Other Poverty Study

351 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2119

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Poverty and Food Security in Brazil during the Pandemic

(Washington, DC, 2022-04) World Bank

In contrast with the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean, Brazil’s poverty rate is estimated to have decreased between 2019 and 2020 to 13.1 percent. Auxílio Emergencial (AE), a large emergency cash transfer program launched in April 2020, is believed to be the main driver of that decrease, because it more than offset economic losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, food insecurity (FI) estimates showed an opposite trend: Severe and moderate FI went up in 2020. This apparent paradox can be mostly explained by the way in which poverty and FI are measured: Measurements of poverty are based on annualized income estimates, while those of FI are based on the occurrence of an event, whereby the sudden, uncompensated loss of a job or reduction of benefits (such as AE) can turn into the loss of a household’s ability to feed itself in the short term. In 2021, both poverty and FI may have increased. Simulations suggest that poverty increased in 2021 to 18.7 percent. Meanwhile, about 18 percent of households reported running out of food in the past 30 days owing to a lack of resources, twice the pre-pandemic rate. Overall and food inflation, a sluggish labor market recovery with falling real wages, and the significant scaling down of the AE program are all factors in this trend. The war in Ukraine has pushed inflationary expectations upward. Given the projected 0.7 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2022, labor incomes are not expected to boost households’ consumption levels significantly. Coupled with the complete elimination of AE, poverty and FI may further deteriorate in 2022.
The Gradual Rise and Rapid Decline of the Middle Class in Latin America and the Caribbean

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05-20) World Bank

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) reported over 30 million Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and around 960,000 deaths as of May 2021. Official tracking data shows that Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina have the highest number of reported cases throughout LAC, which in turn is the region with among the highest numbers across all developing regions. Moreover, Brazil is the third-worst affected country worldwide, after the United States and India, with approximately 15.4 million infections. Dramatic declines in economic activity are expected throughout the LAC region due to the global pandemic. Unfortunately, many LAC countries entered the crisis with low potential economic growth and high levels of inequality, following the region’s recent period of stagnant growth. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis will likely reverse in a short time frame many of the social gains that took decades to materialize in Latin America and the Caribbean. In the past two decades, the region has seen a reduction in the number of people living in poverty by nearly half and an increase in the size of its middle class. Income inequality also decreased, as income growth has been primarily pro-poor in recent years. Despite variations across countries, most have experienced positive welfare gains since the early 2000s. However, the growth deceleration of 2014–2019 coupled with the dramatic fall in activity caused by the COVID-19 crisis will negatively impact living standards and well-being across the region. Poverty projections for 2020 suggest that the number of the poor increased in most LAC countries. Brazil, however, implemented a generous emergency transfer program that benefited almost 67 million people and lifted millions out of poverty. As a result, poverty in the LAC region is expected to decline marginally from 22 percent in 2019 to 21.8 percent in 2020. Had no mitigation measures been implemented, the region may instead have seen 28 million new poor in 2020.
Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19, December 2020 to January 2021

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021) World Bank ; UNICEF

This joint report by the World Bank and United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Papua New Guinea (PNG) presents the findings from two mobile phone surveys conducted in December 2020 and January 2021 in PNG. The World Bank survey, conducted in December 2020, was the second in a series. The UNICEF survey, conducted in January 2021, targeted re-contacting all 2,534 households from the World Bank round 2 survey with children under the age of 15, and achieved a final sample of 2,449. These results were also weighted using information from the demographic and health survey (DHS) to develop representative estimates for households with children under 15, 79.8 percent according to the DHS. The UNICEF survey included sections on household impacts as well as on the children living within the household. Compared to the rest of the country, markedly higher shares of respondents in the NCD noted deteriorations since June in situations related to theft, alcohol, and drug abuse, intimidation by police, violence by police, and domestic abuse, as well as higher declines in overall community trust, which can be an indicator of rising tensions. In addition, there were potential warning signs of the impacts of the prolonged crisis on children, with more than one-third of children exhibiting negative behavioral changes in the previous 15 days - though again a lack of baseline data limits the ability to establish a causal link specifically with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Compounding Misfortunes: Changes in Poverty Since the Onset of COVID-19 on Syrian Refugees and Host Communities in Jordan, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and Lebanon

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12-16) Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement ; World Bank Group ; UNHCR

COVID-19 (coronavirus) has had an enormous impact on nearly every country in the world. However, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were already facing difficult to extreme circumstances even before the pandemic erupted, making them particularly vulnerable. This report looks at the impact of the pandemic, associated lockdowns and economic shocks and other misfortunes which have compounded the crisis, such as sharply lower oil revenues in Iraq and the Port of Beirut explosion in Lebanon, as well as political instability in both. The report estimates that 4.4 million people in the host communities and 1.1 million refugees or IDPs were driven into poverty in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, and while this considers all of Lebanon, it only includes three governorates in Jordan and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, due to data limitations. A response commensurate with the magnitude of the shock is needed to prevent further misery. The poverty impact of COVID-19 and the ensuing confinement policies and economic contractions have been felt throughout the world, not least by marginalized communities. However, COVID-19 has compounded existing vulnerabilities or crises in Jordan, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and Lebanon. Syrian refugees – most of whom have been displaced for up to nine years – are particularly exposed given their perilous pre-crisis situation. Host communities in these three countries, who have supported and accommodated such large numbers of refugees, have also been heavily affected; all three countries were in strained positions prior to COVID-19, ranging from economic stagnation and high public debt in Jordan, to a collapse in public revenues due to international oil price shocks in KRI, to complete political and economic crisis in Lebanon. By March 2020, all three countries had witnessed their first cases of COVID-19 and introduced stringent containment policies ranging from partial closures of schools and shops to full curfew. While these measures were initially largely successful in containing the spread of the pandemic, they also led to a decline in economic activity across most sectors, particularly in the informal market. In Jordan and Iraq, the losses are estimated at around 8.2 and 10.5 percent of 2019’s GDP respectively. In Lebanon where the COVID-19 crisis is compounded by economic and political crises the losses are much higher, around 25 percent of GDP. Lebanon has experienced inflation of over 100 percent, largely due to its import dependence and currency depreciation. Unsurprisingly, given the magnitude of these shocks, recent rapid needs assessments and UNHCR administrative data show that refugees, who are highly concentrated in low-skilled jobs in the informal sector, have had to reduce food intake, incur additional debt and in some instances suffered eviction.
Dynamically Identifying Community Level COVID-19 Impact Risks: Uzbekistan

