority interventions and policy measures. -
Publication
Repbulic of Chad Poverty Notes : Dynamics of Poverty and Inequality following the Rise of the Oil Sector
(Washington, DC, 2013-09)Chad's chronically unstable security situation has long undermined broad-based economic growth and sustainable poverty reduction. Since independence in 1960 Chad has suffered from sporadic political violence and ongoing tensions between different factions. The country's fragile security has been further compromised by interference from neighboring states and spillover effects from regional conflicts. However, after rebel attacks in 2008 and 2009, and following the recent conclusion of a peace agreement between Chad and Sudan, the security situation in the country has remained relatively calm, presenting a valuable window of opportunity for development efforts to take root. The objective of this Poverty Note is to examine changes in poverty and inequality in Chad since the emergence of the oil sector. It will focus on the evolution of poverty indicators from the 2003 pre-oil baseline captured in the Chadian Household Consumption and Informal Sector Survey, or ECOSIT2 to the more recent findings of the 2011 ECOSIT3 and compare current monetary and nonmonetary poverty conditions in Chad with those of comparable countries. It will go on to assess the impact of oil production on the non-oil sectors of the Chadian economy. Finally, it will evaluate the extent to which public expenditures in the social sectors benefit the poor by analyzing the progressivity of social spending. -
Publication
Mali : Poverty and Gender Notes
(Washington, DC, 2013-05-31)Mali is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of about $ 691 in 2010. Mali's steady per capita GDP growth was accompanied with a significant decline in the poverty rate, from 55.6 percent in 2001 to 43.6 percent in 2009-10. Mali's rapid population growth still has led to an increase of the overall number of people living in poverty, and is constraining progress in terms of per capita health and education outcomes. High fertility rates and gender imbalances are key drivers of Mali's poverty dynamics. The present report compiles three different notes, emphasizing the interrelation between poverty, demographics and gender imbalances. The first note discusses the evolution of poverty in Mali since 2001. The second note reviews recent demographic trends and related policies. The third note reports on the latest available data on females in business and employment within the formal sector. The compilation of these three notes aims to stimulate debates and the exploration of policy options to tackle poverty through its interactions with fertility and gender imbalances. It also highlights conclusion of each note.