Other Poverty Study
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Publication
Europe and Central Asia Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-Country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World
(Washington, DC, 2022-04)This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Europe and Central Asia region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita - and where available – other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region. -
Publication
Europe and Central Asia Macro Poverty Outlook, Annual Meetings 2022: Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World
(Washington, DC, 2022)Europe and Central Asia Macro Poverty Outlook, Annual Meetings 2022 contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Europe and Central Asia region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita - and where available – other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region. -
Publication
Croatia: Where Are We Since the COVID-19 Outbreak?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)This report focuses on the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Croatia as of March 2021. The data was collected through the rapid response household surveys representing Croatian households. -
Publication
Dynamically Identifying Community Level COVID-19 Impact Risks: Uzbekistan
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12-09)The authors build a new database of highly spatially disaggregated indicators related to risk and resilience to the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Uzbekistan. The outbreak disproportionately affects groups, the elderly, the poor, those living in areas under lockdown, and families who rely on remittance income are all examples of groups that are especially vulnerable to effects of the crisis in Uzbekistan. The authors assemble indicators summarizing concentrations of these and other risk factors at the lowest administrative level in the country, neighborhood-sized units called mahallas. Local official administrative statistics (published for the first time in this study) are combined with monthly panel survey data from the ongoing Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan project to produce an overall risk index, which is decomposable by dimension or risk factor to inform targeted and issue-specific responses. We then demonstrate a process for updating key indicators (such as employment or remittance flows) on a monthly basis using linked survey data combined with small area estimation techniques. These neighborhood-level results are intended to improve resource allocation decisions and are particularly relevant in Uzbekistan where local representatives are responsible for implementing key social and economic programs to respond to the outbreak. -
Publication
Croatia: Where are We Since the COVID-19 Outbreak?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)This report focuses on the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Croatia as of December 2020. The data was collected through the rapid response household surveys Survey representing Croatian households. -
Publication
Trade and Poverty in EU Regions: An Empirical Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01)This study builds on recent efforts by the World Bank and the European Commission in generating detailed poverty estimates at detailed subnational levels (the EU Poverty Map). This information is combined with estimates of subnational trade flow data for subnational regions between 2000-2010, as well as information on country and regional characteristics. Poverty estimates from the EU Poverty Map refers to a relative concept of poverty, measuring the share of population below a country-specific low-income threshold. This notion of relative poverty can be informative of disparities in welfare gains within countries often associated with trade, especially given the current backlash on globalization from the perception that it may leave some segments of the population behind. The negative relationship between poverty and trade is observed when both import and export openness are considered individually, but it arises more clearly in the case of export orientation. Export orientation can be associated with lower levels of poverty particularly in the poorest regions. The relationship between import exposure and poverty rates is not significant. Additional analyses show that export openness is more strongly linked to lower poverty in regions where production tends to be more ‘low-tech’. All together, these results suggest that both exports and imports are associated to lower poverty, but especially when it relates to higher export opportunities in poorer regions and where production is concentrated in relatively labor-intensive goods. While this analysis does not consider micro-level effects such as at the enterprise or household level that could possibly show greater heterogeneity, the results suggest that cross-country estimates in the literature that show a positive effect of trade openness on economic performance tend to hold at subnational regional levels in the EU. Overall, this study shows that poverty and the relative concentrations of poor people in the EU is an issue that policymakers should put high on the agenda. Opening markets and creating a more level playing field in global markets for export opportunities is critical for regional development. For certain regions however, policies to support the transition and the mitigation of transition costs may be necessary. While the empirical evidence is still building up, whether this assistance should be industry-based, versus locality based, is an important distinction, as trade shock effects seems to matter more by locality than by industry. -
Publication
Armenia International Outmigration: An Exploration on the Effects on Armenian Households’ Welfare