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12-09) Seitz, William ; Tulyakov, Eldor ; Khakimov, Obid ; Purevjav, Avralt-Od ; Muradova, Sevilya

The authors build a new database of highly spatially disaggregated indicators related to risk and resilience to the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Uzbekistan. The outbreak disproportionately affects groups, the elderly, the poor, those living in areas under lockdown, and families who rely on remittance income are all examples of groups that are especially vulnerable to effects of the crisis in Uzbekistan. The authors assemble indicators summarizing concentrations of these and other risk factors at the lowest administrative level in the country, neighborhood-sized units called mahallas. Local official administrative statistics (published for the first time in this study) are combined with monthly panel survey data from the ongoing Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan project to produce an overall risk index, which is decomposable by dimension or risk factor to inform targeted and issue-specific responses. We then demonstrate a process for updating key indicators (such as employment or remittance flows) on a monthly basis using linked survey data combined with small area estimation techniques. These neighborhood-level results are intended to improve resource allocation decisions and are particularly relevant in Uzbekistan where local representatives are responsible for implementing key social and economic programs to respond to the outbreak.
Monitoring the Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Djiboutian Households: Results from First Round of Survey

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09) Mendiratta, Vibhuti ; Gansey, Romeo Jacky ; Duplantier, Anne ; Konate, Sekou Tidani ; Abdoulkader, Omar

Djibouti had its first confirmed case of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on 18 March 2020. As an early response, the government suspended all in and out international passenger flights on March 18, 2020, closed schools and universities, and ordered a general lockdown starting from March 27, 2020. As of August 20, 2020, there were 5,374 confirmed cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Djibouti, with fifty-nine reported deaths. Even though the total number of cases increased sharply in the last two weeks of May and early June, they declined considerably in July and August. This report focuses on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) impacts on households in Djibouti as of September 2020.
September 2020 PovcalNet Update: What’s New

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09) Castaneda Aguilar, R. Andres ; Fujs, Tony ; Jolliffe, Dean ; Lakner, Christoph ; Gerszon Mahler, Daniel ; Nguyen, Minh C. ; Schoch, Marta ; Vargas Mogollon, David L. ; Viveros Mendoza, Martha C. ; Baah, Samuel Kofi Tetteh ; Yonzan, Nishant ; Yoshida, Nobuo

The September 2020 update to PovcalNet mainly involves the adoption of the revised 2011 PPPs for the estimation of global poverty. In addition, the coverage rules for reporting regional and global poverty aggregates have been reviewed, resulting in small adjustments. Historical regional and global aggregates are now reported with an annual frequency instead of intervals with varying lengths. Only two surveys have been added and some welfare aggregates have been revised compared with the March 2020 update. National accounts and population input data have been updated. This document explains these changes and the rationale behind them in detail. The data and associated estimates are used for the analysis of global poverty in the forthcoming Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report 2020.
Informality, Job Quality, and Welfare in Sri Lanka

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-17) World Bank

Informal employment remains a salient and persistent feature of the Sri Lanka labor market, with around 70 percent of the work force informally employed. There are generally three reasons to be concerned about high informality: poverty, productivity and public finance. This report focuses on the poverty and vulnerability aspect of informal employment, by showing that informal jobs are more precarious in nature than formal jobs and are associated with inferior working conditions and lower earnings. The three key messages of the report are as follows. First, The quality of informal jobs is much lower than that of formal jobs. Informal workers have more precarious employment arrangements and inferior working conditions. Their low earnings levels elevate the risk of poverty. Second, Stringent labor laws, along with the high cost of compliance and complexity of labor regulations, have encouraged informality. But formalization does not necessarily ease other constraints such as access to credit, reducing the incentive to formalize. Third, Reducing informality should not be in itself a policy goal. Reforms should focus on regulatory reforms that aim to reduce the cost and increase the benefits of formality, as well as on measures that enhance productivity.
COVID-19 Impact Monitoring: Nigeria, Round 3

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) World Bank

The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its economic and social effects on households have created an urgent need for timely data to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis and protect the welfare of Nigerian society. To monitor how the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is affecting the economy and people of Nigeria and to inform policy interventions and responses, the National Bureau of Statistics with technical support from the World Bank implemented the Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS). This brief presents findings from the third round of this survey which was conducted between July 6 and 20, 2020.
COVID-19 Impact Monitoring: Uganda, Round 1

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-20) World Bank

In June 2020, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, with the support from the World Bank, has launched the High-Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19 to track the impacts of the pandemic on a monthly basis for a period of 12 months. The survey aimed to re-contact the entire sample of households that had been interviewed during the Uganda National Panel Survey 2019/20 round and that had phone numbers for at least one household member or a reference individual. This report presents the findings from the first round of the survey that was conducted during the period of June 3-20, 2020.