Other Poverty Study
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Publication
Poverty and Food Security in Brazil during the Pandemic
(Washington, DC, 2022-04)In contrast with the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean, Brazil’s poverty rate is estimated to have decreased between 2019 and 2020 to 13.1 percent. Auxílio Emergencial (AE), a large emergency cash transfer program launched in April 2020, is believed to be the main driver of that decrease, because it more than offset economic losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, food insecurity (FI) estimates showed an opposite trend: Severe and moderate FI went up in 2020. This apparent paradox can be mostly explained by the way in which poverty and FI are measured: Measurements of poverty are based on annualized income estimates, while those of FI are based on the occurrence of an event, whereby the sudden, uncompensated loss of a job or reduction of benefits (such as AE) can turn into the loss of a household’s ability to feed itself in the short term. In 2021, both poverty and FI may have increased. Simulations suggest that poverty increased in 2021 to 18.7 percent. Meanwhile, about 18 percent of households reported running out of food in the past 30 days owing to a lack of resources, twice the pre-pandemic rate. Overall and food inflation, a sluggish labor market recovery with falling real wages, and the significant scaling down of the AE program are all factors in this trend. The war in Ukraine has pushed inflationary expectations upward. Given the projected 0.7 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2022, labor incomes are not expected to boost households’ consumption levels significantly. Coupled with the complete elimination of AE, poverty and FI may further deteriorate in 2022. -
Publication
Inequality in Southern Africa: An Assessment of the Southern African Customs Union
(Washington, DC, 2022)The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is the most unequal region in the world. While there has been some progress in recent years, inequality has remained almost stagnant in the most unequal countries. Using an innovative framework, this report provides a systematic and comprehensive analysis of inequality in the region. The main conclusions are as follows: first, inherited circumstances over which an individual has little or no control (i.e., inequality of opportunity) drive overall inequality, and their contribution has increased in recent years. This is an important concern particularly because this type of inequality is not the result of people’s efforts. Second, lack of access to jobs and means of production (education, skills, land, among others) by disadvantaged populations slows progress towards a more equitable income distribution. In a context where jobs are scarce, having post-secondary or tertiary education is key to both accessing jobs, and obtaining better wages once employed. Third, fiscal policy helps reduce inequality through the use of targeted transfers, social spending, and progressive taxation, but results are below expectation given the level of spending. Fourth, vulnerability to climate risks and economic shocks makes any gains towards a more equal society fragile. Looking ahead, accelerating inequality reduction will require concerted action in three policy areas: (a) expanding coverage and quality of education, health, and basic services across subregions and disadvantaged populations to reduce inequality of opportunity; (b) strengthening access to and availability of private sector jobs. It is important to accompany structural reforms with measures that facilitate entrepreneurship and skills acquisition of disadvantaged populations, and to improve land distribution and productivity in rural areas; and (c) investing in adaptive social protection systems to increase resilience to climate risks and economic vulnerability, while enhancing targeting of safety net programs for more efficient use of fiscal resources. -
Publication
Capturing What Matters: Essential Guidelines for Designing Household Surveys
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)The World Bank is an international leader in the methodology and implementation of household surveys, working in close partnership with national statistics offices (NSOs) around the world. This guidebook is a consolidation of field-tested best practices to implement, improve, and modernize nationally representative multi-topic household surveys for monitoring welfare and poverty. Offered as a reference guide for task team leaders (TTLs) within the World Bank, the guidebook is intended as a powerful tool for any survey practitioners (such as NSOs, development partners, educators, researchers, and students) implementing household surveys in low- and middle-income countries. This guidebook starts with survey design, the first step in any survey undertaking, with careful attention given to minimizing non-sampling errors. Subsequent sections are sampling; questionnaire modules, which form the core of this guidebook; followed by geographic information systems (GIS); computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI); and finally, documentation and dissemination of the resulting data. -
Publication