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10-06)This report analyzes issues related to international migration in Armenia and its impact on Armenian households’ welfare. The report uses microdata coming from two recent household surveys, the 2017 Russian-Armenian University survey, a nationally-representative household focused on international migrants and their origin households, and the 2017 Integrated Living Conditions Survey, nationally representative household conducted by the Statistical Committee focused on welfare measurement but also with information on international migrants. The report finds that among international migrants, there are some slight differences in the profile of permanent and temporary migrants. Permanent migrants tend to be younger, more educated and are more likely to come from secondary cities, in contrast to temporary migrants, who are a bit older, less educated and are more likely to come from rural areas. Employment prospects for both groups are very limited the moment they leave the country, with employment rates around 25 percent. They tend to migrate largely to the Russian Federation, where they are hired almost exclusively by firms in the private sector. Temporary workers overwhelming work in the construction sector, while permanent workers show more diversity in sectors of employment. -
Publication
South Caucasus in Motion
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-01)The people of the South Caucasus aspire for their countries to become strong middle-class societies, and they are on track to make that aspiration a reality. Two decades of social and economic progress have changed the societies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The notable improvements that people in the region have experienced are reflected in better living standards that allowed poverty to be reduced by half in the 12 years between 2005 and 2017. Yet, to consolidate middle-class societies, the governments of the South Caucasus need to do more to achieve the stability and resilience enjoyed by their more advanced peers in Europe and Central Asia. Sustainable economic growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity require that the full potential of all geographical and administrative areas, population groups, and economic sectors be realized. This boo analyzes spatial, social, and economic mobility in the South Caucasus. The book argues that Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have not yet integrated important geographical areas and population segments in full economic participation and social development. Economic gains have not been uniformly and equitably translated into greater welfare and opportunity among all households and individuals. The main conclusion is that sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and the consolidation of the middle class require that the institutional and physical foundations of greater and more equitable economic and social mobility be secured in the South Caucasus. Understanding and removing the constraints to the development of lagging districts; leveraging opportunities for agglomeration; linking geographical areas, peoples, and markets; fostering equality in access to better jobs; and making sure that high-quality education and basic services are available to all individuals and areas are crucial. -
Publication
Slovakia Catching-Up Regions: Prešov Region - Key Development Dynamics
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-01-01)Though the European Union (EU) is a development conversion machine for national economies, it is less so for subnational regions. EU accession countries have been catching up to regional averages in terms of economic development since they joined the union. The economic success of the accession countries reduced disparities in national GDP per capita, but since 2005 both EU-wide and in most individual countries the gap between most- and least-developed subnational regions has been widening. This suggests that in accession countries growth, and its benefits are concentrated in a few regions, mostly large cities and national capitals, while many areas fall further behind. Slovakia illustrates the difference between national convergence and subnational divergence. While Slovakia is considered one of the EU’s economic stars, it also has some of the union’s highest regional disparities. Slovakia’s impressive economic gains over the last two decades were led by Bratislava region, which in 2016 became the sixth richest region in the EU by GDP per capita. On the other hand, Eastern Slovakia, which includes Prešov, is among the poorest regions in the EU. This report on the Prešov region of Slovakia, reviews patterns of regional development in Slovakia, discusses opportunities and challenges of the Prešov region, and recommends policy actions for the region. -
Publication
Georgia Indebtedness Poverty Note: Analysis Based on Integrated Household Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11-05)There is considerable public concern about the level of household indebtedness in Georgia. The new regulation expected to come into force on November 1, 2018 addresses this concern by enforcing the responsible credit framework targeting commercial banks. The objective of this note is twofold. First, the note presents micro-level evidence using the nationally representative household survey to understand households’ borrowing patterns with supporting evidence from perceptions surveys. Second, the note examines plausible causal effects of over-indebtedness on household’s welfare. This paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides macroeconomic indicators and findings from perception survey as the background evidence. Section 3 illustrates the prevalence of borrowing among the households and identifies type of households that borrow from different sources. Section 4 shows results from the causal impact analysis of bank loans on household welfare. Section 5 concludes with directions for future research.