Building an Equitable Society in Colombia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-26)Colombia’s high level of inequality is a core constraint to economic growth and social progress. The country has one of the highest levels of income inequality in the world, the second highest among 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and the highest among all OECD countries. The disparities in income across adults grow from gaps that open early in life in opportunities for high-quality childhood development, education, and health care services. Inequality in access to good jobs further amplifies these gaps, making Colombia among the countries where inequalities are the most persistent across generations. Longstanding inequality across regions overlaps with the large gaps in welfare between Afro-descendants and indigenous Colombians and the rest of the population. The COVID-19 pandemic has further amplified disparities and threatens to have prolonged negative effects, but this is just one of many potential extreme shocks, including climate change, related disruptions, that could substantially widen the inequality gaps. Current tax and transfer policies at best have only a modest positive impact on these imbalances, so there is clearly ample potential to improve the redistributive role of fiscal policy in Colombia. Policy reforms across many areas could help to chart a more equitable future for the country. -
Publication
The Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in Cambodia, Report No. 5: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households Round 5 (1-21 March 2021)
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its effects on households create an urgent need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis on the Cambodian people, especially the poor and most vulnerable. To monitor the evolving socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform policy responses and interventions, the World Bank designed and conducted a nationally representative High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) of households in Cambodia. The survey covers important and relevant topics, including knowledge of COVID-19 and adoption of preventative behaviors, economic activity and income sources, access to basic goods and services, exposure to shocks and coping mechanisms, and access to social assistance. The survey will track the same households over 10 months, with selected respondents - typically the household head - completing interviews every 8 weeks. Monitoring the well-being of households over time will improve understanding of the effects of, and household responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in near-real time. This brief summarizes the findings of Round 5 (R5) of the HFPS. The information presented is based on a sample of 1,688 households, of which 379 were drawn from the nationally representative Living Standards Measurement Study Plus (LSMS+) survey and 1,309 from the list of beneficiaries of the conditional cash transfer program for pregnant women and children under 2 with an IDPoor equity card (IDPoor sample). IDPoor is Cambodia's national poverty identification program and official targeting mechanism for programs that support the poor. Unless otherwise noted, the results presented are primarily drawn from the LSMS+ sample. To trace the evolution of key indicators, the results of Round 5 (R5) implemented in March 2021 are compared against results of Round 4 (R4) implemented in December 2020–January 2021, Round 3 (R3) implemented October–November 2020, Round 2 (R2) implemented August–September 2020, and Round 1 (R1) implemented May–June 2020. -
Publication
The Gradual Rise and Rapid Decline of the Middle Class in Latin America and the Caribbean
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05-20)Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) reported over 30 million Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and around 960,000 deaths as of May 2021. Official tracking data shows that Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina have the highest number of reported cases throughout LAC, which in turn is the region with among the highest numbers across all developing regions. Moreover, Brazil is the third-worst affected country worldwide, after the United States and India, with approximately 15.4 million infections. Dramatic declines in economic activity are expected throughout the LAC region due to the global pandemic. Unfortunately, many LAC countries entered the crisis with low potential economic growth and high levels of inequality, following the region’s recent period of stagnant growth. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis will likely reverse in a short time frame many of the social gains that took decades to materialize in Latin America and the Caribbean. In the past two decades, the region has seen a reduction in the number of people living in poverty by nearly half and an increase in the size of its middle class. Income inequality also decreased, as income growth has been primarily pro-poor in recent years. Despite variations across countries, most have experienced positive welfare gains since the early 2000s. However, the growth deceleration of 2014–2019 coupled with the dramatic fall in activity caused by the COVID-19 crisis will negatively impact living standards and well-being across the region. Poverty projections for 2020 suggest that the number of the poor increased in most LAC countries. Brazil, however, implemented a generous emergency transfer program that benefited almost 67 million people and lifted millions out of poverty. As a result, poverty in the LAC region is expected to decline marginally from 22 percent in 2019 to 21.8 percent in 2020. Had no mitigation measures been implemented, the region may instead have seen 28 million new poor in 2020. -
Publication
March 2021 Update to the Global Database of Shared Prosperity: What’s New
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)Shared prosperity is the World Bank’s second Twin Goal, introduced in 2013. It is defined as the growth in household per capita income or consumption of the poorest 40 percent of the population. The Global Database of Shared Prosperity (GDSP) is the database that is used to monitor progress of this indicator. The March 2021 update introduces the 8th edition of the Global Database of Shared Prosperity. This note documents the data availability in this edition and the main differences with the 7th edition. -
Publication
March 2021 Update to the Multidimensional Poverty Measure: What’s New
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)The March 2021 update to the Multidimensional Poverty Measure (MPM) involves changes to the data underlying the multidimensional poverty estimates based on the Global Monitoring Database (GMD). This update reports new estimates for circa 2017, revising the estimates that were first published in October 2020. Some changes reflect the availability of more recent survey data for the economies already part of the GMD. Other changes are due to the addition of 9 new economies to the dataset, the release of new population data and new monetary poverty estimates. Notably, this update accompanies the launch of an online dashboard containing the data and results presented in this document. This includes an online tool that allows users to modify the weights used when aggregating the different indicators in the MPM headcount ratio. -
Publication
The Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in Cambodia, Report No. 3: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households, Round 3
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02)The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its effects on households create an urgent need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis on the Cambodian people, especially the poor and most vulnerable. To monitor the evolving socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform policy responses and interventions, the World Bank designed and conducted a nationally representative High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) of households in Cambodia. The survey covers important and relevant topics, including knowledge of COVID-19 and adoption of preventative behaviors, economic activity and income sources, access to basic goods and services, exposure to shocks and coping mechanisms, and access to social assistance. The survey will track the same households over 10 months, with selected respondents-typically the household head-completing interviews every 8 weeks. Monitoring the well-being of households over time will improve understanding of the effects of, and household responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in near-real time. This brief summarizes the findings of Round 3 (R3) of the HFPS. The information presented is based on a sample of 1,665 households, of which 481 were drawn from the nationally representative Living Standards Measurement Study Plus (LSMS+) survey and 1,184 from the list of beneficiaries of the conditional cash transfer program for pregnant women and children under 2 with an IDPoor equity card (IDPoor sample). IDPoor is Cambodia's national poverty identification program and official targeting mechanism for programs that support the poor. Unless otherwise noted, the results presented are primarily drawn from the LSMS+ sample. To trace the evolution of key indicators, the results of Round 3 (R3) implemented October-November 2020 are compared against results of Round 2 (R2) implemented August-September 2020 and Round 1 (R1) implemented May-June 2020. -
Publication
Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19, December 2020 to January 2021
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021)This joint report by the World Bank and United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Papua New Guinea (PNG) presents the findings from two mobile phone surveys conducted in December 2020 and January 2021 in PNG. The World Bank survey, conducted in December 2020, was the second in a series. The UNICEF survey, conducted in January 2021, targeted re-contacting all 2,534 households from the World Bank round 2 survey with children under the age of 15, and achieved a final sample of 2,449. These results were also weighted using information from the demographic and health survey (DHS) to develop representative estimates for households with children under 15, 79.8 percent according to the DHS. The UNICEF survey included sections on household impacts as well as on the children living within the household. Compared to the rest of the country, markedly higher shares of respondents in the NCD noted deteriorations since June in situations related to theft, alcohol, and drug abuse, intimidation by police, violence by police, and domestic abuse, as well as higher declines in overall community trust, which can be an indicator of rising tensions. In addition, there were potential warning signs of the impacts of the prolonged crisis on children, with more than one-third of children exhibiting negative behavioral changes in the previous 15 days - though again a lack of baseline data limits the ability to establish a causal link specifically with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).